ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[WindRunner]

Extrapolated pressure from the most recent recon fix is 989mb...just fyi.

[cycloneye]

OB 21=989 mbs

URNT15 KNHC 071636
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 21 20091107
162900 1839N 08342W 8431 01496 0019 +166 +130 147061 063 056 007 00
162930 1838N 08343W 8431 01492 0011 +169 +132 148062 064 056 006 00
163000 1837N 08344W 8424 01496 0002 +175 +135 147059 060 055 003 00
163030 1835N 08345W 8430 01478 9997 +171 +138 148055 056 054 002 03
163100 1835N 08346W 8430 01472 9985 +173 +142 152057 059 055 001 00
163130 1834N 08348W 8430 01468 9973 +182 +147 150051 052 056 004 00
163200 1833N 08349W 8432 01462 9961 +195 +151 151042 043 056 004 00
163230 1832N 08350W 8431 01455 9949 +205 +156 153037 038 055 002 00
163300 1831N 08352W 8432 01449 9939 +208 +161 156032 034 052 001 03
163330 1830N 08353W 8421 01456 9932 +213 +166 165027 029 051 002 00
163400 1829N 08354W 8438 01435 9933 +202 +172 154027 028 046 003 00
163430 1828N 08356W 8422 01444 9920 +212 +176 162026 027 043 003 00
163500 1827N 08357W 8433 01426 9914 +211 +179 160020 021 040 003 03
163530 1827N 08359W 8424 01438 9917 +209 +182 183020 022 030 003 00
163600 1826N 08400W 8436 01423 9911 +213 +184 216012 017 026 002 00
163630 1825N 08402W 8423 01434 9902 +224 +185 281016 020 019 003 03
163700 1824N 08402W 8429 01434 9891 +244 +188 276021 024 016 004 03
163730 1822N 08403W 8428 01432 9909 +223 +191 249022 031 024 004 03
163800 1822N 08403W 8428 01432 9904 +231 +194 268023 029 034 001 03
163830 1819N 08403W 8432 01445 9912 +236 +196 272038 043 049 003 00

[SunnyThoughts]

So what time frame are we looking at here for the worst weather in the panhandle? Tuesday into Wednesday maybe?

[RattleMan]

Ob 21

Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
16:29:00z   18°39'N   83°42'W   843.1 hPa   1496m   1001.9 hPa   16.6°C   13°C   147° @ 61kt     63kt   56kt   7mm   OK
16:29:30z   18°38'N   83°43'W   843.1 hPa   1492m   1001.1 hPa   16.9°C   13.2°C   148° @ 62kt     64kt   56kt   6mm   OK
16:30:00z   18°37'N   83°44'W   842.4 hPa   1496m   1000.2 hPa   17.5°C   13.5°C   147° @ 59kt     60kt   55kt   3mm   OK
16:30:30z   18°35'N   83°45'W   843.0 hPa   1478m   999.7 hPa   17.1°C   13.8°C   148° @ 55kt     56kt   54kt   2mm   Suspect
16:31:00z   18°35'N   83°46'W   843.0 hPa   1472m   998.5 hPa   17.3°C   14.2°C   152° @ 57kt     59kt   55kt   1mm   OK
16:31:30z   18°34'N   83°48'W   843.0 hPa   1468m   997.3 hPa   18.2°C   14.7°C   150° @ 51kt     52kt   56kt   4mm   OK
16:32:00z   18°33'N   83°49'W   843.2 hPa   1462m   996.1 hPa   19.5°C   15.1°C   151° @ 42kt     43kt   56kt   4mm   OK
16:32:30z   18°32'N   83°50'W   843.1 hPa   1455m   994.9 hPa   20.5°C   15.6°C   153° @ 37kt     38kt   55kt   2mm   OK
16:33:00z   18°31'N   83°52'W   843.2 hPa   1449m   993.9 hPa   20.8°C   16.1°C   156° @ 32kt     34kt   52kt   1mm   Suspect
16:33:30z   18°30'N   83°53'W   842.1 hPa   1456m   993.2 hPa   21.3°C   16.6°C   165° @ 27kt     29kt   51kt   2mm   OK
16:34:00z   18°29'N   83°54'W   843.8 hPa   1435m   993.3 hPa   20.2°C   17.2°C   154° @ 27kt     28kt   46kt   3mm   OK
16:34:30z   18°28'N   83°56'W   842.2 hPa   1444m   992.0 hPa   21.2°C   17.6°C   162° @ 26kt     27kt   43kt   3mm   OK
16:35:00z   18°27'N   83°57'W   843.3 hPa   1426m   991.4 hPa   21.1°C   17.9°C   160° @ 20kt     21kt   40kt   3mm   Suspect
16:35:30z   18°27'N   83°59'W   842.4 hPa   1438m   991.7 hPa   20.9°C   18.2°C   183° @ 20kt     22kt   30kt   3mm   OK
16:36:00z   18°26'N   84°00'W   843.6 hPa   1423m   991.1 hPa   21.3°C   18.4°C   216° @ 12kt     17kt   26kt   2mm   OK
16:36:30z   18°25'N   84°02'W   842.3 hPa   1434m   990.2 hPa   22.4°C   18.5°C   281° @ 16kt     20kt   19kt   3mm   Suspect
16:37:00z   18°24'N   84°02'W   842.9 hPa   1434m   989.1 hPa   24.4°C   18.8°C   276° @ 21kt     24kt   16kt   4mm   Suspect
16:37:30z   18°22'N   84°03'W   842.8 hPa   1432m   990.9 hPa   22.3°C   19.1°C   249° @ 22kt     31kt   24kt   4mm   Suspect
16:38:00z   18°22'N   84°03'W   842.8 hPa   1432m   990.4 hPa   23.1°C   19.4°C   268° @ 23kt     29kt   34kt   1mm   Suspect
16:38:30z   18°19'N   84°03'W   843.2 hPa   1445m   991.2 hPa   23.6°C   19.6°C   272° @ 38kt     43kt   49kt   3mm   OK

Max:   18°39'N   84°03'W   843.8 hPa   1496m   1001.9 hPa   24.4°C   19.6°C   62kt   64kt   56kt   7mm   
Min:   18°19'N   83°42'W   842.1 hPa   1423m   989.1 hPa   16.6°C   13°C   12kt   17kt   16kt   1mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   842.9 hPa   1453m   994.4 hPa   20.3°C   16.5°C   35kt   38kt   44kt   3mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   


[cycloneye]

Extrapolated pressure from the most recent recon fix is 989mb...just fyi.

Code: Select all

16:37:00z   18°24'N   84°02'W   842.9 hPa   1434m   989.1 hPa   

[Derek Ortt]

may be as low as 987mb. They missed the center based upon the winds

[littlevince]

[tolakram]

Going without hurricane insurance in a hurricane zone is incredibly dangerous. It pains me to read stuff like this.

[blp]

OB 21=989 mbs

[cycloneye]

I have to go so anyone can take over.

[Ivanhater]

So what time frame are we looking at here for the worst weather in the panhandle? Tuesday into Wednesday maybe?

Monday night into Tuesday Sunny.

I don't either Dean. This will make the only 2 storms to make landfall in 2009, on the Florida Panhandle right?

[KWT]

Well clearly is strengthening at the moment, winds seem a little higher then the NHC expect but not quite to hurricane strength yet, but I think given 24hrs over pretty much prime waters and shear not seemingly being too much of a problem for Ida either at the moment. Can't see this staying a TS for too much longer, big question now is how high can Ida go?

[Sanibel]

Just from general estimates and observation of similar systems I would guess steady increase to 80KTS by the time it reaches the Yucatan Channel (Could be low if it RI's). (It's already at hurricane pressure)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This rapid intensification we are seeing is really of no surprise. I'm not quite sure why there are some so suprised by this? SSTs are boiling and shear is weak. Also when it emerged from Honduras, it had a great structure to start with. So far is behaving as I forecasted from the beginning...a movement that skirts the Nicaraguan/Honduras coast or goes just inland into the NW Carib...then reintensification into a hurricane or more in the NW Caribbean. Should start to head NW soon and go just near the tip of the Yucatan and into the Southern GOM. Still calling for a hook ENE or E at the end. Shear will increase in the GOM and the system will look more spread out in the Northern GOM, resembling some kind of subtropical system with alot of sheared convection blowing off into the FL peninsula and EGOM. Should have a big comma-shape look as it approaches the northern GOM, not as tightly packed as it does now.

It does appear that the southern half of FL may not be the target for Ida, thankfully. Had it gone that route, it could be alot stronger at landfall with less shear around. Looks like more of a NE GOM and maybe a panhandle issue. Plenty of wind will be howling across the Eastern part of the GOM and northern GOM the next several days with tight pressure gradients.

[Evil Jeremy]

Where does one get the data? I know its somewhere online, I just forgot the link lol.

[Evil Jeremy]

Never mind, found it:

000
URNT15 KNHC 071647
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 22 20091107
163900 1817N 08404W 8445 01434 9915 +243 +197 258058 062 049 004 03
163930 1816N 08404W 8424 01453 9922 +226 +198 257058 059 057 003 00
164000 1815N 08405W 8425 01458 9940 +207 +199 264056 057 058 002 03
164030 1814N 08406W 8424 01469 9958 +191 +191 281057 059 060 002 00
164100 1813N 08407W 8429 01468 9962 +199 +194 293065 067 057 003 00
164130 1812N 08408W 8413 01492 9969 +204 +190 294060 064 051 002 00
164200 1811N 08409W 8435 01483 9984 +200 +185 293052 053 049 002 00
164230 1810N 08410W 8430 01494 9991 +199 +183 287041 044 045 001 00
164300 1809N 08411W 8427 01504 0003 +189 +180 292038 039 042 003 00
164330 1808N 08412W 8436 01494 0009 +181 +178 303042 043 041 002 00
164400 1807N 08414W 8429 01506 0010 +190 +175 304039 043 038 001 00
164430 1806N 08415W 8424 01515 0013 +191 +172 292035 036 034 003 00
164500 1805N 08416W 8431 01511 0023 +182 +170 292035 037 036 003 00
164530 1804N 08417W 8430 01515 0028 +183 +168 299039 041 037 002 00
164600 1803N 08418W 8430 01520 0030 +184 +166 302042 042 037 001 00
164630 1802N 08419W 8429 01523 0035 +181 +164 306042 043 035 002 00
164700 1801N 08421W 8430 01524 0042 +173 +163 308042 042 035 004 00
164730 1800N 08422W 8429 01526 0046 +171 +161 312039 041 035 002 00
164800 1758N 08423W 8429 01530 0050 +165 +158 312035 037 036 001 00
164830 1757N 08424W 8429 01530 0054 +165 +156 307031 032 034 001 00
$$
;

[srainhoutx]

Where does one get the data? I know its somewhere online, I just forgot the link lol.

Here's one...

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[Evil Jeremy]

67kts at flight level found.

[brunota2003]

Flight level had 67 knots, with Smurf recording 60 knots (not flagged) on the surface!

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 071651
XXAA 57178 99184 70840 04584 99990 26814 13007 00587 ///// /////
92603 24436 15006 85345 21833 26506 88999 77999
31313 09608 81636
61616 AF306 0211A IDA OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 1842N08402W 1638 MBL WND 12006 AEV 20800 DLM WND 17
006 990842 WL150 13505 081 REL 1842N08402W 163618 SPG 1843N08401W
163801 =
XXBB 57178 99184 70840 04584 00990 26814 11884 24256 22850 21833
33842 21025
21212 00990 13007 11983 14004 22904 19507 33895 18010 44879 18017
55863 18509 66842 29509
31313 09608 81636
61616 AF306 0211A IDA OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 1842N08402W 1638 MBL WND 12006 AEV 20800 DLM WND 17
006 990842 WL150 13505 081 REL 1842N08402W 163618 SPG 1843N08401W
163801 =
;


Dropsonde supposedly in the eye...990mb with 7kt winds suggest right at 989 hPa.