ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[ronjon]

12z GFDL also looks like its going to spare the Caribbean islands it seems, but once again still too soon to make that sort of call, though the models quite happy with a generally WNW track.

Actually, KWT the 12Z GFDL is on a 281 deg heading at 126 hrs - extrapolating it the storm smashes into the northern leeward islands and PR. Run the loop on super fast and you'll see a westward bend the last day or so.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2009081312-invest90l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Derek Ortt]

Just keep the storm out of Haiti... they dont need any more hits

[KWT]

Hi Ronjon, sorry I meant the HWRF in that post!
Thats to the NE of the Caribbean. The GFDL is might close to smashing the NE Caribbean as you say.

[cycloneye]

Derek or 57 a question,both know why I ask it.

Will there be a deep layered ridge next week?

[Stormcenter]

Why wait a week?

I agree with that. I am not ready to abandon my forecast from yesterday of a Carib strike yet. There is an UL near 46W that formed during the last 24 hours. However, the latest WV images show it may be starting to lift ever so slightly. For this reason, and the ECs apparent slow bias for this storm, is why I am discounting the recurve at 60W

Yes, the EC's timing of the ridge/trof axes to the north is quite different from the GFS. New EC is considerably closer to New England, though, at 10 days. All models forecast a trof/front along the East U.S. Coast around the weekend of the 22-23. Timing will be the key. If the storm slows or the front speeds up, then it could be blocked and miss the northerly turn. Or if the front speeds up and the storm is far enough north, it may take the turn north between 60-70W. I'll let you know my high-confidence forecast in about a week.

I think a NE Caribbean hit is a very good possibility (Luis). Next week will be quite interesting.

[Derek Ortt]

we still have a long ways to go before this is a TD. It's just not close yet, IMO

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... B_PROD=1km

no real convection at all near the center. Still needs time to consolidate

[HurricaneQueen]

Funny you guys should mention Luis. I was just thinking about him barreling down on St. Maarten and surrounding islands and how reminicent this may be in another 5 days. Hoping for a recurve before the islands.

Lynn

[Frank2]

Derek,

Thanks for your professional opinion - I was beginning to think that I was losing my marble(s) when it comes to looking at satellite photos (I can tell you stories about my being appointed the overnight person to gather satellite photos during the last season of Stormfury), since 90L is a large disturbance, all right - but not much else, at this point...

As you said, it has a long way to go...

[tolakram]

These are fairly recent.

[tolakram]

Looking at the images above and this loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 130900.GIF

It appears that while the convection is waning at the moment the organization is increasing. In the last few frames you can start to see the wrap around what appears to be the center.

Amateur observation.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued

WTNT02 KNGU 131900
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 131900Z AUG 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 23.3W TO 12.9N 30.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 23.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 8 TO 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM 24 TO 27 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
SYSTEM ARE EASTERLY 20 TO 25 KTS. HOWEVER WINDS ARE DECREASING
WEST OF THE WAVE. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 141900Z.//



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

[KWT]

Its convection isn't that impressive I have to admit, though its circulation is pretty good and its clearly starting to pull itself together, its just the sheer size and broadness of the system is an issue at the present moment.

[wxman57]

Funny you guys should mention Luis. I was just thinking about him barreling down on St. Maarten and surrounding islands and how reminicent this may be in another 5 days. Hoping for a recurve before the islands.

Lynn

Actually, I was thinking of the S2K member Luis in Puerto Rico, not the hurricane. He'd better get ready.

[KWT]

Ahhh well from the looks of the models a hurricane like Luis may not be a bad call either wxman57!

[StormClouds63]

Ahhh well from the looks of the models a hurricane like Luis may not be a bad call either wxman57!

... even Marilyn from the same year (1995) is a possibility... very similar tracks:
Marilyn: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Luis: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Bocadude85]

what about a track like this?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/80/1945_Atlantic_hurricane_9_track.png/800px-1945_Atlantic_hurricane_9_track.png

[KWT]

Who knows Marilyn maybe a good match in some regards but I think tere are closer matches, Luis and Hugo IMO right now is probably the best match but that will probably change.

[littlevince]

High resolution visible loop (12-19z)

Big file 3,7Mb, click to visualize

[DESTRUCTION5]

I really dont get the TCFA being issued so early..Especially with its current structure..

[WmE]

Nice loop! Thanks.