ATL : INVEST 93L

[southerngale]

So I'm looking at the models, but how reliable are they considering the storm doesn't actually exist yet? Should we wait until the runs tomorrow when it's in the Gulf?

Well, they're pretty much in agreement that whatever it is will head toward Florida. In my untrained opinion, I see nothing to change that.

[dizzyfish]

So I'm looking at the models, but how reliable are they considering the storm doesn't actually exist yet? Should we wait until the runs tomorrow when it's in the Gulf?

Not very reliable at all really. There needs to be something that the models can hook onto and there doesn't appear to be anything yet - maybe not ever.

[Derek Ortt]

So I'm looking at the models, but how reliable are they considering the storm doesn't actually exist yet? Should we wait until the runs tomorrow when it's in the Gulf?

Not very reliable at all really. There needs to be something that the models can hook onto and there doesn't appear to be anything yet - maybe not ever.

the models are very reliable now. They do not need a LLC to carry rainfall or the vort max into Florida

I am not sure why some insist that the models need a LLC to be reliable. The equations of motion do not really care if there is a LLC or not

[Nederlander]

Without a LLC its still somewhat of a guessing game.. The strength will play a big role if it ever even develops a LLC.. And that's a big if right now.. If it stays a wave then rain to florida is likely.. If it develops then the models will shift accordingly.. Looks like texas will stay dry from this though with the ridge on steroids over us..

This is an amateur opinion and should not be used as a forecast....

Edit: refer to Dereks comments above

[cycloneye]

The Tropical Cyclone Plan of the day (TCPOD) for today still has not been released at this hour.IMO,they are waiting for more organization and at the same time they may be doing the coordination for the future missions,if they ever get off the ground.

[dizzyfish]

So I'm looking at the models, but how reliable are they considering the storm doesn't actually exist yet? Should we wait until the runs tomorrow when it's in the Gulf?

Not very reliable at all really. There needs to be something that the models can hook onto and there doesn't appear to be anything yet - maybe not ever.

the models are very reliable now. They do not need a LLC to carry rainfall or the vort max into Florida

I am not sure why some insist that the models need a LLC to be reliable. The equations of motion do not really care if there is a LLC or not

Thank you. I will be sure to remember that later in the season when everyone is saying the models don't have a clue because there isn't an LLC or anything. In fact, I may just save your reply to remind others later.

[AdamFirst]

Activity seems to be picking up around the "key" area near the Yucatan...could be another blow up, or could be the start of something more?

[HURAKAN]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest images...

Lower-level convergence:


Upper-level divergence:

[Frank2]

Yesterday and last evening it looked like it might be of concern - today, well...

[Sanibel]

That escaping mid vortex could be the forming system having its top blasted off. If so that could be it.

[Aric Dunn]

latest 925 mb vort map

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sprinkler going in the front yard, again, and even with 2 and 3 time a week long soakings, the ground quickly becomes dusty and cracked.

I was so hoping for a nice tropical storm, a little excitement, no need to borrow mi suegro's power drill and board windows, or spend lots of money on water and batteries, and have the added benefit of a good soaking.


Well, at least grass fires won't postpone the Coca Cola 400 from Daytona next Saturday. The rain is appreciated wherever it goes, and I know MiamiWxSensis keeps a close eye on Lake Okeechobee levels.

Looks a little more active on my customized home made NASA visible floater, but in no hurry to develop.

Re: pro met and poker/open wheel racing fan Derek Ortt's opinion on yellow vs orange. I, in my unofficial and amateur opinion, agreed with the upgrade to orange yesterday, but by last night, page 5 or 6, I thought it merited yellow. It isn't dead yet, I, in my unprofessional and unofficial opinion, would keep a risk area and the invest going, but I'm leaning with the pro-mets, at least 3 so far, not terribly bullish on development.

[Derek Ortt]

Thank you. I will be sure to remember that later in the season when everyone is saying the models don't have a clue because there isn't an LLC or anything. In fact, I may just save your reply to remind others later.

the only time a vortex matters if for SHIPS (as it assumes the system is already a depression or a storm), and SOMETIMES the HWRF/GFDL. However, that is only due to the FORTRAN code and how the moving nest system works. The moving nest needs a center to track, or else the model crashes (and the storm dissipates by default)

[Dean4Storms]

It has some chances at development, I just don't think it is at 30-50% right now. IMO it is more like 20%, a one in five chance. It must become more persistent with deep convection and that has lacked so far. At this point if the convection took off and persisted the rest of today and overnight it could develop a LLC tomorrow once in the Gulf, but the clock is ticking!!!!!

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather.

[Derek Ortt]

I think Accuwx needs to check the global models. They are showing decent northerly shear in the GOM

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think the GFS' recurrent MDR storm warrants about as much interest as this.

Not dead yet, and close to home, but...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't see 6Z hurricane models at the FSU site. If the 12Z also doesn't show up, I'd suspect the powers that be are losing interest...

Ah, I see a 12Z GFDL on the Ohio State site. Dissipates in 6 hours...

[Dean4Storms]

The Euro doesn't dig the trough down as deep, so I bet Accu-weather is basing off the Euro for synoptics.