ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

In this case the UKMO has been a southerly outlier throughout so its probably not right

[Frank2]

That's because it's driving on the left side of the road (sorry, KWT)...

LOL

P.S. Seriously, though, the rapid motion might be significant down the road (per the trough, etc.), but time will tell...

[hurricanefloyd5]

between the ukmet and the GFDL which one of the two models are more relieable with Hurricane Bill???

[OuterBanker]

I am now feeling confident of a fish now. Our local weather casters (Hampton Roads are our local stations) went as far as saying that we have no threats from any of the tropical systems here.

Also, one of my wifes best friends daughters is getting married in DC this weekend. I can now attend in a relaxed mood

[Emmett_Brown]

Per MWatkins blog last night, GFDL, HWRF, and Bams are all based on GFS model, which makes them naturally cluster together at times. UKMET is a completely different system. Not sure which is better, most of the chatter is that UKMET does not handle tropics well, so probably not much chance of verifying.

[brunota2003]

Right now, Bill looks a LOT like Hurricane Ophelia

[Frank2]

I'd have to say that the model consensus is about as solid as any forecaster I ever worked for would want to see them, so a recurving system seems to be the most likely outcome (though never say never)...

Frank

[hurricanefloyd5]

is it me or dose BILL look to be a double eyewall Hurricane???????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[patrickrox11]

With the hurricane accelerating more quickly, is there a greater chance that Hurricane Bill could affect Long Island/New England area (even though it is unlikely)?

[KWT]

Well its certainly got something up with its inner core as the convection in the center has now been surrounded by what seems to be convectionless air. Certainly has an interesting presentation at the moment. Also seems like its right on track or maybe even a touch right of where it should be.

Looks like its also heading north of 15N decently before 50W.

[hurricanefloyd5]

the GFDL model brings bill up to a cat.5 breifly!!!!!!!!!wow 135kts again wow!!:eek:


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 5d#a_topad

[hurricanefloyd5]

I hope not but chances of BILL pulling an ANDREW track is what? I hope it's slim to none!!!!!!!!

[Nimbus]

Interesting UKMET is the only model to cross south of the 15N -50W benchmark. That will be a good test of which model is verifying best for this time period.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Its too early to know if Bill will affect CONUS. 24 hours ago it was headed for Florida. Until the recurve starts and is apparent I will be a believer. Until then, watch the models shift around.


Not convinced.

[KWT]

I'd have to say that the model consensus is about as solid as any forecaster I ever worked for would want to see them, so a recurving system seems to be the most likely outcome (though never say never)...

Frank

Yeah I agree, sure you have got the UKMO as an outlier but its following the path the models have laid out perfectly so only really a threat to Bermuda and maybe Atlantic Canada.

[x-y-no]

Pressure at buoy 41041 (14.357 N 46.008 W) dropped 5.4mb in the last hour:


sustained winds NNE at 37 knots.

The center of Bill should pass really close to this buoy.

[x-y-no]

Correction, sustained wind at 41041 now 41 knots, gusts over 50 knots

[tolakram]

meters per second?

Someone go fix that buoy!

[x-y-no]

I hope not but chances of BILL pulling an ANDREW track is what? I hope it's slim to none!!!!!!!!

None - EC trough will see to that.

[x-y-no]

Data just updated for 41041:

Latest pressure drop 7.0mb