ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[ncweatherwizard]

I don't see it moving to much further north in the near term

If it remains a weak storm, then perhaps. If the system deepens then it will move more northward. Even still, global models don't show any major disturbance breaking down ridging in the central Atlantic over the next five days. The low would just follow the periphery of ridging, and this would be an easy forecast if we knew the future strength of the cyclone. So also check out higher level steering currents for an idea of where it may track if it gets stronger (or see the 12Z or 18Z Canadian run).

Basically in a nutshell, the longer this stays weak, the farther south it will track. With strong shear ahead, right now I'd expect the center to track near the Lesser Antilles.

[southerngale]

It's disappeared from the map above... that has always meant something was either dropped or is being upgraded/downgraded, etc. It's still showing Invest on NRL, however.

it may have disappeared due to marshall clearing the cache trying to get Jimena to show as a cat 4 that she is rather than a cat 5 it had. Go see the thread about this for more info.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106427

Yeah, maybe so, thanks. I had just gotten back on here after a few hours and hadn't read much yet. Kinda weird though... that it would mess up 94L, but not other systems.

As for 94L, I know that looks can be deceiving, but it looks great right now.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Given that reaching 70W by Saturday night would be the furthest west pretty much any model shows, it wouldn't be for another 5 days or so after that this could even be in the gulf.....well after the holiday weekend.

By 'big one', do you mean disappointment? Just so some folks (esp the newbies) here don't take your words as the green light needed to go into panic mode, i am quite sure you mean that the probability of this being 'the one' is really really low right now, right? It isn't even a depression yet....my ceiling fan is producing stronger winds right now.

Hey now...we're Gulf Coasters. And our local weather guys are already watching this too. They are drawing attention to it so that we know about it BEFORE the long holiday weekend so it hopefully doesn't catch anyone off guard. Nobody is paying much attention yet. They should. This could be a big one...it only takes 1 to make a season memorable. 1992???
(certainly not saying it is coming to my area! -but a cross state journey is not out of the realm of possibility)

My quote... this COULD BE a big one. as in...a big storm with a serious impact on land. COULD BE is the key phrase there. The current size of this non-depression is already quite large. If it gets its act together, it will have a big impact on wherever it strikes (if it doesn't recurve) Also, I put in the disclaimer and all, so I hardly doubt any newbies would go into a panic over my OPINION. I laid out a couple of scenarios. None of which were a gulf coast hit, which at this time I feel is extremely unlikely...unless it were a secondary landfall.

The fact that it is not going to be a CONUS issue until after 8 days at the soonest (again, my opinion), would, according tot he HPC site, allow the front enough time to lift out/dissipate, which is why I am not counting on a recurve at this time. Unless the trough appears stronger and more steadfast in the long range, I am not buying an automatic recurve scenario.

[boca]

I've been away since last night. The models were saying 24hrs ago about building heights in the SE US. Does that still hold true?

[HURAKAN]

94L having a great night. Some may not shear about it!

[boca]

This is the best looking invest I've ever seen.By the way 94L symbol is not on the storm2k map anymore.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What are the chances that the convection dies off over night like we've seen with it before?

[cycloneye]

00z model suite.Look how they turn west to westnorthwest.

[jinftl]

While trending west....and this is important to consider as well....these same models are trending towards this being a weaker system down the road through 120 hours out. While a turn west is disconcerting to see represented, the whole picture has to be considered....and that may include this being a weaker system and/or a system that will see major disruption over hispanola.

For the model tracks i posted above, the corresponding intensities run from dissipated to Cat 1.

Current intensity models runs:




Compare to prior runs:

[Aric Dunn]

What are the chances that the convection dies off over night like we've seen with it before?

convection always dies off..then refires.. just a normal process

[jinftl]

75% chance it won't look this impressive by morning...the question will be, however, is it organzing and closing off a circulation. This will not become a td based on convection alone. A low needs to close off at the surface.

What are the chances that the convection dies off over night like we've seen with it before?

[Aric Dunn]

i'll tell you what though it takes some serious lift to maintian those -80's tops

that is just amazing.. lol just hanna last year but bigger

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[jinftl]

An upgrade based on convection alone...with no evidence of a closed circulation would be grounds for firing the entire NHC. Convection alone won't make this a td. If there is surface evidence of closed circulation....either by buoys, satellite, ships, etc....then i agree, this is strengthening and organizing. No closed low, no matter what the convection, and this isn't ready to get going yet.

What are they waiting for? Will they go directly to a TS? This thing looks awesome right now.

[Evil Jeremy]

I've been away since last night. The models were saying 24hrs ago about building heights in the SE US. Does that still hold true?

At the moment, yep.

[I-wall]

I am amazed that this is not a TC. Anyone know where to find the latest qscat info?

[Aric Dunn]

I am amazed that this is not a TC. Anyone know where to find the latest qscat info?

nothing new till the morning.. best we will have is microwave images later tonight.

[jinftl]

with no evidence of a closed circulation, it is still just a massive thunderstorm complex. Satellite images for weak and developing systems can be misleading.....no circulation at the surface, then no td even for a while.

I am amazed that this is not a TC.

[Orrie]

Im aware that this may not be this impressive in the am ..however if this is not currently at the very least a T.D. ..than this is the most impressive cluster of thunderstorms I have ever seen in the Atlantic Basin that isnt tied to a low level circulation ... I have seen poorer looking hurricanes. JMO take it for what its worth... typically it isnt worth a dime

[Aric Dunn]

with no evidence of a close circulation, it is still just a massive thunderstorm complex. Satellite images for weak and developing systems can be misleading.....no circulation at the surface, then no td even for a while.

I am amazed that this is not a TC.

well there is evidence of a closed circ...microwaves images earlier indicated something was closing off. but we have to wait and see

[Aric Dunn]

if there is no close circ under there with all the vorticity that was there all day .. i would be completely shocked..