ATL: INVEST (97L)

[Emmett_Brown]

To my eyes, the vis image shows the beginning of small feeder bands. Also, to me, the fact that the convection is slowly increasing instead of a huge pulse, says to me that it is in the early stages of organizing. To caveat this; July is often the time for disturbances that look well developed, only to be completely absent at the surface, so this could all be an illusion.

[ronjon]

My take on why the convection is flaring is because 97L is moving into an area of warmer SSTs, the upper level conditions have improved, and the SAL and dry air has pretty much gone away. The trof axis is way out to the west of the system, by 5 deg longitude or more - in fact, there is a small upper level high that has built over 97L.

[Emmett_Brown]

My take on why the convection is flaring is because 97L is moving into an area of warmer SSTs, the upper level conditions have improved, and the SAL and dry air has pretty much gone away. The trof axis is way out to the west of the system, by 5 deg longitude or more - in fact, there is a small upper level high that has built over 97L.

Yup, sure looks that way. Only thing we are missing now is some evidence of a surface circulation, which I haven't found yet...

[wxman57]

Run a WV loop. The western side of the wave is clearly running into the TUTT now, which will initially enhance outflow and increase convection.

Ok, really leaving now...

[RL3AO]

Every year we look at the models without a center point. There useless without a center. No guidance until a depression forms. Then Global and tropical models can get a grip on it. Don't even look. It will drive you nuts.

The pro mets are trying to kill this myth on the forum. The models can easily track the vorticity/wave without having a low.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks really healthy to me and has been going since last night.

[tailgater]

Run a WV loop. The western side of the wave is clearly running into the TUTT now, which will initially enhance outflow and increase convection.

Ok, really leaving now...

Yeah you can clearly see the trough axis will be affecting 97 probably ripping it apart tonite it also shows a small high building over it for now. so if the trough does start to lift out in time, I could easily see it develop. But I doubt it at least for now.

[ronjon]

I think that the sudden increase in convection is happening for the same reason the wave in front of it flared up there - the approach to the TUTT. The TUTT will improve outflow at first, as is happening now to 97L. But once the wave passes the trof axis, the convection dies out (like the first wave). In this case, if the TUTT does lift out then what's left of 97L will probably be drawn northward up the east coast. Could bring some rain to the east coast, or it may stay offshore. But shear off the east coast will be high ahead of the trof.

Time to head out on our bikes. Back in 4 hours.

Ah, wxman57, you just don't like the thought of working a 70 hour week, dont ya? I always respect your opinion but everything I see shows that trof lifting out and atlantic ridging building in - in FL, where we haven't seen typical easterly flow since late May, the forecast by the local NWS offices is for ridging to build in from the western Atlantic later this week with a SE flow setting up. This suggests 97L will stay in the caribbean. If ridging is strong enough, it may in fact guide it into CA - I see that maybe as more of a possibility then the US east coast. The wave in front of 97L is progged to move up the east coast and develop a low off the carolinas.

[drezee]

wxman57, we need you to schedule vacation for tomorrow...that is just what this thing needs to get going!

[Blown Away]

I've been watching 97L since late last night and it appears there is more of a WNW movement rather than due W.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,lets do a quick poll about what NHC may do at the 2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook in terms of the color of the circle.I say B.

A=Mantain Yellow Circle
B=Orange Circle
C=Red Circle

[RL3AO]

A

[Gustywind]

A

[HouTXmetro]

Hey peeps,lets do a quick poll about what NHC may do at the 2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook in terms of the color of the circle.I say B.

A=Mantain Yellow Circle
B=Orange Circle
C=Red Circle

Looks can be deceiving so I'm going with Yellow. I just remember how frustrated I was with Dolly last year before she developed. We had a good 3-5 days of impressive flair ups and Mid Level circulations before anything happened.

So A.

[rrm]

B

[Nimbus]

The TUTT looks a little more persistent in the WV imagery than forecast so my guess would be that the models sweep right with the track today if the convection over 97L continues. Eyeballing the track from the first visibles the storm center should cross 15N before -60W.

[expat2carib]

Yellow.

A

[Aric Dunn]

I think that the sudden increase in convection is happening for the same reason the wave in front of it flared up there - the approach to the TUTT. The TUTT will improve outflow at first, as is happening now to 97L. But once the wave passes the trof axis, the convection dies out (like the first wave). In this case, if the TUTT does lift out then what's left of 97L will probably be drawn northward up the east coast. Could bring some rain to the east coast, or it may stay offshore. But shear off the east coast will be high ahead of the trof.

Time to head out on our bikes. Back in 4 hours.

Ah, wxman57, you just don't like the thought of working a 70 hour week, dont ya? I always respect your opinion but everything I see shows that trof lifting out and atlantic ridging building in - in FL, where we haven't seen typical easterly flow since late May, the forecast by the local NWS offices is for ridging to build in from the western Atlantic later this week with a SE flow setting up. This suggests 97L will stay in the caribbean. If ridging is strong enough, it may in fact guide it into CA - I see that maybe as more of a possibility then the US east coast. The wave in front of 97L is progged to move up the east coast and develop a low off the carolinas.

not only that .. but all this started last night around 00z, the convection that is. this system will be a low rider probably trough the central carrib till it starts turning..

[Aric Dunn]

I've been watching 97L since late last night and it appears there is more of a WNW movement rather than due W.

I Think thats just the convection expanding

[StormTracker]

I got your back CE...B!!!