WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[oaba09]

Giant storm

That's enough to cover the whole country!!!! We're in for a BAD week!!!

[leanne_uk]

WOW this storm is just amazingly big. I did not realise till just now as I have been on the mobile looking today and everything looks big, so I tend to not realise. Seeing this on my full computer screen now is staggering.

[oaba09]

:uarrow: WOW this storm is just amazingly big. I did not realise till just now as I have been on the mobile looking today and everything looks big, so I tend to not realise. Seeing this on my full computer screen now is staggering.

I have never seen a typhoon this big my entire life

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: WOW this storm is just amazingly big. I did not realise till just now as I have been on the mobile looking today and everything looks big, so I tend to not realise. Seeing this on my full computer screen now is staggering.

Puts Rick in perspective, doesn't it.

[leanne_uk]

yeh it really does. I am just so worried about the impact this is going to have when it hits land. I prey everyone over there is safe and gets thru this.

[Derek Ortt]

this is going to slow and do a loop in all likliehood

MM5 was showing the current slowing. A trough is passing by to the north. May even have a brief NE motion, but then a motion back to the west.

[cycloneye]

oaba09,are the authorities there warning the population to prepare right now?

[oaba09]

oaba09,are the authorities there warning the population to prepare right now?

Since the typhoon already entered our area of responsibility, PAGASA has already issued warnings to the areas that might get affected.......The dams also have started releasing water in preparation for Lupit.....I'm expecting forced evacuations as the typhoon get's closer....

[ozonepete]

this is going to slow and do a loop in all likliehood

MM5 was showing the current slowing. A trough is passing by to the north. May even have a brief NE motion, but then a motion back to the west.

Wow! Interesting possibility, Derek. If the trough angles in just right and does so slowly enough, it could push the storm backwards (east) and then a little south. After the trough passes to the east of its center, LUPIT would resume its westward motion, which would complete the loop. My one doubt here is that I think the trough may come and go too quickly, in which case LUPIT will just slow down, show a northwest motion from Saturday evening to Sunday evening, and then resume its west-northwest motion.

Here's four GFS steering forecast charts for tomorrow morning, Saturday evening, Sunday Eveing and Monday evening. You can see the trough passing on the north side of LUPIT, first eroding the subtropical ridge, and then the ridge rebuilding north of it by Monday, allowing LUPIT to resume westward.

[ozonepete]

Here also is a recent water vapor image annotated to show approximately where the trough is right now. The southernmost yellow arrows show the where the bottom of the trough is right now. From watching the water vapor loops, I don't believe the trough will get too much further south than this.

[Typhoon10]

So is there any models, opinions or probability how close this storm could come to HK?

[ozonepete]

So is there any models, opinions or probability how close this storm could come to HK?

Most of the models go far enough out that they forecast all the way to next weekend. They are "all over the place", however, so they are not of much value right now. If you want to know if it's a possibility that a strong typhoon LUPIT could come close to Hong Kong next weekend based on the current computer runs, I'd have to say that yes, it's a small possibility. But it's way too early. The general rule is to not trust ANY weather forecast past 3-5 days. That means that you wouldn't even bother looking seriously at a possible path towards Hong Kong until Tuesday or Wednesday. We currently just do not have the science to make a trustworthy forecast that far out. Anyone who tells you different just doesn't understand weather forecasting.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

JMA 00 UTC warning.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 17 October 2009
<Analyses at 17/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°05'(15.1°)
E132°50'(132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE440km(240NM)
SW370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 18/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E131°55'(131.9°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E131°25'(131.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 20/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 540km(290NM)

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[HURAKAN]

More impressive

[Typhoon10]

So is there any models, opinions or probability how close this storm could come to HK?

Most of the models go far enough out that they forecast all the way to next weekend. They are "all over the place", however, so they are not of much value right now. If you want to know if it's a possibility that a strong typhoon LUPIT could come close to Hong Kong next weekend based on the current computer runs, I'd have to say that yes, it's a small possibility. But it's way too early. The general rule is to not trust ANY weather forecast past 3-5 days. That means that you wouldn't even bother looking seriously at a possible path towards Hong Kong until Tuesday or Wednesday. We currently just do not have the science to make a trustworthy forecast that far out. Anyone who tells you different just doesn't understand weather forecasting.


Thanks for that, really appreciate you sharing your knowledge. As you are probably aware, am very much a amateur and really just want to experience a "proper" typhoon.

I always look at the site, current storms and hope they come my way!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC Warning=85kts

WTPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.7N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 16.3N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.7N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.0N 131.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.8N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 18.4N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.0N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 132.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 22W IS
CURRENTLY SLOWING AND TURNING TO THE NORTH AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE
RIDGE ERODES, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH TAU 24
BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM, AND THAT OPENS THE SYSTEM FOR ANOTHER PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z,
172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

[drdavisjr]

So, if I am understanding correctly, now is the most critical time for the Philippines. Landfall location heavily depends on how Lupit (Ramil) is affected in this period where the ridge is weakest. If the storm does a loop, that would mean it would landfall further south? Am I correct?


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 047
WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 15.1N 132.8E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 15.8N 131.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 190000UTC 16.6N 131.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 200000UTC 17.6N 128.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 210000UTC 18.4N 124.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
120HF 220000UTC 18.8N 119.7E 300NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT =
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Both tracks from JMA and JTWC are almost similar.

[drdavisjr]

Wow...it's really huge!