SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK (04P)

[CrazyC83]

13/0230 UTC 14.5S 175.8E T3.5/3.5 MICK -- Southwest Pacific

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 13/0247 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK [995HPA] CAT 1 CENTRE NEAR 13.9S 175.4E AT
130000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

ORAGNISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 12 HRS WITH MORE
CURVATURE IN BANDING. SYSTEM LIES UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PERSISTING FROM
NORTH. WARMING OF CENTRAL REGION EVIDENT. PRIMARY BAND TO EAST
CONTINUALLY PEELING OFF. CYCLONE MOVING INTO AREA OF DECREASING
SHEAR. SYSTEM STEERED BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. DVORAK
BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT3.0. PT=3, MET=2.5. FT
BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM AND A FORECAST SOUTHEAST TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 15.1S 176.4E MOV SE 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 16.1S 177.5E MOV SE
08KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 17.2S 178.9E MOV SE 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 18.2S 179.8E MOV SE 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC MIVK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 130830 UTC.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 13/0842 UTC 2009 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK [995HPA] CAT 1 CENTRE NEAR 14.8S 175.8E AT
130600 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE.EXPECT WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH
THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORAGNISATION REMAINS GOOD IN THE LAST 12 HRS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER UPPER
DILLUFNT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND EAST. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
PERSISTING FROM NORTH. WARMING OF CENTRAL REGION EVIDENT. PRIMARY
BAND TO EAST CONTINUALLY PEELING OFF. CYCLONE MOVING INTO AREA OF
DECREASING SHEAR. SYSTEM STEERED BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.
DVORAK BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT3.0. PT=3,
MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM AND A FORECAST SOUTHEAST
TRACK.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 16.1S 176.9E MOV SE 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 17.3S 178.0E MOV SE
08KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 18.8S 179.3E MOV SE 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 19.3S 179.2E MOV SE 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC MICK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 131430 UTC.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 176.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 176.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.9S 177.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.9S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.0S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.6S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.3S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 176.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (MICK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 04P HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. A 131129Z TRMM 37H GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM
ALL AGENCIES, AS WELL AS THE MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING ALONG A
SOUTHEAST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TC MICK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU
36 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. TC 04P SHOULD
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS AT TAU 24 AND
THEN SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOLER SST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN

[Ptarmigan]

Mick looks quite impressive for a tropical storm.

[caribepr]

I'm watching this as a sailor friend of mine is in Fiji...was just getting ready to push off for a return trip to the Marshall Islands when Mick showed up...watching to see what happens next. Luckily he is in a very secure marina...

[Crostorm]

Radar visible eye



http://www.met.gov.fj/sat-map.html

[Crostorm]

[caribepr]

Crostorm, what is the link for that please? And does it loop? That looks BAD...but I just read a lot of good things about this marina, it's totally set up for cyclones, very very protected from the photos...but that shot...the marina on that western coast...argh.

[islanda]

Hey guys,
first time poster. Posting from the capital Suva. Weather has been deteriorating all morning, gusty winds and rain. This looks like a pretty compact system, with it this close we should already be experiencing gale force winds here. probably winds picking up the north and west. Its expected to be 40km south west of where i live by 7am tomorrow. At the moment its a cat 1 (classified using the australian system).

[cycloneye]

Hey guys,
first time poster. Posting from the capital Suva. Weather has been deteriorating all morning, gusty winds and rain. This looks like a pretty compact system, with it this close we should already be experiencing gale force winds here. probably winds picking up the north and west. Its expected to be 40km south west of where i live by 7am tomorrow. At the moment its a cat 1 (classified using the australian system).

Welcome to storm2k and enjoy all of what we have.Stay safe over there.

[islanda]

Thanks.....Will do.....here's the latest bulletin....

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
MICK
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 10:20am on Monday the 14th of December 2009

TOPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND
MAMANUCA, VITI LEVU, BEQA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MICK [985HPA] CENTRE CAT 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 16
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 9 EAST OR ABOUT 110 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
NADI OR 210 KM NORTHWEST OF SUVA AT 11 AM TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
INTENSIFYING. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE
AVERAGE WINDS OF 90 TO 100 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO130 KM/HR AND
WINDS OF 65 KM/HR TO 80 KM/HR AND MONEMTARY GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR WITHIN
270 KM OF CENTRE. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AT 15 KM/HR.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 40
KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NADI OR ABOUT 70 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF
SUVA AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ABOUT 185 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
NADI OR ABOUT 75 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT MIDDAY TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CENTRE PASSES
OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA, VITI LEVU, BEQA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90 TO 100 KM/HR
WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 130 KM.HR.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI :
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 TO 80 KM/HR WITH
GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR.

FURTHER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR ROTUMA: FRESH AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. SOME RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERTORMS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. VERY HIGH SEAS.
WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY
HIGH SEAS.
WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE WITH HIGH SEAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.
VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2.30
PM TODAY.

[caribepr]

Well, he's in Nadi. Figures. But he just emailed me that inside the jetties of the marinas it's only gusting 30 now.

Welcome, Islanda! Good luck and thanks for posting. Let us know how you do.

[islanda]

Getting reports on the radio of some damage to homes in islands to the northwest as mick gets closer. Civil servants have been sent home except for essential services.

[Crostorm]

Crostorm, what is the link for that please? And does it loop? That looks BAD...but I just read a lot of good things about this marina, it's totally set up for cyclones, very very protected from the photos...but that shot...the marina on that western coast...argh.

WOW

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=SH042010

[caribepr]

Thanks. he just emailed me that he's making fish curry...I like his style!

[Crostorm]

Here is live web cam from Fijiwebcam - live streaming webcam Suva, Fiji, Coral Coast ...

wow what wind

http://www.fijiwebcam.com/