ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

and keep in mind, models are in general agreement about recurve in about 5 days. may have the first true fish storm

[jinftl]

no disagreeing the mass isnt impressive.....but find me a report of a west wind anywhere, then we can talk developing system. Such a key requirement is being overlooked due to cold cloud tops. This may be on its way, but to talk about upgrading when there is no evidence that the core structure that is requisite for a tropical system to develop is actually being found is jumping the gun.

Im aware that this may not be this impressive in the am ..however if this is not currently at the very least a T.D. ..than this is the most impressive cluster of thunderstorms I have ever seen in the Atlantic Basin that isnt tied to a low level circulation ... I have seen poorer looking hurricanes. JMO take it for what its worth... typically it isnt worth a dime

[Evil Jeremy]

and keep in mind, models are in general agreement about recurve in about 5 days. may have the first true fish storm

Where are you getting this from? The only model I see actually re curving this in 5 days, and making it a distinct recurve, is the CMC.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0258 UTC TUE SEP 1 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090901 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090901 0000 090901 1200 090902 0000 090902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 54.9W 15.5N 56.9W 16.3N 58.5W 16.8N 60.0W
BAMD 14.6N 54.9W 15.5N 56.8W 16.2N 58.4W 16.7N 59.8W
BAMM 14.6N 54.9W 15.3N 56.7W 16.0N 58.1W 16.4N 59.4W
LBAR 14.6N 54.9W 15.6N 57.1W 16.2N 59.2W 16.5N 61.3W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090903 0000 090904 0000 090905 0000 090906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 61.4W 18.9N 64.2W 20.2N 67.5W 20.9N 71.3W
BAMD 17.1N 61.1W 17.7N 63.7W 18.3N 66.3W 18.2N 68.8W
BAMM 16.7N 60.4W 17.2N 62.4W 17.7N 64.8W 17.6N 67.8W
LBAR 17.0N 63.5W 18.1N 67.5W 19.8N 70.5W 19.6N 71.7W
SHIP 55KTS 73KTS 79KTS 81KTS
DSHP 55KTS 73KTS 79KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 54.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 52.3W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 49.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[boca]

and keep in mind, models are in general agreement about recurve in about 5 days. may have the first true fish storm

Its not a fish storm if it hits the NE Caribbean area. Some of the models have been trending more west that jinftl posted.

[Aric Dunn]

no disagreeing the mass isnt impressive.....but find me a report of a west wind anywhere, then we can talk developing system. Such a key requirement is being overlooked due to cold cloud tops. This may be on its way, but to talk about upgrading when there is no evidence that the core structure that is requisite for a tropical system to develop is actually being found is jumping the gun.

Im aware that this may not be this impressive in the am ..however if this is not currently at the very least a T.D. ..than this is the most impressive cluster of thunderstorms I have ever seen in the Atlantic Basin that isnt tied to a low level circulation ... I have seen poorer looking hurricanes. JMO take it for what its worth... typically it isnt worth a dime

well thats the problem we have nothing near by..
we had SW winds earlier today.. and NW as well..
the circ was broad very broad today but the wind field was closed according the last Ascat earlier..

it is likely that there is a closed circ in there.. otherwise its very hard to maintain convection like that without serious convergence associated with a circ.. it can happen but not very common

[boca]

Derek are you seeing something beyond 5 days that make you say that?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Updated 00Z Models

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0258 UTC TUE SEP 1 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090901 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090901 0000 090901 1200 090902 0000 090902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 54.9W 15.5N 56.9W 16.3N 58.5W 16.8N 60.0W
BAMD 14.6N 54.9W 15.5N 56.8W 16.2N 58.4W 16.7N 59.8W
BAMM 14.6N 54.9W 15.3N 56.7W 16.0N 58.1W 16.4N 59.4W
LBAR 14.6N 54.9W 15.6N 57.1W 16.2N 59.2W 16.5N 61.3W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090903 0000 090904 0000 090905 0000 090906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 61.4W 18.9N 64.2W 20.2N 67.5W 20.9N 71.3W
BAMD 17.1N 61.1W 17.7N 63.7W 18.3N 66.3W 18.2N 68.8W
BAMM 16.7N 60.4W 17.2N 62.4W 17.7N 64.8W 17.6N 67.8W
LBAR 17.0N 63.5W 18.1N 67.5W 19.8N 70.5W 19.6N 71.7W
SHIP 55KTS 73KTS 79KTS 81KTS
DSHP 55KTS 73KTS 79KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 54.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 52.3W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 49.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The new tracks of the BAMS after updated 00z run.

[jinftl]

There's at least some support for the recurve derek alluded to

Updated 00Z Models

[paintplaye]

I know this image has been posted here before and I am not trying to steal it from whoever posts it the most, but I really like this image due to the overall movement can be easily watched:

[btangy]

From the AMSUB 85GHz pass at 00:37Z, it looks like the center may be displaced to the W of the deepest convection indicating that the disturbance is still battling some SW-ly shear. CIMSS analysis indicates that there is a very sharp gradient of shear in the vicinity and any N-ward reformation of the center would subject 94L to high amounts of shear. Could very well be a transient blowup of convection, but perhaps it will be persistent enough to induce a tight LLC and classify the system as a TD by morning.

94L will have to stay away from the high shear zone to the N if it is to have any chance of developing. Right now it's right on the cusp. There are 3 very large upper level lows patrolling the subtropical Atlantic ready to tear 94L apart if it dares get to close to any one. Convection is doing a number on the one N of Hispanola while the one around 60W does appear to be moving quickly WNW-ward while another one around 40W is moving SW-ward, but not fast enough to catch up. I don't really have much confidence in how the global models are handling these complex features, especially given the amount of popcorn convection likely introducing lots error growth in the long term.

[Evil Jeremy]

There's at least some support for the recurve derek alluded to

Updated 00Z Models

Its only the CMC, and the Clipper which is not really a model at all.

[jinftl]

In another 24 or 48 hours, these model runs will possibly be very telling.....either showing a system approaching florida at the end of the 120 hours....or recurving north...or dissipating over hispanola

There's at least some support for the recurve derek alluded to

Updated 00Z Models

Its only the CMC, and the Clipper which is not really a model at all.

[Bocadude85]

There's at least some support for the recurve derek alluded to

Updated 00Z Models

Yup the CMC and the Clipper both recurve this...

[Aric Dunn]

From the AMSUB 85GHz pass at 00:37Z, it looks like the center may be displaced to the W of the deepest convection indicating that the disturbance is still battling some SW-ly shear. CIMSS analysis indicates that there is a very sharp gradient of shear in the vicinity and any N-ward reformation of the center would subject 94L to high amounts of shear. Could very well be a transient blowup of convection, but perhaps it will be persistent enough to induce a tight LLC and classify the system as a TD by morning.

94L will have to stay away from the high shear zone to the N if it is to have any chance of developing. Right now it's right on the cusp. There are 3 very large upper level lows patrolling the subtropical Atlantic ready to tear 94L apart if it dares get to close to any one. Convection is doing a number on the one N of Hispanola while the one around 60W does appear to be moving quickly WNW-ward while another one around 40W is moving SW-ward, but not fast enough to catch up. I don't really have much confidence in how the global models are handling these complex features, especially given the amount of popcorn convection likely introducing lots error growth in the long term.

yeah about 6 pages back i outlined those passes where the center may have relocated.. the key thing is is that the shear axis has been progressing west and lifting north for the past 12 hours or so

[Recurve]

This CIMMS page has a great viewer for sat, winds, shear:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=94L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=1111100000000000000000&loop=0



No west winds, wicked 40-50 k shear out ahead it looks like.

[Evil Jeremy]

Not even the Clipper actually recurves it actually, it just shows a NW/NNW movement at the end, not an actual recurve, and again, its not an actual computer model. It just represents climatology, which can often be found being thrown out the window.

[HouTXmetro]

CMC and Clipper? Even I had to laugh at that one.

[boca]

We can't discount the CMC model either since they upgraded just recently.