ATL: INVEST (97L)

[gatorcane]

I believe the CMC is developing the wave approaching the leewards (wave #1) down the road.

One thing we will need to watch is what happens to these waves once past the TUTT? That is, will they be able to hang on enough to develop once in th WCAR?

It's looking like the upper-level conditions are going to be favorable for development for waves that get into the WCAR, GOM, or Bahamas next week. That is because a large ridge over the Western Atlantic, Florida and part of the GOM is going to set in next week, which will lessen the shear. In fact we haven't seen this type of deep-layer ridge setup this entire hurricane season so far, so it is a sign we are getting closer to prime-time in the tropics and conditions for development are gradually starting to improve each day as we move into August.

[floridasun78]

why did navy and nhc make it invest if doom by tonight or saturday you think their weast their time for system that will gone by tonight or saturday do their know something we donot???

[cycloneye]

SSTs are marginal in the area that 97L is,but they start to warm after 50W and that is where we have to watch for any development.But the main factor for the system to have a chance to develop is the upper enviroment and that is not looking too promising at this time.

[Gustywind]

Seems that all the islands north of Martinica could be on the path of 97L and especially my island (Guadeloupe given the BAMM and LGM)...but we're far away from a official threat let's see the others runs...

[Aric Dunn]

why did navy and nhc make it invest if doom by tonight or saturday you think their weast their time for system that will gone by tonight or saturday do their know something we donot???

actually i think its the opposite.. they dont know what it will do, cause sometimes when something looks crappy it still forms and other times it does not. so they put the invest because it followed their criteria for an invest and not because they think its going to form or not.

it remains to be seen it is sitting over 81 degree water right now upper winds are fine .. there is some mid level dry air that it has been fighting but as it heads farther west that will subside but at that same time the shear will be on the increase. unless the weather pattern changes in 2 to 3 days.

[Gustywind]

SSTs are marginal in the area that 97L is,but they start to warm after 50W and that is where we have to watch for any development.But the main factor for the system to have a chance to develop is the upper enviroment and that is not looking too promising at this time.

Yeah that's it, "i bet "maybe for a strong open wave crossing near the Leewards islands, but let's see if this feature could maintain decent convection in an nonpromising environnement Cycloneye...

[senorpepr]

18Z update: AL, 97, 2009071718, , BEST, 0, 120N, 360W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[wxman57]

Definite rotation aloft, but that's been there since Africa. Nothing much at surface. Convection tops warming and stretching WNW-ESE now. Shear will only increase. Marginal SSTs. Not much really in its favor for development. NHC must be bored. However, it could bring the NE Caribbean some thunderstorms in about 4 days. And, eventually, maybe in 6-7 days, it may encounter a little more favorable environment.

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Model Plots

WHXX01 KWBC 171829
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC FRI JUL 17 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20090717 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090717 1800 090718 0600 090718 1800 090719 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 36.0W 12.7N 39.7W 13.3N 43.4W 13.5N 46.9W
BAMD 12.0N 36.0W 12.1N 39.1W 12.0N 42.0W 11.8N 44.7W
BAMM 12.0N 36.0W 12.3N 39.6W 12.6N 42.9W 12.7N 46.0W
LBAR 12.0N 36.0W 11.8N 39.3W 12.1N 42.8W 12.2N 46.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090719 1800 090720 1800 090721 1800 090722 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 50.7W 15.6N 58.6W 18.8N 66.5W 22.3N 73.4W
BAMD 11.5N 47.2W 11.9N 52.3W 13.9N 58.4W 16.4N 65.8W
BAMM 12.8N 48.9W 14.2N 54.8W 17.4N 61.1W 21.0N 67.1W
LBAR 12.2N 49.8W 12.7N 55.8W 15.7N 61.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 39KTS 49KTS 56KTS 63KTS
DSHP 39KTS 49KTS 56KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 33.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 29.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[StormTracker]

Just to clarify for myself and those that might not have caught the end of the closed thread prior to this being made an invest, we are talkin' about wave #1(the wave furthest west of the coast of Africa)RIGHT???

[Pedro Fernández]

Did I sleep through 96L?

95L and 96L were skipped...

Anybody know why?

Good question

[dixiebreeze]

It's on the board;

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
17/1745 UTC 12.4N 36.0W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Convection-wise looks really bad.

[JonathanBelles]

Just to clarify for myself and those that might not have caught the end of the closed thread prior to this being made an invest, we are talkin' about wave #1(the wave furthest west of the coast of Africa)RIGHT???

Wave #1 on the NHC GTWO, yes. From past threads...S2K wave #2.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 34W-37W AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 33W-38W.

[floridasun78]

Definite rotation aloft, but that's been there since Africa. Nothing much at surface. Convection tops warming and stretching WNW-ESE now. Shear will only increase. Marginal SSTs. Not much really in its favor for development. NHC must be bored. However, it could bring the NE Caribbean some thunderstorms in about 4 days. And, eventually, maybe in 6-7 days, it may encounter a little more favorable environment.

but if make it that many days 6-7 is lonng way

[wxman57]

Here's a combo satellite/surface plot. Only a couple of obs nearby. No indication of any low-level circulation, just straight E-ESE flow. Convection is elongating east-west and tops warming now.

[wxman57]

Definite rotation aloft, but that's been there since Africa. Nothing much at surface. Convection tops warming and stretching WNW-ESE now. Shear will only increase. Marginal SSTs. Not much really in its favor for development. NHC must be bored. However, it could bring the NE Caribbean some thunderstorms in about 4 days. And, eventually, maybe in 6-7 days, it may encounter a little more favorable environment.

but if make it that many days 6-7 is lonng way

The wave will still be there in 6-7 days. It won't go away/dissipate.

[Aric Dunn]

So just to let everyone in on the timing of this thing. If everything were stay in place i.e the shear axis right now at about 56 west is the start. Our system has nearly 1200 miles till that longitude and its moving about 15mph, so thats about 3.25 to 3.5 days from now. so its has some time to do its thing. lol

and again the mid levels moisten up a little farther to west at about 45 to 50 west. at this time that present location is under about 5kts of shear ssts are 81 to 82 in that area. so if its going to do anything it will at that time which then leaves it about 36 hours before it hits the shear and quickly gets ripped apart. Then assuming we do get something to form and it does make it too the shear it has about 2 days of travel trough the shear until there is any potential improvement in the shear. With that said, chances are about exactly what the nhc has it at. presently <30% of development, I would say if it develops than it has about <30% chance of surviving the shear as well.

[Aric Dunn]

Here's a combo satellite/surface plot. Only a couple of obs nearby. No indication of any low-level circulation, just straight E-ESE flow. Convection is elongating east-west and tops warming now.

I like that image because just south of that farthest south wind barb is the area of highest vorticity which if there were anything to take shape at the surface it would be near that farthest south barb and the wind at that barb would be out of the east so it fits very well