ATL: TROPICAL STORM BILL (03L)

[MGC]

Eye appears to be contracting and convection is now well established in all quads. Looks like Bill is intensifying at a good clip....MGC

[cycloneye]

95kts at the 5 PM Advisory.

[KWT]

Yeah probably will be a category-3 hurricane sooner rather then later if it keeps on contracting that eye.

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 182046
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNGER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST OR ABOUT 635 MILES...1025 KM...EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE
OF BILL WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND
BILL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.6N 52.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

WTNT43 KNHC 182047
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

BILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
BILL THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 114
KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR OBSERVED MAXIMUM WINDS
AROUND 85 KT IN EACH QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. USING A BLEND OF
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
90 AND 102 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CHANGED VERY LITTLE THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH DAY 2...AND HAS NOT BEEN
ADJUSTED APPRECIABLY BEYOND THAT TIME AS WELL. THE NEW FORECAST
LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE USUALLY
WELL-PERFORMING ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS GRADUALLY
INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.6N 52.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 54.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.9N 56.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 20.7N 59.3W 115 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 22.6N 61.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 27.3N 65.8W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 40.5N 65.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[Brent]

HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
BILL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 52.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 225SE 150SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 52.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 51.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.5N 54.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.9N 56.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.7N 59.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 105SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.3N 65.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 65SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 105SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 40.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 52.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

BILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
BILL THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 114
KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR OBSERVED MAXIMUM WINDS
AROUND 85 KT IN EACH QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. USING A BLEND OF
THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT.
THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
90 AND 102 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A
WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CHANGED VERY LITTLE THROUGH 48
HOURS...BUT HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH DAY 2...AND HAS NOT BEEN
ADJUSTED APPRECIABLY BEYOND THAT TIME AS WELL. THE NEW FORECAST
LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE USUALLY
WELL-PERFORMING ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS GRADUALLY
INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. BEYOND 72 HOURS...DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.6N 52.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 54.3W 105 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 18.9N 56.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 20.7N 59.3W 115 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 22.6N 61.8W 115 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 27.3N 65.8W 110 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 33.5N 68.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 40.5N 65.5W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[bob rulz]

Well I'll be damned if this isn't the best-looking category 2 hurricane I've ever seen.

[weatherSnoop]

000
URNT15 KNHC 181959
AF303 0103A BILL HDOB 32 20090818
194900 1506N 05322W 6941 03164 0034 +085 +082 318033 035 035 001 00
194930 1505N 05323W 6943 03163 0034 +085 +082 313034 035 032 001 00
195000 1504N 05325W 6942 03166 0039 +080 +080 311033 033 031 002 00
195030 1502N 05326W 6944 03164 0037 +086 +083 315033 034 030 003 03
195100 1503N 05327W 6947 03162 0040 +084 +083 320035 036 037 004 00
195130 1503N 05329W 6943 03168 0055 +074 +074 321033 034 042 006 01
195200 1503N 05331W 6942 03166 0045 +073 +073 319030 035 043 013 01
195230 1504N 05332W 6950 03157 9990 +070 +999 320030 032 043 014 01
195300 1504N 05334W 6937 03173 9990 +077 +999 320030 032 039 011 01
195330 1505N 05336W 6941 03169 0041 +084 +084 321028 029 034 009 00
195400 1505N 05337W 6941 03170 0044 +083 +083 320026 027 034 001 00
195430 1505N 05339W 6949 03162 0047 +083 +072 324027 027 036 000 00
195500 1506N 05342W 6956 03157 0046 +087 +074 330026 027 036 000 00
195530 1507N 05344W 6955 03161 0046 +087 +071 330029 030 038 000 03
195600 1507N 05346W 6955 03161 0044 +087 +068 331031 033 038 001 03
195630 1508N 05348W 6957 03157 0049 +085 +071 329033 035 037 003 00
195700 1508N 05350W 6971 03138 0048 +082 +076 330033 034 036 004 05
195730 1508N 05352W 6961 03152 0047 +086 +075 330035 036 034 003 03
195800 1508N 05354W 6946 03169 0044 +089 +071 330036 037 033 002 00
195830 1507N 05356W 6942 03176 0048 +083 +083 337033 036 034 006 05

[Derek Ortt]

Quote:
Huh? East of Bermuda?


Derek,

Oops - my error (and that's without TWC or JB)...

P.S. In reading the various discussions, it seems there is a little uncertainty about the strength of the upcoming troughs, so, make that "west of Bermuda" (but east of Cape Hatteras)...

=D

mmmm...does that not make it south of Cape Cod? This thing is way too close....If the troughs are weaker than expected....then what?

weaker trough means farther east track

[StormClouds63]

Notice the northwest portion of storm not as symmetrical ... could that be some shear or dry area to its northwest? Eye and eyewall seem much closer to the storm's periphery on that side of the circulation.

[Brent]

[caribepr]

KWT, I'm suprised at another recon with a system that is so far away and not much of a threat to conus.

Of course it is a beauty, a great training flight.

Boy, it's good to have a bit of a burning and be able to take someone to task. Did you post this for a joke? That would be the first thing I'd ask...second, if not, SO FAR AWAY AND NOT MUCH OF A THREAT TO CONUS.

Gee, how about a few thousands who live on the islands, are you daft??? That is the most ignorant post here on S2K in a few years. You get the prize.

Great training flight indeed. Good lord.

[bob rulz]

KWT, I'm suprised at another recon with a system that is so far away and not much of a threat to conus.

Of course it is a beauty, a great training flight.

Boy, it's good to have a bit of a burning and be able to take someone to task. Did you post this for a joke? That would be the first thing I'd ask...second, if not, SO FAR AWAY AND NOT MUCH OF A THREAT TO CONUS.

Gee, how about a few thousands who live on the islands, are you daft??? That is the most ignorant post here on S2K in a few years. You get the prize.

Great training flight indeed. Good lord.

I don't know how many times this has to be said but it's not a threat to the islands at all, not to mention this entire post as a whole is overreacting for no reason.

And yes it's a threat to Bermuda and POSSIBLY the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada but it's days away from threatening them.

[KWT]

By the way would recon still fly when this system gets further NW closer to the east coast and Canada?

Anyway NHC map pretty much confirms this could be quite a big danger to far eastern Canada, esp if it turns NE just before it makes landfall, then it'd rake much more land that way.

[TheEuropean]

A NOAA-Mission on the way to Bill:

000
URNT15 KWBC 182048
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 05 20090818
203830 1352N 05652W 5710 04808 0049 +016 -124 319008 008 999 999 03
203900 1353N 05649W 5710 04807 0053 +014 -116 317008 008 999 999 03
203930 1354N 05647W 5711 04806 0055 +012 -113 316008 008 999 999 03
204000 1354N 05645W 5710 04807 0053 +013 -114 319009 009 999 999 03
204030 1355N 05643W 5710 04806 0061 +009 -120 320010 011 999 999 03
204100 1356N 05640W 5710 04806 0067 +006 -137 323010 011 999 999 03
204130 1356N 05638W 5710 04806 0068 +006 -139 323010 010 999 999 03
204200 1357N 05636W 5710 04805 0070 +005 -137 320011 011 999 999 03
204230 1358N 05634W 5711 04805 0067 +007 -134 317011 011 999 999 03
204300 1358N 05632W 5710 04805 0065 +007 -131 321012 012 999 999 03
204330 1359N 05629W 5711 04803 0064 +008 -133 322012 012 999 999 03
204400 1359N 05627W 5711 04804 0062 +008 -125 327013 013 999 999 03
204430 1359N 05625W 5711 04803 0068 +005 -127 330013 013 999 999 03
204500 1400N 05622W 5711 04803 0060 +009 -122 334014 014 999 999 03
204530 1400N 05620W 5712 04803 0056 +011 -114 334014 014 999 999 03
204600 1401N 05618W 5712 04804 0048 +015 -113 332014 014 999 999 03
204630 1401N 05615W 5712 04803 0045 +017 -116 332014 014 999 999 03
204700 1402N 05613W 5712 04803 0049 +015 -113 327014 014 999 999 03
204730 1402N 05611W 5712 04803 0049 +015 -113 328014 014 999 999 03
204800 1402N 05608W 5713 04803 0049 +015 -113 326014 014 999 999 03

000
URNT15 KWBC 182058
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 06 20090818
204830 1403N 05606W 5712 04803 0049 +015 -113 326014 014 999 999 03
204900 1403N 05604W 5712 04803 0045 +018 -118 333014 015 999 999 03
204930 1404N 05602W 5712 04804 0039 +021 -127 340015 015 999 999 03
205000 1404N 05559W 5713 04802 0038 +022 -127 337014 014 999 999 03
205030 1405N 05557W 5713 04802 0039 +021 -129 333014 014 999 999 03
205100 1405N 05555W 5714 04802 0041 +021 -128 328014 014 999 999 03
205130 1405N 05552W 5713 04803 0045 +018 -123 320015 015 999 999 03
205200 1406N 05550W 5714 04801 0045 +018 -123 319015 015 999 999 03
205230 1406N 05548W 5714 04801 0043 +019 -130 320015 015 999 999 03
205300 1407N 05545W 5714 04801 0044 +019 -128 317015 015 005 000 03
205330 1407N 05543W 5714 04801 0043 +019 -138 317015 015 004 000 03
205400 1408N 05541W 5714 04800 0044 +019 -133 312015 016 999 999 03
205430 1408N 05539W 5714 04800 0044 +018 -134 310016 016 003 000 03
205500 1408N 05536W 5714 04798 0042 +019 -145 309017 017 004 000 03
205530 1409N 05534W 5714 04798 0039 +020 -140 306017 017 003 000 03
205600 1409N 05531W 5714 04796 0035 +021 -109 305016 016 004 000 00
205630 1410N 05529W 5714 04797 0035 +020 -103 304017 017 004 000 00
205700 1410N 05527W 5714 04796 0034 +020 -096 301018 018 005 000 03
205730 1410N 05524W 5715 04795 0035 +019 -090 306018 018 004 000 00
205800 1411N 05522W 5714 04795 0037 +017 -082 309019 019 999 999 03

[mattpetre]

At the very least, with the steering setup as it currently stands, I would think Bill will jog more westwardly after this current WNW path it is taking. Then time for the trough and a real recurve to begin in a day or so... Just my amateur opinion, do not put any stock into it, I just don't think the models are currently putting enough stock into the ridge riding to the NW of Bill right now.

[caribepr]

KWT, I'm suprised at another recon with a system that is so far away and not much of a threat to conus.

Of course it is a beauty, a great training flight.

Boy, it's good to have a bit of a burning and be able to take someone to task. Did you post this for a joke? That would be the first thing I'd ask...second, if not, SO FAR AWAY AND NOT MUCH OF A THREAT TO CONUS.

Gee, how about a few thousands who live on the islands, are you daft??? That is the most ignorant post here on S2K in a few years. You get the prize.

Great training flight indeed. Good lord.

I don't know how many times this has to be said but it's not a threat to the islands at all, not to mention this entire post as a whole is overreacting for no reason.

And yes it's a threat to Bermuda and POSSIBLY the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada but it's days away from threatening them.

Thank you, god of weather. How silly of me to imagine that science isn't always perfectly on target, despite professionals graciously saying the same. Until it is where all the models (that, hate to mention this in case it shatters your world) say it will go, we here in the islands keep a close watch. Because...THAT is how we live. Have a lovely, safe, live by the models evening.

Edited to add, Mr. Rulz: I am NOT one of those who wish for a storm here. I live on a 4 by 7 island that I love and have many friends among the other islands. Until a system like Bill is past say, 20, we're vigilant. That is where I'm coming from. I have too many friends who have lost boats and homes and lives because of 'models' so maybe you might reach beyond your realm of experience and try a touch of mine before you go off on me.

[Derek Ortt]

By the way would recon still fly when this system gets further NW closer to the east coast and Canada?

Anyway NHC map pretty much confirms this could be quite a big danger to far eastern Canada, esp if it turns NE just before it makes landfall, then it'd rake much more land that way.

I wonder if Canada would fly the storm then

[artist]

By the way would recon still fly when this system gets further NW closer to the east coast and Canada?

Anyway NHC map pretty much confirms this could be quite a big danger to far eastern Canada, esp if it turns NE just before it makes landfall, then it'd rake much more land that way.

I wonder if Canada would fly the storm then

do they have a team Derek?

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KWBC 182108
NOAA3 WX03A BILL2 HDOB 07 20090818
205830 1411N 05520W 5714 04795 0040 +015 -076 309020 020 999 999 03
205900 1412N 05517W 5715 04793 0037 +017 -096 307020 020 999 999 03
205930 1412N 05515W 5714 04793 0040 +015 -080 305020 020 999 999 03
210000 1412N 05512W 5714 04794 0041 +013 -047 310021 021 999 999 03
210030 1413N 05510W 5714 04794 0043 +010 -026 315021 021 999 999 03
210100 1413N 05508W 5717 04790 0050 +007 -031 310022 022 999 999 03
210130 1414N 05505W 5716 04791 0054 +005 -022 309021 022 999 999 03
210200 1414N 05503W 5716 04790 0054 +004 -016 308021 022 999 999 03
210230 1414N 05500W 5716 04791 0054 +004 -014 310021 022 999 999 03
210300 1415N 05458W 5716 04790 0051 +005 -016 314022 022 999 999 03
210330 1415N 05456W 5716 04790 0047 +007 -017 316022 022 004 000 03
210400 1416N 05453W 5716 04789 0046 +007 -019 320023 023 003 000 00
210430 1416N 05451W 5716 04789 0045 +008 -020 322023 023 004 000 00
210500 1416N 05448W 5716 04787 0044 +008 -020 318022 023 003 000 03
210530 1417N 05446W 5716 04787 0046 +007 -017 315022 022 003 000 03
210600 1417N 05443W 5775 04705 0048 +011 -014 311022 022 004 000 00
210630 1418N 05441W 5851 04599 0046 +019 -007 305022 022 004 000 00
210700 1418N 05438W 5959 04452 0037 +032 +002 306021 021 004 000 00
210730 1419N 05436W 6048 04330 0041 +037 +010 309019 019 005 000 00
210800 1419N 05434W 6151 04192 0037 +047 +013 307020 020 006 000 00

[bob rulz]

Thank you, god of weather. How silly of me to imagine that science isn't always perfectly on target, despite professionals graciously saying the same. Until it is where all the models (that, hate to mention this in case it shatters your world) say it will go, we here in the islands keep a close watch. Because...THAT is how we live. Have a lovely, safe, live by the models evening.

If the storm veers to the west and hits the islands it would be nothing less than a bust of epic proportions. Personally I have more faith in the NHC than that. Of course you should keep watch but don't you think you're overreacting? I mean for the love of god all he said was "I'm surprised they're doing recon for it". It's not like he was wishing death upon everyone in the Caribbean which is essentially what you're acting like he's saying.