ATL : TROPICAL STORM GRACE

[wxman57]

NHC is truly bored.

[HURAKAN]

Another one running out of space

[HURAKAN]

In case you wanted to know the OHC.

[HURAKAN]

This year's Grace at least tops 2003's Grace!!!

[tolakram]

Holy cow,

I surf to the NHC page and there's Grace.

[somethingfunny]

Unbelievable.

[hurricanetrack]

I wanted to post that Joe B. is very angry about the naming of Grace tonight. He went on one of the worst rants I have ever seen from him on his page tonight. Called the NHC out big time- says they should be "ashamed". Very critical. I have read his stuff for years but man oh man, he is really up in arms over this one.

I do not understand- the daggumb thing has an eye, has separated from the front and is its own entity. They outlined that in the 11pm disc. Just thought I would throw that out there in case we see it in the news at some point. He is upset enought that I could see this getting some press.

[Macrocane]

Yes, everything indicates that it is now a warm core system, it doesn't have the strongest convection but if Danny was a TS I don't see why this wouldn't be one.

[FrontRunner]

NHC is truly bored.

I see. So do you believe boredom has caused them to identify and accurately classify a tropical cyclone?

Or do you dispute the fact that this should be classified as such?

[Stormhunter27]

Hey Mark - you got a link to Joe B's page? I'm interested in exactly what he's saying.

[DanieleItalyRm]

[vegastar]

Amazing! I have a TS 900km from my house:



What's wrong with the NRL website? I can't see Grace there.

Edit: I can see it now.

[Pedro Fernández]

Morning all from Spain!

At least NHC has sucumbed to the evidency LOL !

I would say GRACE is very similar to VINCE (2005) and GRACE could be or is a compact hurricane, as VINCE was.

Let me share with you the link to our website Cazatormentas.Net. We have been following to GRACE carefully!

http://www.cazatormentas.net/foro/segui ... 71696/#new

[vegastar]

Now at 60kts. The satellite presentation is improving despite all odds:



Another Epsilon??

[vegastar]

According to quickscat there is no closed circulation, at least in a Earth relative frame:



I think this is because of the fast 45km/h forward motion of the system.

[Cookie]

very interesting system, wrong end of the uk to have any effect on me.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to defy logic. Convection has actually deepened.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM GRACE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2009

...GRACE SLIGHTLY STRONGER...HEADING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.0 WEST OR ABOUT 585
MILES...940 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES.

GRACE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND GRACE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE NON-
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...43.0N 18.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092009
500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2009

DESPITE ITS ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION...INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GRACE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL BUT
IMPRESSIVE INNER CORE OF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION. MORE
RECENTLY...THERE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IN
A RING SURROUNDING A RAGGED EYE-TYPE FEATURE. BASED ON SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE CURRENT TREND OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHETHER SURFACE WINDS MATCH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE...
ESPECIALLY SINCE CONVECTIVE TOPS MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER 20C
SSTS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY
DVORAK ESTIMATES...OTHER THAN AN ASCAT PASS OF 45-50 KT FROM MUCH
EARLIER.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT GRACE HAS ACCELERATED WHILE MOVING A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF ITS PREVIOUS HEADING AND IS NOW MOVING
045/24. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN A DEEP LAYER OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
DECELERATE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE NEARS IT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ON
THIS TRACK...A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GRACE MOVES OVER
SUB-20C WATER TEMPERATURES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY SHEAR. GRACE SHOULD MERGE WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OR ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 43.0N 18.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 45.5N 16.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 49.0N 15.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Pedro Fernández]

We hace updated our site, Cazatormentas.Net

GRACE is a hurricane to me. Do you remember the words which were pronounced by forecaster Avila about VINCE?

[DanieleItalyRm]

http://www.sat24.com/homepage.aspx?html ... 20&yas=280