ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

First visible

[Nimbus]

Convection increased back on the west side where the LLC most likely is. The well defined UL is moving North and the trough over Hispaniola looks like it is filling and weakening a little. The shear seems a little lighter with the cirrus clouds spreading out nicely. If the circulation is still elongated with a pole off to the west that might explain the displaced center observations. The eastern side should become dominant with the persistent convection spinning it up, but it seems to be taking forever to focus there.

[wxman57]

Today we'll have Erika. Time to head to the office.

[cycloneye]

Today we'll have Erika. Time to head to the office.

At 11 or they will wait for plane?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
447 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009



SUN-TUE...DLM RIDGE INITIALLY IN PLACE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS FL
AND THE WRN ATLC AS MINOR SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES EWD AND OFFSHORE
THE ERN CONUS. AM HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE GFS SOLN BRINGING A WAVE
ALL THE WAY WWD INTO THE BAHAMAS. MUCH LIKE THE CASE WAS WITH BILL
...PREFER THE MORE LKLY ECM SOLN...AS THERE WILL LKLY BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH EROSION OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO ALLOW THE
CTRL ATLC SYSTEM TO TURN NWD WELL EAST OF FL. NET RESULT IS A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW/PRES PATTERN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR NEAR NORMAL
(CLIMO) POPS IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE.



SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI

[cycloneye]

Close-up image.

[hurricanetrack]

Another week, another named storm it appears. Very nice, taking long enough but good things come to those who wait. Now- where does it go in the long term? Looks like at least a week before we know for sure.

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion from San Juan PR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY AND MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW. BROAD AREA LOW PRES TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT COULD BECOME THE FIFTH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON AND MAY IMPACT THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. INTERESTS IN PR/USVI
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOR TODAY IS QUITE SIMPLE. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS. SHOWERS
IF ANY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PR DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.

FCST FOR THU-FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION
OF BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH AT THIS TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
CENTER FIXES DONE AT 06Z BY TAFB AND SAB AGENCIES WERE
AT 16.3N 55.6W AND 16.4N 55.9W RESPECTIVELY. COORDINATED WITH
BOTH ANALYSTS ON THE PHONE THIS MORNING AND BOTH INDICATED A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FIXES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE CENTERS. A 0406Z TMI MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BUT WITH NO
CLOSED CIRCULATION YET. 06Z EARLY CYCLE NHC MODELS SHOW TRACKS
RANGING FROM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PR TO AS FAR NORTH AS 20N
IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME OR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MODELS TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK FCST UNTIL
AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HRS. INTERESTS IN PR/USVI ARE REMINDED
THAT TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE IN THE ORDER OF 167 TO 230
NAUTICAL MILES IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME. THE FIRST HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INTERCEPT THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON AT 2PM AND WILL GIVE A BETTER PICTURE OF THE STRUCTURE
OF THE STORM...ITS EXACT LOCATION AND WIND FIELD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM HPC`S INTERNATIONAL
DESK YESTERDAY...THE FLOW DOMINATING THE ATLC TO THE NORTH OF 20N
AND TO THE EAST OF 70W IS CHARACTERIZED BY NUMEROUS TUTT LOWS WITH
CELLS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING MIGRATORY AND OF SHORT
DURATION RESULTING IN VERY ILL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. I WOULD
EXPECT THE TRACK FCST WITH THIS STORM TO BE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING
WITH LOTS OF ERRATIC MOVEMENTS AND WOBBLES WITH A MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY.

THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE STORM IS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TON OF RAINFALL ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM MOVING AT AVERAGE
OF SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH THE GFDL INDICATING SPEEDS AS SLOW AS 4 KT AT TIMES. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN THU
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS STILL BEYOND 48 HRS IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE FRESHEN LATER THIS MORNING TO UPDATE
STORM POSITION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

[Gustywind]

94L...Latest

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/0615 UTC 16.4N 55.9W T2.0/2.0 94L
31/2345 UTC 16.7N 54.5W T2.0/2.0 94L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Gustywind]

Today we'll have Erika. Time to head to the office.

At 11 or they will wait for plane?

Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 1, 2009 5:34 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
ATLANTIC

An area of low pressure about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has seen another flare up of shower and thunderstorm activity during the early morning hours this morning, and a tropical depression or tropical storm may form at any time. Upper level conditions remain favorable for development. The Hurricane Hunters are set to investigate this system later today.
The low is moving to the west-northwest near 15 miles per hour. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.
Elsewhere it is quiet across the Atlantic Basin.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[OURAGAN]

16,0N/55,9W, 1006 MB, 30kts

[HURAKAN]

16,0N/55,9W, 1006 MB, 30kts

That was at 06z. The next update comes in one hour.

[funster]

Today we'll have Erika. Time to head to the office.

Hope you have plenty of coffee waiting there.

[OURAGAN]

it,s updated at NRL, recently, 16,0N/55,9W, 30KTS, 1006 MB

[Gustywind]

16,0N/55,9W, 1006 MB, 30kts

Tkanks Ouragan can you provide us the link please ?

[OURAGAN]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[cycloneye]

The above new position is from Best Track that just updated and NRL picks up.

AL, 94, 2009090106, , BEST, 0, 160N, 559W, 30, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest