ATL : INVEST 93L

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not quite pining for the fjords yet, but I can smell the lutefisk...


ETA: I saw the master of treyf eating, Andrew Zimmern, eat lutefisk, and have heard many stories about the smell and taste, but have been no closer to Norway or Minnesota than the Milwaukee area.

Well, Cape Cod might be closer to Norway, but farther from Minnesota.


Home made floater, new convection firing, but no hint of organization.

Satellite inserted to get back on topic...

[wxman57]

Here's a plot with some 12Z runs. BAMs are old, but worthless. Just saw 12Z output and it's more of the same tracks for BAMS, BAMM, BAMD. Note the NOGAPS run. It's usually one of the worst of the dynamic models, rivaling the ETA/NAM/WRF.

[Ed Mahmoud]

How do we have a 12Z NoGap? At 1340Z?

IIRC, last nights NoGaps showed the vaguest hint of 850mb vorticity heading in the general direction of SW Louisiana, but did not favor anything resembling formation.

[wxman57]

How do we have a 12Z NoGap? At 1340Z?

Like many of the other "12Z" models, it's based on data from 00Z or 06Z. The 12Z GFDL, for example, is based on 06Z data. It's just issued at 12Z.

[Ed Mahmoud]

How do we have a 12Z NoGap? At 1340Z?

Like many of the other "12Z" models, it's based on data from 00Z or 06Z. The 12Z GFDL, for example, is based on 06Z data. It's just issued at 12Z.

Oh. Good thing this isn't Wunderground, with a once a day post from the head pro met and then nobody but amateurs seeing a Cat 5 headed for Miami.

[wxman57]

JB is losing faith in its development chances this morning. I feel a lot better about it now, too. No worry about development today, that's for sure.

[Dean4Storms]

No persistence so far, if this continues through today and into tomorrow it will likely be nothing more than some squally TStorms for central/south FL.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not understanding why it is an orange in the NHC outlook. Maybe I am missing something... but this doesn't even look like a yellow area at this time

[meteorologyman]

Now you guys are surprising me. It looks like you are letting your gaurd down on this system like it was dead. I believe there were storms more ill then this that pulled through. Convection seems to be building, and storms here in florida typically build betweem 11am-4pm

[Derek Ortt]

Now you guys are surprising me. It looks like you are letting your gaurd down on this system like it was dead. I believe there were storms more ill then this that pulled through. Convection seems to be building, and storms here in florida typically build betweem 11am-4pm

there is a difference in convection over land vs over water

this is just a weak wave. Weak waves do not develop, even with perfect conditions. Its only chance is if the trough digs down and e get some synoptic scale forcing

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure what we're looking at. That circulation is probably the center but it's moving fairly fast. The west side is being enhanced by ULL interaction which is probably inhibiting structure and keeping a wave-like flat side to it. We'll just have to see if it sprouts convection closer to that weak center. If it does develop, it looks like a broad June-type system. A circulation usually gets things going, even if at mid level.

This did have black IR at one point.

[Macrocane]

I don't think it should have been orange either but it does deserve a yellow. Convection is weak, there is no defined LLCC thoguh a MLC seems evident. I agree that we shouldn't let down our guard, but it has to organize more to be a really worth watching system IMHO.

[tailgater]

It will IMHO pop out tomorrow in the BOC/GOM looking better than it did yesterday.

[Sanibel]

I think we should wait because looks can be deceiving. The potential surface feature might be further to the SW of that mid-level spin. The fast movement of the circulation is usually a give away that it isn't connected to the surface and could be a synoptic eddy or sheared reflection. We could just be seeing a gut punch from the ULL and transition into the GOM synoptic. This should sort out by tonight if that is the case.

[srainhoutx]

One point I would make is that we may be seeing several areas of MLC or eddies that extend NE of the wave axis. While all the dynamic guidance suggest FL, I do suspect that there is an oppurtunity for the wave to cross the Yucatan and stall and miss the EC trough. This would suggest a westard "drift" and a prolonged chance for some digging down to the surface. We shall see, but I'll stand by my earlier post for a rainy pattern for FL at this time. The discussion continues...

[attallaman]

Send some rain my way, most of the yards here are brown except for the casinos.

[cycloneye]

The low level convergence is increasing in the area as you can see in the blue circle near Yucatan.

[Derek Ortt]

we need to watch and see if this LL convergence can persist. If it does, it will increase the vorticity in the area

[cycloneye]

[Duddy]

So I'm looking at the models, but how reliable are they considering the storm doesn't actually exist yet? Should we wait until the runs tomorrow when it's in the Gulf?