CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAKA (01C)

[RL3AO]

It looks like it will turn back to the states... Why is this?

I think its a software bug. It doesn't realize the date line is there and plots 179E as 179W so it makes it look like its going to turn around.

[clfenwi]

I was about to say what RL3AO just said... the software drawing those maps got confused by the International Date Line, which the storm is forecast to cross over, (vice making a u-turn).

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI

0119 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (CP012009) 20090811 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090811 0000 090811 1200 090812 0000 090812 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 170.0W 13.9N 171.8W 14.4N 173.7W 14.7N 175.6W

BAMD 13.5N 170.0W 14.1N 171.5W 14.6N 172.8W 15.0N 174.2W

BAMM 13.5N 170.0W 14.1N 171.5W 14.5N 172.9W 14.8N 174.3W



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090813 0000 090814 0000 090815 0000 090816 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.2N 177.5W 16.0N 179.4E 17.0N 177.1E 18.5N 175.5E

BAMD 15.4N 175.6W 16.6N 178.2W 18.9N 179.6E 21.7N 177.5E

BAMM 15.2N 175.9W 16.2N 178.8W 17.8N 178.8E 20.1N 177.0E



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 170.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 167.6W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 165.0W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Derek Ortt]

CPHC very slow getting these on their website... but are available via text weather utilities

WTPA23 PHFO 110254
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
0300 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 170.6W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 289 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 170.6W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 170.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.1N 172.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.7N 174.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.3N 176.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.9N 178.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.5N 179.5E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 19.5N 177.5E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 21.5N 176.5E
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 170.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/KNABB

WTPA33 PHFO 110255
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HAWAII...

AT 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 170.6 WEST
OR ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 985
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE-C COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.7N 170.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 289 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/KNABB

WTPA43 PHFO 110256
TCDCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES THAT THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND HAS AQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DVORAK FINAL T NUMBERS
FROM PHFO...JTWC...AND SAB WERE A CONSENSUS 2.0 AT 0000 UTC. IN
ADDITION...MANUAL ANALYSIS OF THE DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1730 UTC PROVIDES EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE
CIRCULATION THAT IS COLOCATED WITH THE CLOUD-TOP ROTATION SEEN IN
GOES IMAGERY. BASED ON BOTH THE DVORAK CLASSIFCATIONS AND THE 25
TO 30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN THE QUIKSCAT DATA...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
IS SET TO 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12. ONE-C IS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO KEEP IT
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND
GFS SOLUTIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS WELL-SEPARATED FROM OTHER ITCZ CONVECTION AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 CELSIUS
OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION
TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES
A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND DAY 3...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THUS A WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 13.7N 170.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 14.1N 172.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 14.7N 174.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 15.3N 176.4W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 15.9N 178.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 179.5E 70 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 177.5E 65 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 21.5N 176.5E 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD/KNABB

[RL3AO]

Typhoon Maka in a few days if the track is right.

[HURAKAN]

Next name: Maka

[hawaiigirl]

so this won't be doing a U turn back to the islands?....?

[RL3AO]

so this won't be doing a U turn back to the islands?....?

No. Just a computer bug.

[Kingarabian]

Well it will make some turn.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12. ONE-C IS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO KEEP IT
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND
GFS SOLUTIONS.

Im off to sleep.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 35 knots

Say hello to Tropical Storm Maka

[HURAKAN]

000
WTPA33 PHFO 111445
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MAKA...

AT 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 172.2 WEST OR ABOUT
250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1060 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

MAKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAKA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...
THEN CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.2N 172.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON


000
WTPA43 PHFO 111455
TCDCP3

TROPICAL STORM MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

I HAVE UPGRADED DEPRESSION ONE-C TO TROPICAL STORM MAKA. CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED AND INCREASED IN AREA AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER
ORGANIZED. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES HAD CI NUMBERS OF 2.0 TO 2.5.
CIMSS ADT AT 0430 UTC GAVE A CI OF 2.2...AND CIMSS AND CIRA AMSU MSW
VALUES RANGED FROM 40 TO 46 KT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE POSITION AND INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.

A 1027 MB HIGH LIES ABOUT 1700 MILES NORTH OF MAKA...WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO A COL AROUND 26N 160E.
MAKA SHOULD MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE
FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE MODELS SHOW A MUCH GREATER
SPREAD. I EXPECT MAKA TO CURVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
TRACK EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT AT 120 HOURS...CLOSER TO
THE HWRF.

ANY GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST TRACK WILL KEEP ONE-C OVER 28 DEGREE
CELSIUS SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN IT
WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATER. THE SHEAR FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC.
SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK...BUT THERE IS MUCH STRONGER SHEAR FURTHER
NORTH. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WITH MAKA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT 120 HOURS. AS USUAL...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 14.2N 172.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.6N 173.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 175.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.8N 177.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 178.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.1N 178.6E 60 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 20.1N 176.7E 60 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 22.4N 174.5E 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[HURAKAN]

OMG! Maka will cross the entire world! WU can't handle a storm crossing from the WH to the EH.

[masaji79]

Wow, two named storms Lana and Maka in the CPAC before one storm is even named in the ATL. The last time I can remember that happening was 1992, when Ekeka and Hali were both named off season. Have there been other times?

[CrazyC83]

Note an error in the discussion:

THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WITH MAKA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 120 HOURS. AS USUAL...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

By then it would be past 180, so it would be typhoon - not hurricane - strength.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[hawaiigirl]

[clfenwi]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MAKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

...MAKA MOVING WESTWARD...SLOW INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 174.0 WEST OR ABOUT
335 MILES...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1155
MILES...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

MAKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MAKA
SHOULD SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.5N 174.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA


TROPICAL STORM MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

OVERNIGHT POSITION FIXES WERE DIFFICULT IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
DATA AND WERE NOT CONCLUSIVE ON THE LOCATION OF MAKA. HOWEVER...THE
INITIAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TO
BE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS RESULTED IN AN ADJUSTMENT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK POSITIONS AND MEANS MAKA HAS MOVED MORE
WESTWARD RATHER THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
RESTRICTED IN THE WEST AND BEST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHICH
INDICATES THAT SOME VERTICAL SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. THE
SHEAR HAS BEEN HINDERING MAKA/S ABILITY TO ORGANIZE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KT IN LINE WITH
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK VALUES FROM PHFO AND PGTW...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN SAB.

MAKA IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH A LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL AIDS
ALL INDICATE THE SAME GENERAL PATH BUT VARY ON THE DEGREE OF TURN.
THE GFS AND GFDL ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
UKMET AND ECMWF IS ON THE LEFT...AND HWRF...NOGAPS AND TVCN ARE IN
THE MIDDLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN LINE WITH THE TVCN CONSENSUS
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

SST/S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 28C THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND MAKA SHOULD MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN
THE SAME TIME FRAME. THIS SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.
BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE
WIDE SPREAD IN THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE GFS MODEL GREATLY
INCREASES THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER MAKA AND DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH
INTENSIFICATION. HWRF IS SIMILAR...WHILE THE GFDL SHOWS
INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE WARM SST/S
AND INCREASING HEAT CONTENT...WITH MAKA BECOMING A
HURRICANE/TYPHOON BY 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 14.5N 174.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 175.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.4N 176.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 16.0N 178.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 16.8N 180.0E 55 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 18.6N 177.6E 65 KT
96HR VT 15/1800Z 20.9N 175.7E 70 KT
120HR VT 16/1800Z 23.4N 173.4E 75 KT

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[HURAKAN]

884
WHXX01 KMIA 120054
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0054 UTC WED AUG 12 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKA (CP012009) 20090812 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090812 0000 090812 1200 090813 0000 090813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 172.9W 14.2N 174.9W 14.7N 176.9W 15.2N 178.5W
BAMD 13.8N 172.9W 14.1N 174.5W 14.3N 176.2W 14.7N 177.8W
BAMM 13.8N 172.9W 14.2N 174.5W 14.5N 176.2W 14.9N 177.7W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090814 0000 090815 0000 090816 0000 090817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 179.9W 16.9N 178.5E 19.1N 177.5E 21.8N 176.6E
BAMD 15.2N 179.1W 17.4N 179.4E 21.6N 177.2E 25.4N 173.2E
BAMM 15.3N 179.0W 16.9N 179.1E 19.9N 177.2E 22.7N 175.0E
SHIP 56KTS 64KTS 69KTS 71KTS
DSHP 56KTS 64KTS 69KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 172.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 171.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 169.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[brunota2003]

30 knots? Sure it wasn't a typo and they meant 40 knots? I spy with my little eyes a few 40 knot wind barbs on QuikScat.

[HURAKAN]

30 knots? Sure it wasn't a typo and they meant 40 knots? I spy with my little eyes a few 40 knot wind barbs on QuikScat.

NRL also says 30 knots