ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[CronkPSU]

By the way what time is recon heading into Bill?

leaves at 4AM if memory serves me correct

[KWT]

Thats the research mission right, will we be getting any fixes from that or will it not be shown?

[cycloneye]

Lets see if someone makes a sacrifice and post data at the Bill recon thread from the P-3 that departs at 4 AM EDT from Barbados.

[CronkPSU]

Thats the research mission right, will we be getting any fixes from that or will it not be shown?

IDK...all I got is what cycloneye posted earlier


cycloneye
Post subject: ATL : BILL (03L) Recon Thread
PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2009 7:13 pm
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Starting tommorow morning at 4 AM EDT or 08:00z the first mission (P-3 plane) to Bill will take off.

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A FIX AT 19/1800Z
AND 20/0600Z ON HURRICANE BILL.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL BEGIN FLYING 5 RESEARCH MISSIONS
IN A ROW ON HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0800Z WITH THE P-3
AND G-IV. TAKEOFFS WILL BE EVERY 12 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, if you look at that cluster of models there, there's no doubt that this is going to be a close call, unless of course the models decide to shift east.

[Blown Away]

So are we all confident Bill will not directly impact the Carribean islands at this point?

[pojo]

Thats the research mission right, will we be getting any fixes from that or will it not be shown?

Think of the mission as a normal recon mission.

[wxman57]

I mentioned the changing flow pattern ahead of Bill. Here's the latest GFS forecast of mean steering level winds (700mb-400mb) for 7am CDT Thursday. Note the ridge currently off the east U.S. coast shrinks and dives southwest as the deep upper trof approaches from the west. That leaves a nice gap for Bill to turn NW-NNW.

[deltadog03]

Nice map there wxman.

[cpdaman]

so the ridge to N and NW is starting to slide a bit west

so i guess bill slowing would be a good thing for a recurve

accelerating may put him under the influence of the ridge longer

[Cainer]

I'm keeping a very close eye on Bill. While I know not to trust models so far out, odds are we will feel some effects from Bill, maybe just rain and a little wind, maybe a strong tropical system. I got hit by two storms the past two years; Noel and Kyle. Hopefully Bill won't make it three, but if it does, at least I'll be forewarned

[Derek Ortt]

patterns may be different, but I'd expect there will be a center fix or two

[Derek Ortt]

GFS is a little too far east it appears. May be breaking down the ridge too quickly

[cycloneye]

pojo,are you slated to one of the missions tommorow?

[shah8]

the 18z?

[Dean4Storms]

I would not ignore the possibility of a closer graze by the northern Islands of the Antilles either. With the weakness filling in and the strength of the ridge currently I would not be surprised to see a more westward motion before the curve begins.



Of course this is my amateur opinion and nothing official, you should get all your info. from official sources!

[gatorcane]

Interesting snippet from HPC discussion about ECMWF vs GFS handling of Bill the past few days.

I doubt the long-range GFS will get much credibility now the rest of this season after this, at least for long-term track of any system it is showing.

USED THE 00Z/17 ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH A PROGRESSIVE BLEND TOWARD THE
00Z/17 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER. THIS COMBINATION HAS PROVED
TO BE A SKILLFUL ONE THIS WARM SEASON FOR SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS
THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES...SOUTHERN CANADA...AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN HAVE NOT SCORED AS WELL...WITH POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS FURTHER DIMINISHING
ITS USEFULNESS. A RECENT EXAMPLE OF THE GFS INSTABILITY IS ITS
HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC.
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO...THE GFS WAS DIRECTING AT LEAST ONE OF THESE
SYSTEMS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN STATES...WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THE GUIDANCE
HAS FINALLY CONVERGED UPON CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[drezee]

wow as if JB wrote it..

[JTD]

The Gulfstream data is what I'm particularly interested in at this point. Will the GF data be ingested into the 12z models tommorow morning? And will the GF data ingested be enough to give us a pretty definitive track?

Also, all of the models seem to indicate at least some level of threat to Atlantic Canada and millions live there. So, even if CONUS is spared...

From Wiki:

The population of the Atlantic provinces was 2,332,535 in 2007.[1]

So Atlantic Canada is HEAVILY populated.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS is a little too far east it appears. May be breaking down the ridge too quickly

That is what I'm wondering as well Derek and wondering on the speed of the ridge dropping SW.