WPAC : TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
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dowdavek
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 41
- Age: 31
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- Location: Dededo, Guam
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (15W)
Started getting rain on Guam this morning with a little thunder, that for some reason caused an island wide power outage.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139595
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (15W)
WTPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 152.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 152.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.9N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.2N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.4N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.5N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.7N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.4N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.3N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 152.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
AN ANTICYCLONE. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE
DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES ALONG A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND PUSH WESTWARD, ENABLING
THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN ITS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LEFT AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 152.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 152.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.9N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.2N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.4N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.5N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.7N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.4N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.3N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 152.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF
AN ANTICYCLONE. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE
DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 15W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES ALONG A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND PUSH WESTWARD, ENABLING
THE SYSTEM TO RETAIN ITS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LEFT AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO.//
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 120949
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
800 PM CHST SAT SEP 12 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
480 MILES EAST OF ROTA
520 MILES EAST OF GUAM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 152.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM
SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
BAQUI/STANKO
WTPQ31 PGUM 120949
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
800 PM CHST SAT SEP 12 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.4 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
480 MILES EAST OF ROTA
520 MILES EAST OF GUAM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 14.7 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 152.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 AM
SUNDAY MORNING.
$$
BAQUI/STANKO
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 121245
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
1100 PM CHST SAT SEP 12 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
465 MILES EAST OF ROTA
500 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SUNDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 152.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM.
$$
BAQUI/STANKO
WTPQ31 PGUM 121245
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
1100 PM CHST SAT SEP 12 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.1 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
465 MILES EAST OF ROTA
500 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SUNDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.0 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 152.1 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 AM.
$$
BAQUI/STANKO
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139595
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (15W)
This advisory has intensity a little down from the past two when it had the long range period at 95kts.
WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 152.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 152.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.3N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.3N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.3N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.4N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.7N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.9N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 151.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 9 FT.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 152.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 152.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.3N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.3N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.3N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 16.4N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.7N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.9N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 151.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 15W (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 9 FT.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (15W)
WTPQ31 PGUM 121529
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
200 AM CHST SUN SEP 13 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN AS OF 2 AM CHST.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
400 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
440 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
480 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.1 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 151.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM.
$$
BAQUI/STANKO
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
200 AM CHST SUN SEP 13 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN AS OF 2 AM CHST.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 151.7 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
400 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
440 MILES EAST OF ROTA AND
480 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.1 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 151.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM.
$$
BAQUI/STANKO
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (15W)
Continues to organize and it looks like a Tropical Storm now.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (15W)
WTPQ20 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 15.4N 150.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 15.9N 148.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141800UTC 17.1N 145.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 151800UTC 18.7N 142.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0914 CHOI-WAN (0914) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 15.4N 150.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 250NM
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 15.9N 148.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141800UTC 17.1N 145.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 151800UTC 18.7N 142.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (0914)
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:11:44 N Lon : 151:13:59 E
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:11:44 N Lon : 151:13:59 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.1 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -74.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:11:44 N Lon : 151:13:59 E
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2009 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:11:44 N Lon : 151:13:59 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.1 3.7
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -74.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (0914)
from the pacific daily news on Guam: (Choi-wan means colorful clouds in Cantonese)
http://www.guampdn.com/article/20090913 ... GECAROUSEL
http://www.guampdn.com/article/20090913 ... GECAROUSEL
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (0914)
PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 150.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 150.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.8N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.0N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.3N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.9N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.2N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.4N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 150.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL
BANDS WRAPPING INTO DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE IMAGERY AND UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICT GREAT RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A DEEPENING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE EAST IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING. THE MODEL AIDS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS THEY HAVE ALL STARTED TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN. HOWEVER, THE 12Z UPPER-LEVEL
SOUNDING AT MINAMITORISHIMA (RJAM, 24.5N 154.0E) REPORTS EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, INDICATING THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST TAKES THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER JAPAN SLIGHTLY WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. THE UPGRADE IN INTENSITY
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS WELL AS THE CURRENT POSITION ARE BASED
ON THE 121730Z PGTW FIX AND ARE SUPPORTED BY A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE DEPICTED IN THE 121531Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 150.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 150.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.8N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.0N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.3N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.9N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.2N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.4N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 150.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL
BANDS WRAPPING INTO DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE IMAGERY AND UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICT GREAT RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A DEEPENING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE EAST IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING. THE MODEL AIDS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST AS THEY HAVE ALL STARTED TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF SAIPAN. HOWEVER, THE 12Z UPPER-LEVEL
SOUNDING AT MINAMITORISHIMA (RJAM, 24.5N 154.0E) REPORTS EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, INDICATING THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS STILL FIRMLY IN PLACE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST TAKES THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER JAPAN SLIGHTLY WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. THE UPGRADE IN INTENSITY
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS WELL AS THE CURRENT POSITION ARE BASED
ON THE 121730Z PGTW FIX AND ARE SUPPORTED BY A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW
LEVEL SIGNATURE DEPICTED IN THE 121531Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. MAX-
IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
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- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
WTPQ31 PGUM 122121
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
800 AM CHST SUN SEP 13 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.2 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
305 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
395 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. GENERAL
MOTION IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 150.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 PM.
$$
LEE/CHAN/MCELROY
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
800 AM CHST SUN SEP 13 2009
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.2 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
305 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
395 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. GENERAL
MOTION IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 150.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 2 PM.
$$
LEE/CHAN/MCELROY
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139595
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
00
WTPQ81 PGUM 122345
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHOI LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
945 AM CHST SUN SEP 13 2009
...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND
AGRIHAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
A WATCH MEANS THAT THE STATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS FOR THE SPECIFIED AREAS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS
IS ABOUT 305 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN...350 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND 395 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS. THE EXTENT AND LOCATION OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW MUCH IT INTENSIFIES. KEEP INFORMED BY
LISTENING TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING ACCORDING TO YOUR TYPHOON
DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. HEED THE ADVICE OF
LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION...INCLUDING POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO
YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php
WTPQ81 PGUM 122345
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHOI LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
945 AM CHST SUN SEP 13 2009
...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND
AGRIHAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.
A WATCH MEANS THAT THE STATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS FOR THE SPECIFIED AREAS.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS
IS ABOUT 305 MILES EAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN...350 MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND 395 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS. THE EXTENT AND LOCATION OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEPEND
ON THE EXACT TRACK AND HOW MUCH IT INTENSIFIES. KEEP INFORMED BY
LISTENING TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING ACCORDING TO YOUR TYPHOON
DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. HEED THE ADVICE OF
LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.
CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION...INCLUDING POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO
YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139595
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W)
WTPQ31 PGUM 130055
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
1100 AM CHST SUN SEP 13 2009
...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN MOVING TOWARD THE CNMI...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
295 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
345 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. GENERAL
MOTION IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 PM.
$$
CHAN/MUNDELL
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN (15W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
1100 AM CHST SUN SEP 13 2009
...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN MOVING TOWARD THE CNMI...
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA AND AGRIHAN.
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
295 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
345 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND
390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. GENERAL
MOTION IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 16.0 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 150.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 5 PM.
$$
CHAN/MUNDELL
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