WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[ozonepete]

From the latest satellite loops it looks like, after having moved due north for the last few hours, Lupit may stall out now and not move much for the next few hours. This is because the axis of the trough is coincident with the storm now, leaving no steering winds. But since it also looks like the trough is still progressing eastward at a decent clip, I'd expect that Lupit will resume a westward motion sometime tonight.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Lupit weakened a little now, since it may entrain some of the dry continental polar air to its northwest.

[cycloneye]

From the latest satellite loops it looks like, after having moved due north for the last few hours, Lupit may stall out now and not move much for the next few hours. This is because the axis of the trough is coincident with the storm now, leaving no steering winds. But since it also looks like the trough is still progressing eastward at a decent clip, I'd expect that Lupit will resume a westward motion sometime tonight.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Lupit weakened a little now, since it may entrain some of the dry continental polar air to its northwest.

And Upwelling.

[cycloneye]

2100z JTWC Warning=115kts

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.2N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.8N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 18.3N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.8N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.0N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.8N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.3N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 132.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
MARKED WITH A RAGGED EYE. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE OUTFLOW AND BANDING
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BECOMING DEFORMED DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. A 171629Z TRMM IMAGE
SHOWS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC WITH BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND
CONTINUES TO ERODE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST, TY 22W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EVEN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND TAU 24, THE STR
WILL BUILD BACK IN AND THE SYSTEM WILL NO LONGER FEEL THE INFLUENCE
OF THE MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM AND START TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE IN
A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, WITH HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING BEFORE LEVELING OFF AFTER THE STR BUILDS BACK IN
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS TRACK; ECMWF, UKMO, GFS AND JGSM ALL HAVE A TRACK THAT VERY
CLOSELY APPROXIMATES THIS FORECAST AND NOGAPS, GFDN AND TCLAPS ALL
DRIVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH INTO THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST. POSITION IS BASED ON A FIX FROM RJTD AND INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (127KTS), KNES (115KTS) AND
RJTD (102KTS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.
//

[ozonepete]

From the latest satellite loops it looks like, after having moved due north for the last few hours, Lupit may stall out now and not move much for the next few hours. This is because the axis of the trough is coincident with the storm now, leaving no steering winds. But since it also looks like the trough is still progressing eastward at a decent clip, I'd expect that Lupit will resume a westward motion sometime tonight.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Lupit weakened a little now, since it may entrain some of the dry continental polar air to its northwest.

And Upwelling.

That's a great point. Although there's such high ocean heat content there that it would probably take at least 24 hours for cooler water to come up, and by then it should be moving on.

[ozonepete]

Here's the OHC chart from colo state:

[ozonepete]

Can one of the Pro Mets help out here? I googled and searched and I can't find out what these departments are who produce strength estimates:
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (127KTS), KNES (115KTS) AND RJTD (102KTS).

[P.K.]

As below:

PGTW - JTWC
KNES - SAB
RJTD - JMA

[ozonepete]

As below:

PGTW - JTWC
KNES - SAB
RJTD - JMA

Excellent. Thanks very much, P.K.

Why do they each have different Dvorak results? Is it because they each use different modifying algorithms that they apply to the standard output, as CIMSS does?

[ozonepete]

Looks like Derek made a really good forecast. After moving NNE today, Lupit looks like it is veering due east in the last frame or two. Since the bottom of the trough has not passed east of the center yet, when it does later tonight it should push the center south or southeastward, after which it should resume a westward motion. If that pans out, you have a clockwise loop.

[Typhoon10]

Based on the latest track is there any reason why Lupit why wont come closer to Hong Kong?

[drdavisjr]

Looks like Derek made a really good forecast. After moving NNE today, Lupit looks like it is veering due east in the last frame or two. Since the bottom of the trough has not passed east of the center yet, when it does later tonight it should push the center south or southeastward, after which it should resume a westward motion. If that pans out, you have a clockwise loop.

If this does happen, where would the storm landfall?

[cycloneye]

JMA 00 UTC Warning:

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 18 October 2009
<Analyses at 18/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N17°05'(17.1°)
E132°55'(132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 240km(130NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SW500km(270NM)
NE410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E133°00'(133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 20/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E129°55'(129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 21/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E125°35'(125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 600km(325NM)

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC Warning=115kts

WTPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 132.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 132.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.7N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 18.4N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 18.8N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 19.0N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.1N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.8N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.9N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 132.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
ERODES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND BECOMES LESS OF AN INFLUENCE, THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOMES
MORE OF AN INFLUENCE AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FAST MOVING TOUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA, THE RIDGE WILL VERY QUICKLY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND
TY 22W WILL ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST, A TRACK FAVORED BY THE
MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. INTENSITY AND POSITION IS BASED ON
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
//
NNNN

[ozonepete]

Looks like Derek made a really good forecast. After moving NNE today, Lupit looks like it is veering due east in the last frame or two. Since the bottom of the trough has not passed east of the center yet, when it does later tonight it should push the center south or southeastward, after which it should resume a westward motion. If that pans out, you have a clockwise loop.

If this does happen, where would the storm landfall?

Where the JMA and JTWC charts that cycloneye just posted say: the very north coast of Luzon.

[drdavisjr]

Looks like Derek made a really good forecast. After moving NNE today, Lupit looks like it is veering due east in the last frame or two. Since the bottom of the trough has not passed east of the center yet, when it does later tonight it should push the center south or southeastward, after which it should resume a westward motion. If that pans out, you have a clockwise loop.

If this does happen, where would the storm landfall?

Where the JMA and JTWC charts that cycloneye just posted say: the very north coast of Luzon.

Thank you for your response.

I'll keep a closer eye on this.

[ricmood]

Any chance of lupit heading towards japan?

[ozonepete]

Any chance of lupit heading towards japan?

Way too far in the future to know.

[oaba09]

It seems to have move a little bit to the northeast....I guess it's about to go west soon....

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 17.2N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 17.9N 132.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 200000UTC 18.4N 129.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 210000UTC 18.9N 125.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =

[ozonepete]

That trough is really digging in to the northwest of Lupit. Although I'd still say Lupit won't get caught by it, if that trough digs any much deeper to the south, this storm may just blow out to the northeast.