GOM: INVEST 90L

[Aric Dunn]

so if move more ne of south fl that mean south fl will miss mean area of rain

no there is alot of rain with the other low as well.. should receive plenty of rain

[floridasun78]

so if move more ne of south fl that mean south fl will miss mean area of rain

no there is alot of rain with the other low as well.. should receive plenty of rain

i hope not much in morning i have interview if too bad i call to change it other day

[Aric Dunn]

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WHOLE SCENARIO OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IS DEVELOPING
COMPARATIVELY MORE AND MORE EACH DAY. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS
FORMED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1010 LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS CURRENTLY IS ON TOP OF THE RAGGED ISLAND RANGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RANGE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA
ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
ALONG THE ENTIRE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE SAME DEEP LAYER CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N52W.
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N52W. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY IS ALONG 31N45W 22N50W 18N62W. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 18N62W...TO NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE RAGGED ISLAND RANGE 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO
28N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.

[tailgater]

I been watching the low near 32/52 winds are getting closer to the center.

RUC showing low in general area of both the lows we have been watching.

Time to hit the rack for me. Later
glad to have you back AD

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Lets see what happens today with this very complex situation.Here is the 06 UTC surface analysis with the two lows.

[attallaman]

Is there a chance that this system if it does develop might make it into the GOM and head towards coastal Mississippi and give my area some much needed rain?

[hiflyer]

Looking at TPBI TDWR can see a faint localized circular pattern with far West Broward county as ground zero....onshore just N of Palm Beach....offshore south Miami....NE to SW over the Lake...that should help rush hour behave but after that...grin

[jlauderdal]

Looking at TPBI TDWR can see a faint localized circular pattern with far West Broward county as ground zero....onshore just N of Palm Beach....offshore south Miami....NE to SW over the Lake...that should help rush hour behave but after that...grin

broad area of low pressure right over the pennsinula northbound, be interesting to see what happens this afternoon, not much surface heating to work with thats for sure so lets see where the action is today, i suspect farther north in central florida but that isnt really going out on a limb is it

[cycloneye]

48 hour forecast by TAFB:

[KWT]

Looks like they are suggesting the gulf low will beocme the dominate cycloneye, with the other low just about heading inland to Florida.

[KWT]

ECM once again develops the Gulf low, looks like a lopsided system according to the ECM with pretty big rains for the coastal gulf states. Luckily today the freebie for the main site is the cloud cover.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like they are suggesting the gulf low will beocme the dominate cycloneye, with the other low just about heading inland to Florida.

Which means rain for us without a tropical system threat, a win-win for us.

[wxman57]

Weak mid-level low (where NHC initialized 90L yesterday) is kicking out to the north as the front reaches the FL Straits. Lowest pressures are in the Keys. Nothing east of there. Watch for a low to form on the front in (or near) the FL Straits over the next 24-36 hours. But with PLENTY of cold advection across FL and the eastern Gulf, this will not be a tropical low for at least a few days after it forms.

[cycloneye]

Two things may happen,relocate 90L or have a new invest 91L for the other low.

[srainhoutx]

Weak mid-level low (where NHC initialized 90L yesterday) is kicking out to the north as the front reaches the FL Straits. Lowest pressures are in the Keys. Nothing east of there. Watch for a low to form on the front in (or near) the FL Straits over the next 24-36 hours. But with PLENTY of cold advection across FL and the eastern Gulf, this will not be a tropical low for at least a few days after it forms.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Just enough to mess up a Holiday weekend, eh wxman57.

[ronjon]

Broad circulation evident on KYW RADAR just north of Key West. Appears to be the LLC.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=byx&loop=yes

[wxman57]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS BECOMING
ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER FLORIDA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELED. IN ADDITION...LITTLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NON-TROPICAL
LOW OVER FLORIDA IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[ronjon]

Should we start a separate thread back on Talkin Tropics to discuss the GOM low?

[Chacor]

It's dead, thankfully.

[wxman57]

Progressing as I expected - no significant low development until Wednesday at the earliest, along the cold front. Chances it'll get named are low, as there is just too much cold air advection across the Gulf.