ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA (02L)

[robbielyn]

looks to me the center or whats left of it south of puerto rico if you follow the spin from when it was a ts all the way to puerto rico don't take your eye of it you can see a rotation. Its were cycloneye said it was about two hours ago when he put a circle around it.

[Sanibel]

The center does look south of Puerto Rico after all is said and done. So maybe the model initial was correct.

This has suffered a bad hit and is racing towards the high mountains of Hispaniola.


Maybe Frank 2 is right about Ana banana.

[Steve H.]

Actually, looking through some of the blown off convection from the Sw'erly shear, it appears that some semblance of a circulation is coming off the West coast of Puerto Rico. The convection is still firing off the SW coast of the island though. If Ana is to survive, she must stay just north of the DR IMO.

[Stormsfury]

Actually, looking through some of the blown off convection from the Sw'erly shear, it appears that some semblance of a circulation is coming off the West coast of Puerto Rico. The convection is still firing off the SW coast of the island though. If Ana is to survive, she must stay just north of the DR IMO.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if a reformation occurs around the mid level vorticity.

[robbielyn]

the center looks like its stairstepping wnw if you look at the above graphic. she could possible skirt north of the dr if she hurries up. No on second thought she will go through the dr but maybe as she goes wnw she will go through the northern part of the island get out in the the waters albeit still close to haiti and cuba which could cause her to not develop much but then into the gulf watch out.

[srainhoutx]

I suggest we be very careful concerning any CoC. Ana lost the evident LLC we saw prior to the Islands. IMHO, RECON will verify where (if any) true CoC is located.

[HurricaneQueen]

Have no idea what is going to happening with Anna but she has been a fighter and history shows what can happen with fighter. How many times were major hurricanes written off before the regenerated.

Speaking of historical, I don't understand the comparisons between Ana and Andrew except that the first named storm occurred in August. Andrews genisis (25.2N and 68.8W, I believe) was much further north and west of Ana's CURRENT location.

[robbielyn]

I suggest we be very careful concerning any CoC. Ana lost the evident LLC we saw prior to the Islands. IMHO, RECON will verify where (if any) true CoC is located.

Agreed in my earlier post i stated or whats left of it i tend to not want to repeat myself so i was thinking knowledgeable people would get that. sorry my bad, i do that alot in my conversations expecting everyone to read my mind lol.

[Frank2]

This is in the running for the weakest looking TD award (broadcast on ESPN this Fall):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[robbielyn]

Have no idea what is going to happening with Anna but she has been a fighter and history shows what can happen with fighter. How many times were major hurricanes written off before the regenerated.

Speaking of historical, I don't understand the comparisons between Ana and Andrew except that the first named storm occurred in August. Andrews genisis (25.2N and 68.8W, I believe) was much further north and west of Ana's CURRENT location.

It had more to do with the struggling storm then bang here comes andrew rather than with location. They are basically saying ana could all the sudden blow up like andrewjust cause she is weak we shouldn't write her off the books just yet and andrew was in el nino like ana other than that i guess there is no comparison.

[ronjon]

All this talk about Hispanola destroying Ana is missing the point. That only applies to well developed storms not a MLC or tropical wave that Ana is now. Ana is essentially a tropical wave with a mid-level center. Where we need to watch is a new LLC developing probably off the north coast of Hispanola, SE bahamas, or FL straits when conditions become more favorable as far as forward speed and less shear.

[Evil Jeremy]

Where we need to watch is a new LLC developing probably off the north coast of Hispanola or in the SE bahamas when conditions become more favorable as far as forward speed and less shear.

Do you think the new burst of convection off of the northern DR coast could be the beginning of a reformation?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

The radar is poor but the center could be in the Mona Passage.


More like tomorrow morning for possible re-emergence.

[vacanechaser]

i would agree with some here that the wave is weak... no real low level center... that should help ana gross the island without a lot of trouble, if thats what happens of course... not to mention,the forward speed of ana is rather quick... this would help as well get her across the island and back over the water... that is of course if that is what the happens and the center, if there is one down there does not try to reform further north... but that option is possible as well.... and the convection is not all that bad up there either... so it is certainly possible... you tell it is getting into a more moist area now with that convection holding on like it is... gonna be interesting to say the least



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
258 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...RIP CURRENT EVENT POSSIBLE LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

TONIGHT/TUE...SHOWER AND ISOLD STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER LAND WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC
WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING TO CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW SPOTS.
THINK THE TREASURE COAST WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL SHOWERS (30%) WITH 20% FARTHER NORTH. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL MINS ESP ALG THE COAST. TUE...A
BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED BY GFS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
EAST WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A LITTLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER EC FL. WILL KEEP 40% POPS AREAWIDE BUT MAY NEED TO
BUMP PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO 50%. THIS INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES IS
NOT RELATED TO TD ANA.

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA BUT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL STILL LEAVE US WITH AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT OF WIND FOR THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TUE NIGHT AND INTO THE GULF ON WED. THIS TROUGH WILL
ALLOW ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA TO INVADE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD...ON WED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. STAY TUNED AS SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST ON WED DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS CURRENT DEPRESSION.
FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PRODUCTS
UNTIL THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CLEAR.
THU-MON...(PREVIOUS)...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH ALOFT PUSHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT/FILL SO WE SHOULD STAY IN A MOIST SOUTH WIND FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ANA
LINGERING IN THE VICINITY ON THU. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WET
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND HAVE GONE WITH 50 POPS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z MOS.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AND FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY EXPECT CONVECTION TO
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME...WITH THE
MODELS EVEN SUGGESTING A LIGHT SOUTHWEST STEERING LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING.

THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW BILL RECURVING BETWEEN 60-70W LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE WAVE WATCH MODEL SHOWS FORERUNNER SWELL REACHING THE
AREA ON FRI THEN INCREASES LONG PERIOD SWELLS OVER THE WEEKEND.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO GOOD SURFING CONDITIONS BUT ALSO A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.


SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It wont destroy anna enough. Anna more than likely will reform somewhat. Similiar to claudette. The climate is just that good down there.

[canes04]

Is recon going in today?

I think she has a chance to regroup overnight.

[MGC]

Looks like an open wave to me.....MGC

[robbielyn]

Where we need to watch is a new LLC developing probably off the north coast of Hispanola or in the SE bahamas when conditions become more favorable as far as forward speed and less shear.

Do you think the new burst of convection off of the northern DR coast could be the beginning of a reformation?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think it could very well be reforming up there if you look at visible

[Thunder44]

Is recon going in today?

I think she has a chance to regroup overnight.

Yeah, they are in there now, flying in the Mona passage. They haven't found any west winds yet. This could be downgraded to a wave at 5pm.