CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[Derek Ortt]

the east outflow has improved significantly this evening since Enrique has moved out of the way

[Sanibel]

Never seen a Hawaii track like that before.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive to say the least

[Derek Ortt]

Windsat does show a hint of a concentric ring. It however is very close to the primary so I wouldn't expect much weakening

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

[HURAKAN]

Aloha Big Island

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful Felicia

[HURAKAN]

06/0300 UTC 14.9N 130.4W T6.5/6.5 FELICIA -- East Pacific

Dvorak continues to show greater numbers for Felicia

[HURAKAN]

Enrique looks like a satellite of Felicia

[HURAKAN]

EP, 08, 2009080606, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1308W, 120, 937, HU

No change

[HURAKAN]

861
WHXX01 KMIA 060642
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0642 UTC THU AUG 6 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009) 20090806 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090806 0600 090806 1800 090807 0600 090807 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 130.8W 16.6N 132.6W 17.8N 134.4W 18.9N 136.5W
BAMD 15.1N 130.8W 16.0N 132.6W 16.8N 134.4W 17.4N 136.2W
BAMM 15.1N 130.8W 16.2N 132.5W 17.1N 134.2W 17.9N 136.0W
LBAR 15.1N 130.8W 16.2N 132.5W 17.5N 134.2W 18.2N 136.3W
SHIP 125KTS 121KTS 107KTS 89KTS
DSHP 125KTS 121KTS 107KTS 89KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090808 0600 090809 0600 090810 0600 090811 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.7N 138.7W 21.0N 144.4W 21.8N 150.1W 22.8N 155.9W
BAMD 18.0N 138.1W 19.0N 142.2W 19.6N 145.8W 19.7N 148.8W
BAMM 18.7N 138.0W 20.0N 142.4W 20.8N 146.4W 21.5N 149.9W
LBAR 18.9N 138.2W 19.3N 142.6W 18.7N 146.5W 18.2N 149.7W
SHIP 76KTS 49KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 76KTS 49KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.1N LONCUR = 130.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 129.3W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 127.7W
WNDCUR = 125KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 110KT
CENPRS = 935MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 135NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

EP, 08, 2009080606, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1308W, 125, 935, HU

Revised to 125 knots

[dixiebreeze]

Great graphics -- thank you! Anyone think it will brush Hawaii?

[littlevince]

If Enrique maintains better than expected, can this affect a little more Felicia track because of Fujiwara effect ? Is this kind of physic dynamic well understood/coded in numeric models ?

CONTRARY TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE INDICATING...ENRIQUE HAS REMAINED
DETACHED FROM FELICIA. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ENRIQUE
HAS SURPRISINGLY MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE RING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER...WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL BUT
STRONG AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... HHMM.shtml?

[cycloneye]

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009

FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. THE EYE HAS BEEN
WARMING AND HAS BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE ALSO
BEEN WARMING. FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS AGO...
AND THIS ADVISORY MAINTAINS 120-KT AS THE INTENSITY. FELICIA MAY
HAVE PEAKED NEAR 125 KT AROUND 0200-0300 UTC WHEN A WHITE RING
COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE EYE ON THE DVORAK BD ENHANCEMENT CURVE.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
300 DEGREES AT 9 KT. FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE HURRICANE
COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE RETREATS FARTHER EAST OVER MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF HAWAII WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND
THEN WEST BY DAYS 2 AND 3. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLUTIONS.
FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS
IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
FELICIA REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE
SHOULD BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 26C AND HEADING
TOWARD INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN
THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH
WEAKER VORTEX AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND
THE SHIPS MODEL EVEN DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. ONLY THE
HWRF AND GFDL STILL HAVE THE CYCLONE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON
DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BY NOT INDICATING
DISSIPATION BUT WEAKENING FELICIA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0900Z 15.5N 131.2W 120 KT
12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.2N 132.3W 115 KT
24HR VT 07/0600Z 17.4N 133.9W 105 KT
36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.5N 135.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 08/0600Z 19.4N 138.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 143.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 10/0600Z 20.0N 148.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 154.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[jinftl]

It could directly move over part of hawaii....thankfully as a shadow of its current self....by the time it says aloha it is forecast to be dissipated/td/weak ts at most.

From NHC Discussion:

ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH
WEAKER VORTEX AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND
THE SHIPS MODEL EVEN DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. ONLY THE
HWRF AND GFDL STILL HAVE THE CYCLONE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON
DAY 5.

Great graphics -- thank you! Anyone think it will brush Hawaii?

[CrazyC83]

Maybe it peaked at higher still, like 130 kt?

[cycloneye]

12 UTC best track stays at 120kts.

EP, 08, 2009080612, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1315W, 120, 937, HU

[srainhoutx]

[HURAKAN]

The white ring is back

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 06 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-070

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE FELICIA
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
A. 07/1200Z
B. NOAA9 0108E FELICIA
C. 07/0530Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
08/1800Z NEAR 19.7N 140.5W. A G-IV MISSION
FOR 08/1200Z.