Blown_away wrote:blp wrote:I think the key for a NGOM landfall will be for it to maintain its speed above 5mph. If it slows down or stalls just for a while it could make a big difference and stay out over the GOM. It seems to be slowing down a bit. Let's see what happens.
Not sure if it is slowing, may be the CDO expanding? Any stall or significant slowing over the next few days removes the N Gulf Coast threat IMO.
Keep in mind that the north Gulf coast threat isn't going to be from the
center making landfall. As this storm will be transitioning to an extratropical storm, it's wind field will expand significantly and the max winds will be well away from the center. Even if the center is 150 miles from the coast, its max winds may be on the coast with decreasing winds in toward the center (just an example, not an Ida forecast of RMW).
So don't get hung up on landfall. Whether or not it makes landfall, it'll result in widespread winds of 30-40 mph across the northern Gulf and coastal areas from LA to FL. But these winds won't penetrate inland very far.
Oh, and I expect it to reach max intensity in the NW Caribbean then weaken as it moves across the Gulf and encounters increasing shear. Maybe 70-80 kts peak intensity.