ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[bahamaswx]

Still very lopsided. I see no eye. Not yet.

[Sanibel]

No doubt Cuba was spared a strong cyclone by Ida's Nicaragua track. If this happened 150 miles east we would be looking at a different system approaching Cuba.

[jinftl]

NHC Graphic that is overlooked....shows that a forecast is not just for a cetain wind speed...rather it is a blend of the probabilities of various outcomes....from the storm dissipating to being a hurricane. Watching the trend of these probabilities between advisories can show if the trend is for a stronger or weaker system at various points in time.

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[Normandy]

Microwave image speaks for itself. Easily a hurricane now probably.

[jinftl]

Is the eye feature hugging 84W again?

Very impressive

[IvanSurvivor]

When is the data from todays earlier recon put into the models/forecast?

[Aric Dunn]

Something interesting to note.. the 18z gfs no longer turns it SE and it is pulled north with a landfall in the florida panhandle in 60 hours.. .. that seems more reasonable.. more so than a almost ridiculous fast transition

[Aric Dunn]

Is the eye feature hugging 84W again?

Very impressive

never left.. been around 84 all day.. that image was also 3 hours ago..

[ozonepete]

Aric, I think you're really right about the steering influence from the western low dominating over that from the "building" ridge to the east and northeast. It's the only realistic explanation of the lack of westward movement. As a matter offact, it now looks from the cloud motion on the satellites that the ridge has reached its western limits. If that's true, there may never be any much western component to the forward motion and it would definitely come much closer to western Cuba.

[AdamFirst]

This thing needs to starting jacking west-northwest if it's going to verify these model tracks. Most of them expect a very close approach to the Yucatan. Looks like this thing's heading for Cuba.

[ozonepete]

Microwave image speaks for itself. Easily a hurricane now probably.

Absolutely, Normandy. It's pretty clear.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I think you're really right about the steering influence from the western low dominating over that from the "building" ridge to the east and northeast. It's the only realistic explanation of the lack of westward movement. As a matter offact, it now looks from the cloud motion on the satellites that the ridge has reached its western limits. If that's true, there may never be any much western component to the forward motion and it would definitely come much closer to western Cuba.

18z gfs. . http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml that is inline with what i have been mentioning... it still has a slight NNW track initially but then gets caught up in the trough while it just starts to transition. there is no way in 60 hours it can transition..

[Sanibel]

We should see the NNW veer in the Cancun radar soon. (Keeps it over warm water in the Channel)

[KWT]

Looks to me like Cuba is going to need hurricane warning very soon indeed, esp given its still hugging 84W at the moment.

Also looks like its trying to ramp back up again, a strengthening phase occuring again.

when is recon back in again BTW?

[cycloneye]

when is recon back in again BTW?

Its in the recon thread but I can tell you plane departs at 9:45 PM EST.

[jinftl]

Has it clearly begun a nnw motion? That microwave image shows the center back at 84.0W

:uarrow: We should see the NNW veer in the Cancun radar soon. (Keeps it over warm water in the Channel)

[Aric Dunn]

18z gfdl has no transition .. and landfall in panhandle but with a turn ese again.. pressure at 964 as it enters the gulf.. and maintains that till landfall ..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HURAKAN]

The microwave is a lot more impressive than this one

[ozonepete]

18z gfdl has no transition .. and landfall in panhandle but with a turn ese again..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

But remember 18Z runs use extrapolations.