ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[KWT]

Yep and the models have been trending slightly towards a slower trough, plus the observations made by Derek and Deltadog about the weakness already filling in and the upper high strengthening out to the west is suggestive that at the very least this may get a little further west then the models expect..if the models have one flaw its under-estimating ridges a little.

[Derek Ortt]

chances still favor east of NC

however, chances of a fish are not that good right now

[CrazyC83]

Yep and the models have been trending slightly towards a slower trough, plus the observations made by Derek and Deltadog about the weakness already filling in and the upper high strengthening out to the west is suggestive that at the very least this may get a little further west then the models expect..if the models have one flaw its under-estimating ridges a little.

That could send it in the hole between Bermuda and the US East Coast, but that also surely will create a very close call for the areas that punch out (i.e. Cape Cod, Nantucket) and likely result in a Nova Scotia landfall.

[taurus10]

well i remember gloria in 85 that the storm was a little more south than bill right now she ended up north of bahamas and then tracked just over the outerbanks and there was a cold front aproaching from the west and she straggled that front through new england there maybe no comparison here but it does show that these storms make there own enviorment when the rech cat3 or higher

[KWT]

Yeah Crazy that would be quite possible IF it does go further west then expected. Still need to see what the motion is like in the next 24hrs or so. Models mainly have this north of 20N by 60W so thats the next benchmark.

[OURAGAN]

in the last frames,i see west jog occuring already (may be to 275 w)

[I-wall]

Does anyone know where we can find the latest microwave imagery? I'm really curious to get a good look at the inner structure.

[artist]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
anyone else having problems with the above link running animations/loops today?
Anyone have the backup site info? Lost the link. Thanks in advance

[storm4u]

what time do the 0z models come out?

[cycloneye]

I want to see an eye to track It has taken its time for an eye to open.

[storms NC]

I just looked and it is going west or like 270-275

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

I don't think your going to get a good eye with this cycloneye till this one is a major hurricane to be honest, these big hurricanes in the tropics tend to take thier time to show all so to speak!

[OURAGAN]

i agree

[OURAGAN]

West joq and moving fast

[deltadog03]

The faster this continues to move the more time it can be allowed** to move more westerly. (IF it does move/jog/temp move that way)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Why do we keep posting WV instead of IR or visible? WV is useless when showing direction

[I-wall]

I don't think your going to get a good eye with this cycloneye till this one is a major hurricane to be honest, these big hurricanes in the tropics tend to take thier time to show all so to speak!

I agree. When it does happen though...its going to be big. This hurricane is massive!!

[KWT]

Because WV shows us the uper features which are vital in the track of Bill...in many ways its far more useful then the IR for longer term stuff.

Still does seem to have jogged westwards over the last hour but I'm betting as per normal its stair stepping, 2 north 1 west sort of thing.

[cycloneye]

Starting tommorow morning at 4 AM EDT or 08:00z the first mission (P-3 plane) to Bill will take off from Barbados.

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FIX AT 19/1800Z
AND 20/0600Z ON HURRICANE BILL.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL BEGIN FLYING 5 RESEARCH MISSIONS
IN A ROW ON HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0800Z WITH THE P-3
AND G-IV. TAKEOFFS WILL BE EVERY 12 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[artist]

Does anyone know where we can find the latest microwave imagery? I'm really curious to get a good look at the inner structure.

don't know if this is what you are looking for or not -

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html