ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[wxman57]

My curiosity has been satisfied. I don't want to ever see another hurricane anywhere near the TX coast. A little rain might be nice, once every month or two. Right, irak?

[cycloneye]

I like fish. Even the ones that get away...

Same here.I like to track these kind of storms to see how they do in open sea.

[O Town]

consensus .??? the discussion speaks of such a thing that does not exist.. lol
this is probably one of the worst consensus of the models i have seen at least this season and over the last couple. lol

Except for Paloma maybe.......

[brunota2003]

They are consistent...consistently inconsistent =]

[ronjon]

No storm that fails to get west of 50W will crack that list below...there have been many storms with longer lifespans than ones on the list below. All comes down to "location location location" (i.e., storms threatening landfall, esp to areas with many posters on here). Erika is the furthest east of all the storms on that list. No way a storm recurving at 40W or east generates much interest overall....this is a system for the die-hards and for those interested in the life of a system in the middle of nowhere.

I imagine this thread will top 100 pages in a few days

Most number of pages in storm threads at Active Storms forum.

2009 gets one into the top ten,Erika.Will future Fred get to the list? It depends on how long it lasts.

1-Ike=676
2-Fay=671
3-Dean=583
4-Gustav=520
5-Dolly=422
6-Ivan=352
7-Wilma=282
8-Chris=265
9-Erika=223
10-Bertha=222

Wow, Katrina or Rita didn't make the top 10 and pitiful Erika did - man that's not right.

[jinftl]

The bulk show a system heading north at the end of the period between 32W and 37W. The distance between those two points is well within the margin of error as you go out in time 5 days. Many times, we see two distinct camps of models with systems...one suggesting a recurve and one showing a system moving more west and not being influenced by a trough. I have to agree there is pretty good consensus of this being a fish and turning north at the end of the period...whether it is at 30W or 35W or 40W is within the margin of error this far out. All you have to do is run these models with the same system moving at 15 mph and then run the models with the system moving 12 mph, and that alone would produce the spread of results seen.

Oh, XTRP (black triangles) isn't a model.....it is the extrapolated current heading. I know I didn't need to state that. lol

consensus .??? the discussion speaks of such a thing that does not exist.. lol
this is probably one of the worst consensus of the models i have seen at least this season and over the last couple. lol

[brunota2003]

There are way more members now than there was back in 2005

[jinftl]

A testament to the growth of this board!!!

No storm that fails to get west of 50W will crack that list below...there have been many storms with longer lifespans than ones on the list below. All comes down to "location location location" (i.e., storms threatening landfall, esp to areas with many posters on here). Erika is the furthest east of all the storms on that list. No way a storm recurving at 40W or east generates much interest overall....this is a system for the die-hards and for those interested in the life of a system in the middle of nowhere.




Most number of pages in storm threads at Active Storms forum.

2009 gets one into the top ten,Erika.Will future Fred get to the list? It depends on how long it lasts.

1-Ike=676
2-Fay=671
3-Dean=583
4-Gustav=520
5-Dolly=422
6-Ivan=352
7-Wilma=282
8-Chris=265
9-Erika=223
10-Bertha=222

Wow, Katrina or Rita didn't make the top 10 and pitiful Erika did - man that's not right. [/quote]

[Brent]

Wow, Katrina or Rita didn't make the top 10 and pitiful Erika did - man that's not right.

Katrina and Rita was before we had just one thread for a storm, there were hundreds of individual threads for both storms if you go back in the archives.

But it is also true the board has grown by leaps and bounds since then.

[CrazyC83]

Katrina and Rita were responsible for the explosive growth here in 2005-06...but back to TD7, I don't see much out of this, unless it stays south. Otherwise very early recurve, too early to be a fish.

[cycloneye]

jimfti,what do you think of the 18z GFS that bends back west around 23N and then zigzags?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[jinftl]

Good point....there used to be dozens of threads for each storm. Kudos to those folks who decided to consolidate threads for each storm.

Wow, Katrina or Rita didn't make the top 10 and pitiful Erika did - man that's not right.

Katrina and Rita was before we had just one thread for a storm, there were hundreds of individual threads for both storms if you go back in the archives.

But it is also true the board has grown by leaps and bounds since then.

[cycloneye]

Katrina and Rita was before we had just one thread for a storm, there were hundreds of individual threads for both storms if you go back in the archives.

There you go.

[jinftl]

As of now, an outlier with a sense of humor. There are two things I will look for to see if it is catching on to something....consistency over runs and other models jumping on board. Right now, this seems a pretty straightforward forecast....if one trough doesn't get it, the next one will. All east of the islands thankfully.

jimfti,what do you think of the 18z GFS that bends back west around 23N and then zigzags?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HURAKAN]

Fred at 11? Stay tuned!! Looking great

[cycloneye]

Is it my eyes but I see it a tad more south than earlier today.CV islands are not getting the real bad weather as expected.

[vbhoutex]

My curiosity has been satisfied. I don't want to ever see another hurricane anywhere near the TX coast. A little rain might be nice, once every month or two. Right, irak?

My curiosity was satisfied man, many, years ago. Alicia was almost like icing on the cake to the others I had gone through and I sure as hell don't want to go through another Alicia or Ike thank you, much less a hurricane stronger than that unless I am in a position that I will absolutely safe watching it and in a position where no one else will suffer from the fury of the storm(can we say impossible dreams?).

TD7 looks to become a hurricane before it is all over but the current and predicted weather patterns ahead of this TC all but assure us that we will have a fish storm.

[HURAKAN]

There is something fishy about what looks to be Fred sooner than later. Stay tuned to get more about this fishy subject.

[leanne_uk]

looking very impressive indeed. Just hope it doesnt curve as early as predicted and we get to see some more from this

[vbhoutex]

:D Looks like a fish given the first models tracks...so very good news for us in the islands. Hope this fishy trend will continue during the next couple of days, whereas as usual we could keep a small eye on TD 7 or maybe Fred?! ( tonight. ).

That is also good news for those of us in the CONUS.