CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[CajunMama]

My daughters boyfriend landed in Honolulu earlier this evening to visit his grandmother. Unfortunately my daughter was unable to go. With some personal stuff going on in my life i was clueless about Felecia. She certainly has my interest now.

[cycloneye]

CM,it wont be a powerful hurricane when it reaches Hawaii.But it will be a depression that will dump plenty of rain and some gusty winds.

[CajunMama]

Yeah but we all know the damage that just a tropical storm can bring.

[cycloneye]

Yeah but we all know the damage that just a tropical storm can bring.

Agree on that.Here we had the experience in past years of massive floodings in depressions and weak storms.

[Sanibel]

Maybe Felica is a sign of other basins becoming favorable soon?

[CrazyC83]

Maybe Felica is a sign of other basins becoming favorable soon?

Generally an active Pacific means an inactive Atlantic, and vice versa. But even in an inactive year there could be monsters.

[MGC]

Cloud tops appear to be warm this evening....looks like Felicia is beginning to weaken. Good news for Hawaii....MGC

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 070835
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FELICIA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DETERIORATED
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. MOREOVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS BECOME
ASYMMETRIC. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB
AND SAB. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING REDUCED TO 100 KT ON
THIS ADVISORY...THOUGH THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9...THE SAME MOTION THAT HAS
PERSISTED WITH LITTLE DEVIATION FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS. AT THE
MOMENT...FELICIA IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LYING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
AND CAUSES FELICIA TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER FELICIA...LIKELY A MORE
SHALLOW SYSTEM...BEING STEERED WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE BEYOND 24
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

FELICIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR ON INTENSITY
LIKELY TO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE. BEYOND 48 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOTED
ABOVE...SHOULD ACCELERATE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND IN SPITE OF
MARGINALLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF 150W. SHOULD
FELICIA MOVE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS...THERE IS
SOME CHANCE THAT THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD BE SLOWER THAN
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.5N 134.4W 100 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.2N 135.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 19.0N 137.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 19.4N 140.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 19.6N 142.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 19.5N 148.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 19.0N 153.5W 25 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 19.0N 159.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Everything that goes up must come down and quite fast!

[HURAKAN]

Good times are over

[HURAKAN]

839
WHXX01 KMIA 071228
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1228 UTC FRI AUG 7 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009) 20090807 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090807 1200 090808 0000 090808 1200 090809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.7N 135.1W 18.8N 137.3W 19.7N 139.8W 20.6N 142.4W
BAMD 17.7N 135.1W 18.5N 137.2W 19.1N 139.3W 19.6N 141.5W
BAMM 17.7N 135.1W 18.6N 137.3W 19.2N 139.5W 19.7N 141.8W
LBAR 17.7N 135.1W 18.6N 137.0W 19.4N 139.0W 19.9N 141.2W
SHIP 90KTS 71KTS 55KTS 45KTS
DSHP 90KTS 71KTS 55KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090809 1200 090810 1200 090811 1200 090812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 145.0W 22.6N 150.1W 23.9N 154.8W 25.5N 159.2W
BAMD 19.9N 143.6W 20.6N 147.2W 20.9N 148.6W 19.5N 149.9W
BAMM 20.1N 144.2W 21.0N 148.3W 21.5N 151.5W 21.2N 154.3W
LBAR 20.0N 143.3W 19.8N 147.4W 19.4N 151.0W 19.3N 154.6W
SHIP 38KTS 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 135.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 133.2W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 131.5W
WNDCUR = 90KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 970MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still a tropical storm when it hits Hawai'i? So says 6Z GFDL!


Rainfall forecast from GFDL- not a lot of rain near the end, until orographics come into play on the Big Island.

[HURAKAN]

371
WTPZ33 KNHC 071444
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009

...FELICIA WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.6 WEST OR ABOUT
1280 MILES...2060 KM...EAST OF HILO HAWAII.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
FELICIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.9N 135.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



370
WTPZ43 KNHC 071444
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009

FELICIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH A SHRINKING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
AND A LESS DISTINCT EYE ON SATELLITE PICTURES. THERE IS ALSO SOME
SUGGESTION ON NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE
BECOMING SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A BLEND
OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB/TAFB GIVE AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. STEADY WEAKENING IS
LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COOL WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...WATER TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY RISE...BUT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS
RESPOND TO THESE CHANGES A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWING FELICIA WEAKENING FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...GENERALLY
A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS FELICIA WEAKENING TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT AND
ACCELERATED...NOW 295/11. THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WELL-ADVERTISED GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST DUE TO SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS TURN AND LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE EARLY
PART OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STEERING
PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLEX WITH A SECOND MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST
TO BUILD NEAR HAWAII AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
IF THE CYCLONE HAS GAINED ENOUGH LATITUDE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WEAKNESS COULD CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...A TRACK FAVORED BY THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFS MODELS.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SET OF MODELS...COMPRISED OF THE
GFDL/HWRF/UKMET/GFDN...SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER BYPASSING THE WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE. SINCE FELICIA IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK AND STEERED MORE BY
THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
SECOND SCENARIO AT THIS POINT.

DATA FROM A G-IV AIRCRAFT MISSION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE
HURRICANE THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ASSIMILATED INTO THE 1200 UTC
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...AND HOPEFULLY WILL BRING THOSE MODELS INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER-TERM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/1500Z 17.9N 135.6W 85 KT
12HR VT 08/0000Z 18.6N 137.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 08/1200Z 19.2N 139.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 09/0000Z 19.5N 141.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 09/1200Z 19.6N 144.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/1200Z 19.5N 150.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 11/1200Z 19.3N 155.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/1200Z 19.0N 160.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

The glorious times are in the past

[brunota2003]

She is collapsing rapidly, sadly...

[HURAKAN]

Hawaii got lucky

[HURAKAN]

Hawaii comes into perspective

[Derek Ortt]

the shear forecasts had better not decrease anymore than they have or we will yet have problems

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

 EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *      GOES DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *      OHC  DATA AVAILABLE                  *
                    *     FELICIA  EP082009  08/07/09  18 UTC   *


SHEAR (KT)         8     6     5     6     2     6     8    17    20    24    23    12    16


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ ... _ships.txt

Derek,here is the latest shear forecast from SHIP at 18 UTC.What do you think of those numbers?

[Derek Ortt]

a little comforted that the numbers are slightly higher than before. We wer eheaded down the road previously where the values had kept decreasing. That would have allowed quite a bit of re-intensification east of Hawaii