WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION PARMA (19W)

[HurricaneRobert]

From their outflows it looks like Parma and Melor are affecting one another. A Fujiwhara effect would send Parma further south into the Philippines, would it not?

[wxmann_91]

It seems like Parma's deep convection around the pinhole eye is fanning out meaning it's not as strong around it and the typhoon is getting larger. I tend to think of it almost as if the cyclone is pushing that central energy outwards to expand it's size.

I really don't know if this is going to move north very fast, it seems like it's moving too fast westwards in the last few frames there. It would be a dramatic shift in speed and direction to make the forecast. Already the outer rain bands are affecting the Philippines.

It definitely isn't gonna move north fast. Storms in this area have a notorious history of being poorly modeled, where models underestimate the strength of the deep-layer ridge (sorta like what happens often in the MDR of the Atlantic).

Regarding the deep convection, looks like Parma drew in a lot of dry air, but its inner eyewall is somehow still holding up. The outer eyewall that was attempting to form never really closed off.

[supercane]

The same setup IS true for the Atlantic where many countries issue their own advisories

Canada, France, Cuba, Belize (which actually requires the government, not just the meteorologists to issue any warnings) and probably many others. Individual countries are responsible for issuing their own warnings 9which is how you get different timing criterion for the between France and surrounding states

We have no argument with the fact that individual national weather services are responsible for issuing warnings, although the NHC courteously groups these in their advisories, resulting, for example, the usual French delay in hoisting warnings, as you described. And they can and often do issue their own advisories. But it appears that in practice, Mexico and Canada defer to the NHC's positions and forecast, whereas we do not see the same with the West Pac national meteorologic services. For example, looking at Mexico's preliminary report on Andres (http://smn.cna.gob.mx/), it is clear that they basically used the NHC operational advisories (not the NHC best track, interestingly), and even copied the Wikipedia track which came from NHC. In the case of Canada, the same appears to be true if we look back at Hurricane Bill, with the intermediate advisories (corresponding to the NHC full advisory issuance times) having the exact same initial positions. And for Cuba, I recall a picture of Fidel Castro pointing to a printout of a NHC warning cone several years ago (?Hurricane Michelle). Similarly, looking at Meteo France's prelim report for Ana (http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/alaune/rapport_ana.pdf), they clearly again stick to NHC data, and their seasonal summary copies the systems named by NHC and do not list other systems (like PAGASA with naming even depressions or JTWC like with "TS" 18W). This examination shows that while superficially the same arrangement exists in both the Atlantic and W Pac, the de facto situation of the NHC's relative hegemony in the Western Hemisphere has not been copied by RSMC Tokyo.

supercane

[P.K.]

Based on that I added the word Super to title.

The thing is the threshold for a "super typhoon" isn't exactly set in stone like the other ones are. The other agencies which use the term have a much lower requirement and also have a term "severe typhoon" before it but following typhoon.

[StormingB81]

We are preparing for this in Japan. Just to be safe. with a typhoon like this better to be safe then sorry.

[P.K.]

** WTPQ21 RJTD 010600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 12.5N 129.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 15.3N 126.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 030600UTC 17.1N 124.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 040600UTC 18.6N 122.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =

[StormingB81]

JMA Still has the Typhoon comming up towards Okinawa. I dont think there is one main course for this storm. We just have to wait and see

[supercane]

Based on that I added the word Super to title.

The thing is the threshold for a "super typhoon" isn't exactly set in stone like the other ones are. The other agencies which use the term have a much lower requirement and also have a term "severe typhoon" before it but following typhoon.

Per JTWC (http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/frequently-asked-questions)

A tropical cyclone of 130kt or greater in the Northwestern Pacific is designated a "Super Typhoon."

I did not know that HKO also used the term, probably because this is new for 2009. Per the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) (http://www.hko.gov.hk/aviat/outreach/product/20th/TCclass.htm):

Typhoon 118-149 km/hr (>63.7149028 kt, 71.3606911 in 1 min wind)
Severe Typhoon 150-184 km/hr (>80.9935205 kt, using conversion factor of 1.12, > 90.712743 kt in 1 min wind)
Super Typhoon 185 km/hr or above (>99.8920086 kt, >111.87905 in 1 min wind)

(conversions in parenthesis calculated by Google calculator and added for ease of use). Learn something new every day. Interestingly enough, despite the more lenient HKO criteria, their current analysis lists Parma as a severe typhoon, although it is forecast to be a super typhoon within 24 hr (see: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_pos.htm).

Otherwise, I do not know of any other agency that utilizes the term supertyphoon. Who are these other agencies (and for that matter, who else uses severe typhoon)?

supercane

As the above conversions from 10- to 1-min peak winds show, even those are not "set in stone". However, with RMSC Tokyo designated the regional center and JTWC traditionally providing coverage before 2000 and conveniently offering 1-min winds to compare to the NHC's, it is not unreasonable that these two agencies are the most cited.

[Cyclenall]

It definitely isn't gonna move north fast. Storms in this area have a notorious history of being poorly modeled, where models underestimate the strength of the deep-layer ridge (sorta like what happens often in the MDR of the Atlantic).

Regarding the deep convection, looks like Parma drew in a lot of dry air, but its inner eyewall is somehow still holding up. The outer eyewall that was attempting to form never really closed off.

I think the same for the movement and direction. It's going to be shifted west perhaps more.

Regarding the dry air, there isn't any anywhere near Typhoon Parma, just tons of moisture around for a huge distance. That far south in the Wpac during peak season isn't likely going to have much dry air in any level of the atmosphere. I see this happen in strong systems a lot and I think it's just a structure change that makes it look like there is dry air being entered into it.

[StormingB81]

It seems like Parma's deep convection around the pinhole eye is fanning out meaning it's not as strong around it and the typhoon is getting larger. I tend to think of it almost as if the cyclone is pushing that central energy outwards to expand it's size.

I really don't know if this is going to move north very fast, it seems like it's moving too fast westwards in the last few frames there. It would be a dramatic shift in speed and direction to make the forecast. Already the outer rain bands are affecting the Philippines.

It definitely isn't gonna move north fast. Storms in this area have a notorious history of being poorly modeled, where models underestimate the strength of the deep-layer ridge (sorta like what happens often in the MDR of the Atlantic).

Regarding the deep convection, looks like Parma drew in a lot of dry air, but its inner eyewall is somehow still holding up. The outer eyewall that was attempting to form never really closed off.

Ive seen Typhoons take 90 degree turns. Anything is possible.

[HURAKAN]

WTPN33 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 12.4N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 129.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.7N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.1N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.3N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.5N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.4N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 19.0N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 19.6N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 129.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 19W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY
AS A SUPER TYPHOON OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND IS FORECAST TO
FURTHER INTENSIFY PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
LUZON NEAR TAU 48. LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
BELOW SUPER TYPHOON STATUS AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE
LUZON STRAIT. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSING STY 19W TO ENTER A REGION OF
COMPETING STEERING IN THE LUZON STRAIT. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL ON LUZON NEAR TAU 48. GFDN IS THE
SOUTHERN OUTLIER, MAKING LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON, WITH JGSM AND
GFS (AVNO TRACKER) MODELS REMAINING CLEAR OF THE LUZON COAST. AFTER
LANDFALL THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL FIELDS, WITH EGRR
AND ECMWF TURNING TO THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND NOGAPS
CONTINUING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT TOWARDS MAINLAND CHINA. FURTHER
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS TYPHOON (TY) 20W
(MELOR) TO THE EAST. WHILE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DIRECTLY
INTERACT WITH STY 19W, THE UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED INTO THE MODEL
FIELDS BY TY 20W MUST BE ADDRESSED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PRESENCE
OF TY 20W WILL MODIFY (IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH) THE STEERING RIDGE FOR 19W, CAUSING STY 19W TO
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE LUZON STRAIT, OR POSSIBLY TURNING
SHARPLY INTO THE WESTERN COAST OF LUZON (AS HINTED BY ECMWF AND EGRR
MODEL TRACKERS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. REFER
TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 033
WTPQ51 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0917 PARMA (0917)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 12.5N 129.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 160NM
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 15.3N 126.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 030600UTC 17.1N 124.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 040600UTC 18.6N 122.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 050600UTC 19.4N 122.9E 280NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 060600UTC 20.7N 122.9E 375NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Not looking as good

[cycloneye]

Yes,not as strong.

01/0830 UTC 12.8N 129.2E T5.5/6.5 PARMA -- West Pacific

[P.K.]

Otherwise, I do not know of any other agency that utilizes the term supertyphoon. Who are these other agencies (and for that matter, who else uses severe typhoon)?

The CMA uses both of these and has done for a while (I don't know how long). For them super typhoon starts at 2 min winds of 51m/s (99kts, but all their advisories are in m/s). I've also seen the HKO using Severe Typhoon. The JMA of course has three categories above 64kts but they don't include it in the name of the sytem (64-84kts, 85-104kts and 105kts+) but just list it on the advisory under the intensity.

Anyway the JMA 5 day path has certainly been moved to the west a fair bit now. http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/images/zoom5l/0917-00.png

[cycloneye]

JMA latest warning=105kts

TY 0917 (Parma)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 1 October 2009
<Analyses at 01/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N13°05'(13.1°)
E128°40'(128.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 300km(160NM)

[CrazyC83]

Any guess on how strong this peaked at? Knowing Dvorak does REALLY poorly with mini-pinholes, and the Raw T #'s were up at 7.3 (149 kt), I'd guess it was 150 kt at 0000Z last night, but has weakened greatly since.

[cycloneye]

JTWC decreases intensity=120kts

And decreses intensity along the forecast track.

WTPN33 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 13.1N 128.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 128.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.6N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 16.7N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 17.9N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.2N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 19.5N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.4N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 128.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS ENCOUNTERED AN AREA OF INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH, CAUSING PARMA TO WEAKEN TO TYPHOON
STRENGTH. FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY REMAIN CONSISTENT, WITH
LANDFALL OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON NEAR TAU 48
AND THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT AND NORTHERN SOUTH
CHINA SEA THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS
29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

the late weakening is due to land

JT is probably still well north fo the actual track