ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Derek Ortt]

No doubter from center burst behavior IMO.

how can it be a center burst when there is 1. No center and 2. the greatest convergence/increase in low level vorticity is to the west?

['CaneFreak]

I agree, the best convergence is ahead of the convection. That is likely where the wave axis is

the convection is merely due to favorable UL divergence

agreed...have you been able to find any kind of center of late? Any center at this point would be Mid-Level of course...

nope... no center. Only WEAK wave axis

Thats what I figured

['CaneFreak]

No doubter from center burst behavior IMO.

how can it be a center burst when there is 1. No center and 2. the greatest convergence/increase in low level vorticity is to the west?

My questions exactly...

[wxman57]

I'll bet at least a TD by 2 a.m. Wed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

I'll take that bet! Maybe late Wed or Thu.

[Dean4Storms]

Good point Canefreak, that area does not seem to be moving much at all.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree, give it around 2 days in a more favorable UL environment and it will likely take off, but the key will be the ULL moving off to the SW of the disturbance or filling.

[Derek Ortt]

I'll bet at least a TD by 2 a.m. Wed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

I'll take that bet! Maybe late Wed or Thu.

I'll put 20 on that as well of no TD before Tuesday at 2 a.m.

[KWT]

I'd go with formation in about 48hrs from now so 2nd half of Wednesday. Conditions really aren't that great for development till then but its hard to ignore all the models which are progging some development, though maybe if the ULL sticks to the west the GFS may have had the right idea with not forming anything much, we shall see.

[HURAKAN]

Is Danny in the Making?
8/24/2009 11:25 AM

As the remnants of Bill are passing the southern tip of Greenland with the next stop set for the United Kingdom, we can all breathe easy now, right? Wrong!

AccuWeather.com meteorologists are closely watching another area of disturbed weather in the Atlantic.

As Hurricane Expert, Joe Bastardi has been cautioning this season, a number of tropical systems may form close to North America.

The area is just northeast of the Windward Islands and could potentially track
Steering currents are such that a rapidly developing tropical storm or hurricane may indeed be driven along or onto the coast this coming weekend.

The same steering winds could carry the system northward right along the coast.

The area of disturbed weather will drift just to the north of the Caribbean islands and will pass over part of the Bahamas this week with squally showers and locally strong thunderstorms at the very least.

The next name on the list of tropical storms for the Atlantic Season is Danny.

[deltadog03]

The shear is going to have to really relax before this can do whatever its gonna do... The shear is forecasted to lessen fairly quickly. As, I posted back on page 3, the models do build a very nice size upper anticyclone on top of this once it hits the bahamas. As far as track, its really going to depend on that trof split and where the upper low thats over the SE moves.

[deltadog03]

Keep in mind if it takes long for this to develop that consensus will just keep shifting left.

I expect things will change with that track guidance as its going to be a few days before anything gets going, so they should shift left.

I agree 100% IMO this could easily shift back towards florida to the carolinas. I think euro/cmc looks pretty good (from a very early look at things) In fact I think the EURO got closer to the FL coast on the 12z run

['CaneFreak]

I'll bet at least a TD by 2 a.m. Wed.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

I'll take that bet! Maybe late Wed or Thu.

I'll put 20 on that as well of no TD before Tuesday at 2 a.m.

I'll third that motion but he said Wednesday not Tuesday

[HURAKAN]

TPC's thinking

['CaneFreak]

The shear is going to have to really relax before this can do whatever its gonna do... The shear is forecasted to lessen fairly quickly. As, I posted back on page 3, the models do build a very nice size upper anticyclone on top of this once it hits the bahamas. As far as track, its really going to depend on that trof split and where the upper low thats over the SE moves.

Yep...I think the shear is beginning to abate as we speak...if you look at this link and go back three hours, you will see that the ULL is starting to weaken quite a bit...it is all gonna depend on where the core of that ULL moves...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

Todd Ferebee
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Blown Away]

Keep in mind if it takes long for this to develop that consensus will just keep shifting left.

I expect things will change with that track guidance as its going to be a few days before anything gets going, so they should shift left.

I agree 100% IMO this could easily shift back towards florida to the carolinas. I think euro/cmc looks pretty good (from a very early look at things) In fact I think the EURO got closer to the FL coast on the 12z run

I don't know if I would call it close to Florida, I think the EURO's closest point is @ 2-300 miles.

[deltadog03]

I dunno, thats the euro and its pretty close to FL

[wxman57]

Computer models without anything to initialize. Is garbage. Until a depression forms (LLC). The models are useless.

That would be an incorrect assumption. The models certainly see the vorticity associated with the wave. I would agree that the BAMs are useless, though, in this situation.

[gatorcane]

If the Euro shift some west though, it could get more interesting for Florida so I'm watching this one but not that concerned yet. 18Z GFS is well east of Florida....

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS looks way out there, still cannot see this Tropical Wave moving NW, if it was to close off and deepen now then it could make sense.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the GFS is a pile of cow dung this time

look at the low level vorticity initialization. Too much too far north. It is spitting out a vortex from the northern convection, not the wave axis