ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[tolakram]

Getting toward the last of the high speed visible.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=15

[jinftl]

Yep, Ida's more northerly track means she will be traversing over the highest tchp (tropical cyclone heat potential) in the entire Atlantic Basin tonight and tomorrow, until north of 23N and west of 86W. High octane fuel for tropical systems.

Yea, the eyewall being present on radar indicates its pretty well organized. The CDO is quite impressive. Its going over some prime fuel.

[Emmett_Brown]

Ida will be going over some very high TCHP during the night time hours. Night is typically when we see storms intensify, so wondering if RI is possible.

[tolakram]

[ozonepete]

RI a distinct possibility now. Symmetry is getting impressive with a very circular CDO and some really good outflow to the north and east. Looks like it will have a visible eye soon.

[Aric Dunn]

RI a distinct possibility now. Symmetry is getting impressive with a very circular CDO and some really good outflow to the north and east. Looks like it will have a visible eye soon.

well RI would be possible but not like we would see normally... as its forward motion increases it will help with the shear problem but then it has less time over the warm ssts..

[Stormcenter]

I was referring to the post below in reference to the model sbeing in lal la land. I didn't mention anything about a landfalling hurricane only that the waters could not support one because theyare just too cool. In addition shear will be a major factor too.

It's a really interesting how these models are still having monster systems even in the central-north GOM but I'd be shocked if we saw anything as strong as HWRF has up there.

The forecast tracks speak nothing of intensity.....several models have Ida losing its tropical characteristics in line with the timetable the current NHC forecast does (between Monday and Tuesday, while still south of the Gulf Coast).

In fact, I am not aware (I could be wrong) of any model showing Ida as a landfalling hurricane on the Gulf Coast.

The funny thing is the waters are just not warm enough anymore to support this type of storm.
The models are in la la land folks.

[ocala]

Buoy is roughly 80 miles NW of current position.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42056&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-6&time_label=CST

[jinftl]

gotcha....and agree with your points.

I was referring to the post below in reference to the model sbeing in lal la land. I didn't mention anything about a landfalling hurricane only that the waters could not support one because theyare just too cool. In addition shear will be a major factor too.

It's a really interesting how these models are still having monster systems even in the central-north GOM but I'd be shocked if we saw anything as strong as HWRF has up there.

The forecast tracks speak nothing of intensity.....several models have Ida losing its tropical characteristics in line with the timetable the current NHC forecast does (between Monday and Tuesday, while still south of the Gulf Coast).

In fact, I am not aware (I could be wrong) of any model showing Ida as a landfalling hurricane on the Gulf Coast.

The funny thing is the waters are just not warm enough anymore to support this type of storm.
The models are in la la land folks.

[tolakram]

Goes IR

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-84&info=ir&zoom=1&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10&palette=spect.pal

[ozonepete]

RI a distinct possibility now. Symmetry is getting impressive with a very circular CDO and some really good outflow to the north and east. Looks like it will have a visible eye soon.

well RI would be possible but not like we would see normally... as its forward motion increases it will help with the shear problem but then it has less time over the warm ssts..

Yes, I agree. It has limited time left, but other storms in this area have surprised us before. I think it has time to make cat 2.

[jinftl]

Ida has about 36 hours or so left over water over 27C (81F)...a more northerly (n or nnw) track would keep Ida over warmer water longer than a nw track would as the southeast GoM is much warmer than even the south-central GoM.

RI a distinct possibility now. Symmetry is getting impressive with a very circular CDO and some really good outflow to the north and east. Looks like it will have a visible eye soon.

well RI would be possible but not like we would see normally... as its forward motion increases it will help with the shear problem but then it has less time over the warm ssts..

[ozonepete]

The models are beginning to support a "hurricane" at the Gulf coast because they're expecting ET. If the eastern side of the bottom of that 500mb (area of maximum vorticity) gets within a few hundred miles of Ida, it will add a lot of baroclinic energy. Take another look at the 12Z GFS and the HWRF as they go out to Wednesday evening. They actually now take it up the east coast as a powerful ET! That's the first I've seen this in the runs...

[ocala]

Currently Ida is over 84 degree water. It can go as far north as 26.0/-85.6, buoy 42003, where the temp is still 81 degrees.
Bottom line is it still has a lot of warm water in front of it.

[wxman57]

Going to be interesting few days thats for sure..

i will say that would be one hellofa fast shift to extrop... something i have a hard time following right now... will be watching it closely tonight and tomorrow...

Hi, Jesse.

I think what we'll see is that as soon as Ida reaches north of about 25-26N it'll hit that jet core and the convection will be all stripped off to the NNE very quickly, leaving an exposed center. Strongest winds by that time may be 150 miles north of the center, maybe more. Nothing to make landfall. Once storms hit the jet stream (70-80 kt SSW-SW flow aloft in this case) they don't last long.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS, into the Panhandle!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/mode ... es/gfs_slp

[Aric Dunn]

its already coming up on the 6Z position.. lol thats a little ahead of schedule

[ozonepete]

Going to be interesting few days thats for sure..

i will say that would be one hellofa fast shift to extrop... something i have a hard time following right now... will be watching it closely tonight and tomorrow...

Hi, Jesse.

I think what we'll see is that as soon as Ida reaches north of about 25-26N it'll hit that jet core and the convection will be all stripped off to the NNE very quickly, leaving an exposed center. Strongest winds by that time may be 150 miles north of the center, maybe more. Nothing to make landfall. Once storms hit the jet stream (70-80 kt SSW-SW flow aloft in this case) they don't last long.

Unless it does an ET to a mostly baroclinic low...

[wxman57]

Unless it does an ET to a mostly baroclinic low...

I think the moisture from Ida will be absorbed into a baroclinic low forming on the front. And that low will be quite a nor'easter by late Wednesday/Thursday.

[Aric Dunn]

PRetty serious convective bands..