ATL: Invest 98L

[caribsue]

Just another struggling disturbance

Yeehaw! This has been a pleasant, albeit boring year.

Maybe...that's seems to be the "rule" this year for the moment? no??? But that's depens where you live otowtiger.
Remember... it's not so boring for the EC for sure, Guadeloupe has already experienced 2 direct impacts from Ana and Erika...hopefully pretty "weak" systems but as landfalls, something to meditate my friend .

Well said as usual Gusty... we gotta take care and be vigilant

[Gustywind]

Absolutely, tkanks Caribsue you're right...we should begin to keep an eye on 98L. Conditions are expected to be marginal, but who knows...
Curiously, speaking about that: seems that right now the system is moving west south west and has lost 1mb, down to 1008 hpa
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atla ... est98.html


Invest #98 Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
1200 FRI SEP 18 12.6N 39.2W WSW 8 (7) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
0600 FRI SEP 18 12.9N 38.6W WSW 9 (8) 29.8 (1009) 29 (25)
0000 FRI SEP 18 13.2N 37.9W WSW 9 (8) 29.83 (1010) 29 (25)
1800 THU SEP 17 13.5N 37.2W W 8 (7) 29.83 (1010) 29 (25)
1200 THU SEP 17 13.6N 36.5W W 9 (8) 29.83 (1010) 29 (25)
0600 THU SEP 17 13.6N 35.7W - - 29.83 (1010) 29 (25)

[otowntiger]

Just another struggling disturbance

Yeehaw! This has been a pleasant, albeit boring year.

Maybe...that's seems to be the "rule" this year for the moment? no??? But that's depens where you live otowtiger.
Remember... it's not so boring for the EC for sure, Guadeloupe has already experienced 2 direct impacts from Ana and Erika...hopefully pretty "weak" systems but as landfalls, something to meditate my friend .

Sorry. Didn't mean to dis anyone. What were there impacts to your area from those sytems? Not much reported here in the US if there was much damage. Overall you've still gotta admit that this season has been much quieter than the last several and prospects for storms here at the peak are unusually slim. Which is for all involved certainly a good thing. Just less exciting for all of us weather enthusiasts.

[HURAKAN]

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation, and has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity overnight. This morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) shows a complete, circular wind pattern around the low pressure center of 98L, but top winds were only 25 mph. Wind shear is moderate, about 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

The global computer models predict differing amounts of wind shear in the path of 98L as it moves west-northwest at 10 mph over the next three days. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models do not develop 98L, while the NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF do. The models that do develop 98L predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. Given the moderate or higher wind shear in 98L's path, and dry air to the northwest, the system should develop only slowly. NHC is giving 98L a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Jeff Masters - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1323

[Derek Ortt]

another decoupled system

[HURAKAN]

Shear and dry air kicking 98L's rear

[Evil Jeremy]

I am not sure this really warrants a code Orange. Yellow, yes, but I don't see this being named any time soon. Then again, Danny and Erika...

[wxman57]

Definitely becoming less organized each hour as the LLC weakens and convection drops off and shifts farther east of the center.

[deltadog03]

too much dry air ahead of this little booger.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting.

[Gustywind]

No problem my friend you're apologized ! Whereas if you want or have time for that (we will be very glad in the tropics) i advice you to go more frequently to our TENT :), we will provide you news from the Lesser Antilles :
viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&st=0&sk=t&sd=a If you want to have details concerning Ana, Erika's effects in Guadeloupe and the others islands go on the appropriates pages...
Just a remark, don't forget that the season could be quiet in an area of the Atlantic and not on the other part . For example: 2005 was an rather active year especially for the US (landfall with Dennis, Rita, Wilma...), but nothing in Guadeloupe and most of the Lesser Antilles...Another example 1992 was pretty inactive but Andrew slamed remarquably Florida
That's why i want to emphasize on the fact that this year, anothers systems while they're weak...they could affect us and pose a problem (flooding, muslides, etc. deaths have been reported in PR history, and others islands too, with " only" with this event!) in spite of the weak status (TWave, TD, weak TS). Us in the islands given our roots, history, our philosophy is: we never let or we should not let your guard down in the peak of the season Otowntiger!
Friendly, Regards Gustywind

[Sanibel]

Another 2009 sheared surface spiral that convects and draws attention for potential.

[HURAKAN]

Poofing at the moment.

[otowntiger]

No problem my friend you're apologized ! Whereas if you want or have time for that (we will be very glad in the tropics) i advice you to go more frequently to our TENT :), we will provide you news from the Lesser Antilles :
viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&st=0&sk=t&sd=a If you want to have details concerning Ana, Erika's effects in Guadeloupe and the others islands go on the appropriates pages...
Just a remark, don't forget that the season could be quiet in an area of the Atlantic and not on the other part . For example: 2005 was an rather active year especially for the US (landfall with Dennis, Rita, Wilma...), but nothing in Guadeloupe and most of the Lesser Antilles...Another example 1992 was pretty inactive but Andrew slamed remarquably Florida
That's why i want to emphasize on the fact that this year, anothers systems while they're weak...they could affect us and pose a problem (flooding, muslides, etc. deaths have been reported in PR history, and others islands too, with " only" with this event!) in spite of the weak status (TWave, TD, weak TS). Us in the islands given our roots, history, our philosophy is: we never let or we should not let your guard down in the peak of the season Otowntiger!
Friendly, Regards Gustywind

Thanks for the info Gustywind. Yes we can never take anything for granted in the tropics, but thankfully it is still pretty quiet everywhere for now. The pro mets here seem to beleive that the overall synoptic pattern favors a quieter than normal rest of the season. Here's hoping that you and yours in your part of the world and mine will have a peaceful second half of the season.

[Gustywind]

No problem my friend you're apologized ! Whereas if you want or have time for that (we will be very glad in the tropics) i advice you to go more frequently to our TENT :), we will provide you news from the Lesser Antilles :
viewtopic.php?f=20&t=85676&st=0&sk=t&sd=a If you want to have details concerning Ana, Erika's effects in Guadeloupe and the others islands go on the appropriates pages...
Just a remark, don't forget that the season could be quiet in an area of the Atlantic and not on the other part . For example: 2005 was an rather active year especially for the US (landfall with Dennis, Rita, Wilma...), but nothing in Guadeloupe and most of the Lesser Antilles...Another example 1992 was pretty inactive but Andrew slamed remarquably Florida
That's why i want to emphasize on the fact that this year, anothers systems while they're weak...they could affect us and pose a problem (flooding, muslides, etc. deaths have been reported in PR history, and others islands too, with " only" with this event!) in spite of the weak status (TWave, TD, weak TS). Us in the islands given our roots, history, our philosophy is: we never let or we should not let your guard down in the peak of the season Otowntiger!

Friendly, Regards Gustywind

Thanks for the info Gustywind. Yes we can never take anything for granted in the tropics, but thankfully it is still pretty quiet everywhere for now. The pro mets here seem to beleive that the overall synoptic pattern favors a quieter than normal rest of the season. Here's hoping that you and yours in your part of the world and mine will have a peaceful second half of the season.

Excellent as the reasoning otowtiger i sincerely appreciate! Let's keep our fingers crossed while 98L seems on a weakning trend during the last 2 hours...given my untrained eyes

[HURAKAN]

697
ABNT20 KNHC 181730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD STILL SUPPORT
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 13N39W CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY TO THE E OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 35W-38W. UPPER LEVEL WIND
CONDITIONS REMAIN ONLY MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

Are they seeing the same system we're seeing?

[lester]

wow...just another struggling invest

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW
NEAR 13N39W CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY TO THE E OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 35W-38W. UPPER LEVEL WIND
CONDITIONS REMAIN ONLY MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.

Are they seeing the same system we're seeing?

Hurakan, that's the 100000$ question? Humm always code orange...

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1745 UTC 13.5N 40.2W T1.0/1.5 98L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html