NE of Azores Islands : INVEST 92L

[DanieleItalyRm]

Fantastic loop Hurakan..
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 020615.GIF
the NHC ignored.. this is a Tropical Storm.

[Chacor]

This is not a tropical storm. It might've been, but it certainly isn't one now.

[HURAKAN]

827
ABNT20 KNHC 021152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY
AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Fantastic loop Hurakan..
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 020615.GIF
the NHC ignored.. this is a Tropical Storm.

Another good loop: http://wind.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/me ... ode=Endlos

[DanieleItalyRm]

NHC-Subtropical Storm:
The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

NHC-Tropical Cyclones:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center

The Azores storm have warm core,in subtropical waters,organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation! have 50 knots wind.. for me it's a Tropical Storm.

[Chacor]

The 50 kt wind reading from Quikscat was heavily marred by rain, and likely was unreliable. NCEP/ATCF says 35 kt and Meteo France says no gale. It also doesn't currently have well-organised deep convection. Only a small band of -50C cloud tops in the NE quadrant. Look at the IR, not the visible.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak says its a Subtropical Storm.


02/1200 UTC 42.7N 23.8W ST3.0 92L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Chacor]

Luis, subtropical classifications are not made using the Dvorak method. It's the Hebert-Poteat method.

[hurricanefloyd5]

SSD Dvorak says its a Subtropical Storm.


02/1200 UTC 42.7N 23.8W ST3.0 92L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

are you saying ana now?

[DanieleItalyRm]

The 50 kt wind reading from Quikscat was heavily marred by rain, and likely was unreliable. NCEP/ATCF says 35 kt and Meteo France says no gale. It also doesn't currently have well-organised deep convection. Only a small band of -50C cloud tops in the NE quadrant. Look at the IR, not the visible.

what's the problem? I have looked many tropical depression only -50-60°c, WHIT high convection only nort est of the center..
and enlarge the last quickscat image..this is 40-50 knots winds..

[cycloneye]

Luis, subtropical classifications are not made using the Dvorak method. It's the Hebert-Poteat method.

I was only looking at the increase of the number to 3.0,nothing else.

[Chacor]

I know. My point was that the SSD didn't use the Dvorak technique, because for subtropical systems they use a different method.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

we coucld have ana

[Chacor]

No we don't. The NHC is clearly not interested in this system or they would not have graded it yellow at the 8 am TWO.

[brunota2003]

Actually, that is a wind of greater than 50 knots. Just the triangle is 50 knots...with the dash below it too, it is closer to 55 or so.

On the other hand, is that a front extending down from the SE side of the system? The low that this thing is embedded within is huge!

[Chacor]

It's in an area of the pass that is marred by rain (the black barbs), hence why I said it's unreliable.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best track

45 kts,995 mbs

AL, 92, 2009060212, , BEST, 0, 428N, 237W, 45, 995, LO, 34

[brunota2003]

It's in an area of the pass that is marred by rain (the black barbs), hence why I said it's unreliable.

Yes, I am aware of that. If there was a couple more of those that were not black (rain contaminated) with the one, I would believe it more. I was just pointing out that a triangle represents 50 knots.

[hurricanefloyd5]

12 UTC Best track

45 kts,995 mbs

AL, 92, 2009060212, , BEST, 0, 428N, 237W, 45, 995, LO, 34

this is ana I just know it nd the nhc isn't upgrading this gggggggggggggggrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html