ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[KWT]

Will be interesting to see if instead of hitting the west coast of Florida it may curve up the east coast, wouldn't shock me that much given the NHC now have this lifting up.

[Sanibel]

Exactly KWT. The next tweak is rightward again.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Hurricane Christ part II. Suicide over the islands IMO

[jlauderdal]

The issue is Brent and others that a ship did report a west wind plus there is the new convection blowing up over the MLC present is whats making the NHC keep this as a system. Recon today is going to be the key factor as to whether they keep it or kill it...for the time being...

its alos for consistency, why kill it off until they know for sure, this way they dont have to go through the admin of killing it then restarting it, its got 50/50 shot depending on where it goes, if it wasnt declared they wouldnt have named it but since it was declared then they kept it. they can kill it later if need be but i am sure nhc will take all of our pntificating into consideration when the next decision has to be made.

[jlauderdal]

Will be interesting to see if instead of hitting the west coast of Florida it may curve up the east coast, wouldn't shock me that much given the NHC now have this lifting up.

yep and then getting caught up and intensifying all they way to the UK as a gale center cancelling next weeks football matches, now that would be a bloody mess

[Sanibel]

Local Puerto Rican radar is hard to determine because of the radar circle distorting cloud movements. Later today and evening we'll get a better idea from Puerto Rican long-range radar.

[KWT]

TS chris 1989 looks similar to what I'm thinking but I suspect IF Ana survives it'd be a little stronger.

This one certainly does need to be watched, as does Bill and maybe the Gulf convection...

[Bocadude85]

Looks like she may pass just north of DR.

[ronjon]

Exactly KWT. The next tweak is rightward again.

Actually, the BAM Deep and medium pushes ANA further west into the Gulf with the shallow furthest east. This suggests to me that at the mid and upper levels, high pressure would be stronger and perhaps send a stronger Ana further west. Something else to consider, the NHC in their discussion alluded to Ana slowing down and steering currents becoming weaker in 3-4 days.

[KWT]

Yeah interestingly the shallow storms in this set-up are driven further north then stronger ones. Still in this case I think a right tweak is right as this is going to gain more latitude as it stays weak probably for at least another 24hrs. After this I wouldn't like to say however, much depends on whether the trough that is also picking up Bill in the next few days imparts enough of a weakness to lift whatever is present of Ana out as well.

[eastcoastFL]

Ana seems to be popping a little on IR>

[Blown Away]

Seems most of the deep convection will be to the N of the DR as Ana moves WNW. The question is will the center reform a little N and avoid the DR? Ana is blowing up on the IR!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Stormcenter]

Have you looked at the NHCs latest track? It keeps on
moving Ana eastward with each in new advisory.

Exactly KWT. The next tweak is rightward again.

Actually, the BAM Deep and medium pushes ANA further west into the Gulf with the shallow furthest east. This suggests to me that at the mid and upper levels, high pressure would be stronger and perhaps send a stronger Ana further west. Something else to consider, the NHC in their discussion alluded to Ana slowing down and steering currents becoming weaker in 3-4 days.

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html can someone please look at this and identify the features? I see ana over puerto rico, then I see moisture blob just nw west of her pushing against the ull or is that blob the ull?

[ronjon]

Have you looked at the NHCs latest track? It keeps on
moving Ana eastward with each in new advisory.

Exactly KWT. The next tweak is rightward again.

Actually, the BAM Deep and medium pushes ANA further west into the Gulf with the shallow furthest east. This suggests to me that at the mid and upper levels, high pressure would be stronger and perhaps send a stronger Ana further west. Something else to consider, the NHC in their discussion alluded to Ana slowing down and steering currents becoming weaker in 3-4 days.

ah, stormcenter I think its because NHC keeps its a weak low. In addition, the ECM parks a mid-level high over the Bahamas in 72 hrs.

[Bocadude85]

I dont see a coc at all anymore.. looks like a open wave.. though does look like a lot of the energy will pass north of DR

[Blown Away]

It's pretty clear the trend is E or right. I think the NHC didn't make any changes to the track because of the uncertainty of Ana surviving. If that center survives and reforms or skirts the N coast of the DR that track is going to be, IMO, into the SFL area. The Ships model even reflects a Cat 1 hurricane. Ana could become a big deal for Bahamas and SFL in a big hurry! Ana is finding a way to survive, in the last 18 hours she has moved a full 2 degrees N while moving 7 degrees W, she sees the DR wall and is trying to dance around it.

[somethingfunny]

Hehe. The first page of this thread is pretty interesting.

If Ana ends up destroying itself over Hispaniola, would any development from the remnant convection be renamed 02L Ana or would it become 05L Danny, assuming the LLC does not survive?

[bob rulz]

Hehe. The first page of this thread is pretty interesting.

If Ana ends up destroying itself over Hispaniola, would any development from the remnant convection be renamed 02L Ana or would it become 05L Danny, assuming the LLC does not survive?

It would stay Ana unless it merges with another disturbance.

[Frank2]

Ana banana rama seems down to two small (peanut) clusters of thunderstorms:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

we had far more weather in South Florida with the future Claudette than with the present former Ana...

My guess is that it's toast...

Frank

P.S. The way I'm writing, it must be lunchtime...