ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (Models)
thanks, just curious, was it the cgun and ngxi again?
No, these aren't unique model runs per say. The graphic is a mash up of ensembles using the same 'base' model with slightly different initial conditions and in some cases, different physics packages that one can plug in to the model. The base models are comprised of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and CMC giving 112 ensemble members off these 4 base models.
It's just a way to account for observation and model uncertainty and to see how that affects the future track spread or cone of uncertainty.
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Re:
gatorcane wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Folks, the model support indicating it will miss the Leewards is in such excellent agreement not sure we need to keep mentioning or hinting at any possibilities it will move much more west than where the NHC has it going, at least within the next 3-4 days or so -- and I even think that 3-5 day cone should shift more to the right over time as well. There really is no debate with the fact it will miss the Leewards to the north far enough so that all the winds and heavy rain will be far to the north. Additionally I will say those in Florida are safe and probably anywhere south of North Carolina --- very safe from Bill.
If this system can just miss Bermuda and landmasses upstream from that (a pretty decent chance but still not certain), we could have the perfect Atlantic system to track -- a major churning harmlessly in the Atlantic.
Model agreement and what really happens can be quite different and you know that as well as anyone. To say there is NO debate is like saying it's 100 percent certain. I'm sure north is the direction...but for us the when can get mighty close and the difference in being right or wrong can be very serious with a big storm. so please don't go saying people are safe when you (unless you have a lot bigger pull with Mother Nature than anyone in the universe) don't know.
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Squarethecircle
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Gustywind
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Re: west motion
sandyb wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
doesnt it look like its moving west now?
sure? It's just a wobble i tkink 
but the last two frames seems to show a west motion.
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x-y-no
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- Posts: 8359
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- Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
- Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
WTNT43 KNHC 181500
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH
OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE EYE OF BILL IS
QUITE LARGE...MEASURING ABOUT 35-40 NM IN DIAMETER. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. A HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
REMNANTS OF ANA HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY INTO BILL THIS AFTERNOON.
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. BILL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW BILL TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO DURING THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON DAY 4 AND 5. THE MODELS
RESPOND BY TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THAT WILL OCCUR.
AS BEFORE...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
MODEL ENVELOPE...WHILE THE UKMET AND HWRF ARE ON THE LEFT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD...BUT REMAINS
TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
BILL IS IN A CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND TOPS OUT AT 110 KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS GRADUAL WEAKENING AT
THAT TIME.
THE WIND RADII WERE EXPENDED OUTWARD BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.9N 51.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 55.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 19.6N 57.7W 110 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 21.5N 60.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 25.9N 64.7W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 31.5N 67.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH
OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE EYE OF BILL IS
QUITE LARGE...MEASURING ABOUT 35-40 NM IN DIAMETER. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. A HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
REMNANTS OF ANA HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY INTO BILL THIS AFTERNOON.
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. BILL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW BILL TO
TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO DURING THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON DAY 4 AND 5. THE MODELS
RESPOND BY TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME...HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THAT WILL OCCUR.
AS BEFORE...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
MODEL ENVELOPE...WHILE THE UKMET AND HWRF ARE ON THE LEFT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD...BUT REMAINS
TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
BILL IS IN A CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND TOPS OUT AT 110 KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS GRADUAL WEAKENING AT
THAT TIME.
THE WIND RADII WERE EXPENDED OUTWARD BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.9N 51.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 55.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 19.6N 57.7W 110 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 21.5N 60.3W 110 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 25.9N 64.7W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 31.5N 67.5W 105 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
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x-y-no
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WTNT33 KNHC 181449
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
...BILL A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EXPECTED TO
INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...
1140 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED
TO INVESTIGATE BILL THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.9N 51.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009
...BILL A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EXPECTED TO
INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON...
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT 705 MILES...
1140 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND BILL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED
TO INVESTIGATE BILL THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.9N 51.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
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x-y-no
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WTNT23 KNHC 181449
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 51.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 225SE 150SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 51.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.3W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 55.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 57.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...175NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.5N 60.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 105SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.9N 64.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 105SW 160NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 31.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 51.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 51.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 225SE 150SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 51.2W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 50.3W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 55.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.6N 57.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...175NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.5N 60.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 105SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 25.9N 64.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 105SW 160NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 31.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 51.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
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Gigsley
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
Hey there Square the circle. here is the info on eye size.
Hurricane BILL Forecast/Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT23 KNHC 181449
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 51.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 225SE 150SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Hurricane BILL Forecast/Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT23 KNHC 181449
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 51.2W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 65NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 225SE 150SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
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hurricanefloyd5
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- Location: Spartanburg
- Contact:
Re: ATL: HURRICANE BILL (03L)
I agree and disagree I agree it's looks to be moving more westward then wnw as of right now but a wnw movement most of the night tonight???? It was a wobble now Bill is located at 16n and 51w? wow weird
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
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hurricanefloyd5
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Re:
KWT wrote:Its still stair-stepping and also clearing out trhat huge eye so thats probably why it looks like its heading closer to due west, I think direction is the same as it has been all night.
it's almost like it went from 15 to 16 n and then just moved from 50 to 51 west and still looks to wobble possible to the west abit more so yeah something maybe or maybe not?????
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HurricaneHunter914
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- Location: College Station, TX
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
Seems to be right on track to his next forecast point to me.
Seems to be right on track to his next forecast point to me.
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Re: ATL : BILL (03L) Recon Thread
Drops 19,20,21 from NOAA3 mission this morning. Drop 21 decoded below:
Code: Select all
Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 14:39Z
Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Storm Number: 03
Storm Name: Bill (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 21
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 18th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 150mb
Coordinates: 12.2N 48.1W
Location: 779 miles (1254 km) to the E (95°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 041 (About)
Level
Geo. Height
Air Temp.
Dew Point
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1011mb (29.85 inHg)
Sea Level (Surface)
27.8°C (82.0°F)
24.6°C (76.3°F)
Unavailable
1000mb
96m (315 ft)
27.2°C (81.0°F)
24.2°C (75.6°F)
190° (from the S)
19 knots (22 mph)
925mb
782m (2,566 ft)
21.2°C (70.2°F)
20.6°C (69.1°F)
195° (from the SSW)
28 knots (32 mph)
850mb
1,512m (4,961 ft)
17.4°C (63.3°F)
14.0°C (57.2°F)
200° (from the SSW)
32 knots (37 mph)
700mb
3,148m (10,328 ft)
9.8°C (49.6°F)
5.5°C (41.9°F)
195° (from the SSW)
22 knots (25 mph)
500mb
5,870m (19,259 ft)
-4.9°C (23.2°F)
-9.8°C (14.4°F)
185° (from the S)
27 knots (31 mph)
400mb
7,590m (24,902 ft)
-15.9°C (3.4°F)
Approximately -21°C (-6°F)
180° (from the S)
26 knots (30 mph)
300mb
9,700m (31,824 ft)
-30.3°C (-22.5°F)
Approximately -37°C (-35°F)
155° (from the SSE)
19 knots (22 mph)
250mb
10,970m (35,991 ft)
-40.7°C (-41.3°F)
-45.1°C (-49.2°F)
125° (from the SE)
19 knots (22 mph)
200mb
12,450m (40,846 ft)
-52.7°C (-62.9°F)
Approximately -61°C (-78°F)
20° (from the NNE)
12 knots (14 mph)
150mb
14,260m (46,785 ft)
-64.5°C (-84.1°F)
Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F)
15° (from the NNE)
22 knots (25 mph)
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 14:16Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Splash Location: 12.27N 48.14W
Splash Time: 14:31Z
Release Location: 12.19N 48.14W
Release Time: 14:16:37Z
Splash Location: 12.27N 48.14W
Splash Time: 14:31:47Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 22 knots (25 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 180° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 16 knots (18 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 145mb to 1010mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 163 gpm - 13 gpm (535 geo. feet - 43 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 190° (from the S)
- Wind Speed: 19 knots (22 mph)
Sounding Software Version: AEV 20801
Height of the last reported wind: 13 geopotential meters
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level
Air Temperature
Dew Point
1011mb (Surface)
27.8°C (82.0°F)
24.6°C (76.3°F)
915mb
20.4°C (68.7°F)
20.1°C (68.2°F)
873mb
18.8°C (65.8°F)
Approximately 13°C (55°F)
850mb
17.4°C (63.3°F)
14.0°C (57.2°F)
740mb
11.0°C (51.8°F)
10.6°C (51.1°F)
697mb
9.8°C (49.6°F)
4.9°C (40.8°F)
655mb
7.6°C (45.7°F)
Approximately 2°C (36°F)
530mb
-3.3°C (26.1°F)
-4.9°C (23.2°F)
507mb
-3.9°C (25.0°F)
Approximately -9°C (16°F)
450mb
-9.9°C (14.2°F)
-12.9°C (8.8°F)
441mb
-10.7°C (12.7°F)
Approximately -19°C (-2°F)
429mb
-11.9°C (10.6°F)
Approximately -17°C (1°F)
414mb
-14.1°C (6.6°F)
Approximately -21°C (-6°F)
371mb
-19.7°C (-3.5°F)
-23.1°C (-9.6°F)
350mb
-21.3°C (-6.3°F)
Approximately -28°C (-18°F)
297mb
-30.7°C (-23.3°F)
Approximately -38°C (-36°F)
262mb
-38.3°C (-36.9°F)
-41.9°C (-43.4°F)
234mb
-43.9°C (-47.0°F)
-48.2°C (-54.8°F)
195mb
-53.9°C (-65.0°F)
Approximately -64°C (-83°F)
189mb
-55.7°C (-68.3°F)
Approximately -67°C (-89°F)
168mb
-62.9°C (-81.2°F)
Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F)
Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1011mb (Surface)
Unavailable
1010mb
200° (from the SSW)
14 knots (16 mph)
996mb
190° (from the S)
21 knots (24 mph)
957mb
190° (from the S)
27 knots (31 mph)
907mb
200° (from the SSW)
28 knots (32 mph)
873mb
200° (from the SSW)
34 knots (39 mph)
850mb
200° (from the SSW)
32 knots (37 mph)
722mb
205° (from the SSW)
23 knots (26 mph)
697mb
195° (from the SSW)
22 knots (25 mph)
566mb
185° (from the S)
25 knots (29 mph)
551mb
170° (from the S)
25 knots (29 mph)
505mb
190° (from the S)
27 knots (31 mph)
454mb
170° (from the S)
26 knots (30 mph)
416mb
180° (from the S)
28 knots (32 mph)
383mb
190° (from the S)
22 knots (25 mph)
371mb
170° (from the S)
21 knots (24 mph)
344mb
185° (from the S)
13 knots (15 mph)
278mb
145° (from the SE)
26 knots (30 mph)
259mb
140° (from the SE)
24 knots (28 mph)
233mb
85° (from the E)
18 knots (21 mph)
222mb
80° (from the E)
15 knots (17 mph)
205mb
45° (from the NE)
9 knots (10 mph)
189mb
340° (from the NNW)
13 knots (15 mph)
172mb
335° (from the NNW)
18 knots (21 mph)
159mb
360° (from the N)
29 knots (33 mph)
152mb
25° (from the NNE)
24 knots (28 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.
---
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Re:
hurricanefloyd5 wrote:KWT wrote:Its still stair-stepping and also clearing out trhat huge eye so thats probably why it looks like its heading closer to due west, I think direction is the same as it has been all night.
it's almost like it went from 15 to 16 n and then just moved from 50 to 51 west and still looks to wobble possible to the west abit more so yeah something maybe or maybe not?????
Maybe...? Very surprising in the last two frames, to be honest us in the Leewards don't appreciate these type of wooble just at Guadeloupe latitude...
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mf_dolphin
- Category 5
- Posts: 17758
- Age: 68
- Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
- Location: St Petersburg, FL
- Contact:
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