ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[I-wall]

Does anyone know where we can find the latest microwave imagery? I'm really curious to get a good look at the inner structure.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... hr_03.html

Not sure if this was what you are looking for, FWIW

That was it! Thanks!

[captmrwill]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html
anyone else having problems with the above link running animations/loops today?
Anyone have the backup site info? Lost the link. Thanks in advance

As a guy who was once a grad student in charge of the antennae that get GOES data at MSFC (technically off site), I'll just say that the machine can get overloaded this time of year. It's the best GOES interface out there (if you ask me), but it can't always handle the load. The site was practically unusable in 2005.

At least it used to be that way. I think they upgraded the server in the somewhat recent past.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak numbers continue to go up.

17/2345 UTC 14.7N 47.6W T5.0/5.0 BILL

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[KWT]

I'm looking forward to seeing what recon find in terms of pressure, could be quite impressive if it is indeed in the process of fairly rapid strengthening, as the convective bursts would suggest.

[cpdaman]

Bill reminds me to Ike, big hurricane, lower than normal pressure and dry air wrapping around the center. I've seen SAL and water vapor imagery and it seems that there is very dry air ahead for Bill, could it slow down intensification in a significant way? what do you think?

i personally believe it will. (slow intensification).....i don't see bill doing any RI but i'm just a joe shmoe and that IMO and i don't think it is "automatic" that he becomes a major either but who knows

he's got some dry air in the circulation so that usually puts a ceiling on RI for a while imo

[cheezyWXguy]

Bill reminds me to Ike, big hurricane, lower than normal pressure and dry air wrapping around the center. I've seen SAL and water vapor imagery and it seems that there is very dry air ahead for Bill, could it slow down intensification in a significant way? what do you think?

It now appears that the sal is working its way out of Bill's system quite nicely. It seemed this morning as if Bill had "concentric eyewalls" with a tiny core in the middle surrounded by a large donut eyewall several hundred miles wide, but that has since changed and Bill is developing a central core. An eye is starting to become visible now, and cloud tops are now reaching -80C.
Dry air shouldn't be much of a problem in the next few days because of Bill's size too. If bill were the size of Ana, conditions might not be so promising for intensification. However, Bill is about the size of Texas, and with the way it is developing, it would take quite a bit of shear and SAL to pierce through this storm to its core. Personally, I think Bill could exceed the intensification forecast over the next 24-48 hours, depending on how the inner core develops.

[lonelymike]

any chance bill enters the gom?

Slim and none and slim just is getting deported by ICE

[caneseddy]

any chance bill enters the gom?

Highly doubtful

[KWT]

The thing is the western convection is really exploding, got some very cold tops indeed given this isn't even in the Caribbean/Gulf where you usually get tops like that. That suggests to me that Bill probably is strengthing pretty rapidly, the eye that appeared also suggests that as well IMO.

[Stephanie]

There is an upper level circulation that looks like a low centered near Cuba rolling west. I would think a ridge would follow that and then Bill would be embedded in the ridge. If Bills westerly component slows a little it will give more time for a trough or weakness to dig.

Wouldn't that bring it closer to the US?

[David in FL]

If Bill continues west tonight and doesnt go any further north tonight, what are the odds of it hitting us in the north florida area up to the carolinas? If it does continue north tonight will it knock the chance of hitting us?

[CrazyC83]

With the eye coming out, I'd say 90 kt/958mb right now.

[deltadog03]

The last couple of sat pics looks funky...Like there is a glitch or something. Unless my eyes are decieving me.

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track=85kts

AL, 03, 2009081800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 476W, 85, 967, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Bam Models

WHXX01 KWBC 180043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090818 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090818 0000 090818 1200 090819 0000 090819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 47.6W 15.7N 50.3W 16.9N 52.6W 18.4N 54.8W
BAMD 14.8N 47.6W 15.6N 50.3W 16.5N 52.6W 17.5N 54.6W
BAMM 14.8N 47.6W 15.7N 50.4W 16.8N 52.5W 18.0N 54.6W
LBAR 14.8N 47.6W 15.7N 50.5W 16.6N 53.6W 17.5N 56.6W
SHIP 85KTS 91KTS 97KTS 101KTS
DSHP 85KTS 91KTS 97KTS 101KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090820 0000 090821 0000 090822 0000 090823 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.4N 57.0W 24.3N 62.4W 28.3N 65.8W 33.9N 64.1W
BAMD 18.9N 56.4W 23.2N 59.9W 29.6N 61.8W 36.5N 61.1W
BAMM 19.7N 56.5W 24.1N 61.0W 29.5N 63.9W 36.0N 63.2W
LBAR 18.6N 59.4W 21.3N 65.0W 25.2N 68.6W 37.5N 64.9W
SHIP 105KTS 106KTS 102KTS 99KTS
DSHP 105KTS 106KTS 102KTS 99KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 47.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 44.6W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 41.3W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 967MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 130NM

[KWT]

Yep now at 85kts, wouldn't surprise me if the pressure is a little lower then the 967mbs they are suggesting but we shall see.

[cpdaman]

The last couple of sat pics looks funky...Like there is a glitch or something. Unless my eyes are decieving me.

when i put on my tin foil hat it tells me that it is just part of
http://74.125.93.132/search?q=cache:Dzs ... clnk&gl=us

otherwise i noticed what you are talking about and thought that perhaps it was just kind of slowing down a bit

[KWT]

Looks like the eye is still forming at the moment with the clearence now rotating round with the convection with of course is rather unusual if it was a proper eye.

[CrazyC83]

Yep now at 85kts, wouldn't surprise me if the pressure is a little lower then the 967mbs they are suggesting but we shall see.

I agree, I think it is around or a bit under 960 right now.

[KWT]

By the way what time is recon heading into Bill?