ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[clfenwi]

NOGAPS is running more or less in between the GFS and CMC solutions, ultimately more like the GFS

108h:

[clfenwi]

GFDL and HWRF still haven't found much to latch onto.

[clfenwi]

ABNT20 KNHC 250534
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 275
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS TO 11N62W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...REPORTEDLY MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE PRE-EXISTING TROUGH
GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 35N54W 32N62W 26N67W 20N68W
TO 16N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W IN
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS FORMED IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER THE WATERS FROM
23N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W.
OTHER ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
74W.

[jinftl]

Latest CMC takes a system about 250 miles east of miami before a sharp right into the carolinas. Models may be initializing center too far north....this is not north of 20N and it has reached 60W.

[ronjon]

Models split into two camps with the CMC, Euro, UKMET on one side and GFS & GFDL on the other. The big difference is the cutoff ULL over the northern Gulf. The models that bring 92L furthest west retrograde this ULL into SW La while the GFS is more progressive. This could get interesting since models in general don't usually handle ULLs well - most tend to lift them out too soon.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[hial2]

IF something tropical forms and hits anywhere in Florida,the consequences are dire for those who can barely afford the exhorbitant home insurance costs..'cause it'll surely wil rise!..let's hope it's stays a weak wave,or a tc that skirts the coast.

[KWT]

Yep looks like that, also it seems like GFS is a bit gung ho on developing this now, in contrast to yesterday where it didn't do anything really with it.

Anyway GFS is still taking this somewhat north of NW in the next 24hrs. It's a hard call with this one since we don't really have a center and where it forms could mess up either camps idea, so will be an interesting one to observe as you mention ronjon.

[CourierPR]

It appears to be getting better organized.

[KWT]

I don't think so really to be honest, convection still being heavily sheared and obs that are present suggest that if there is any center trying to develop its still south of at least 21N, the convection to the NE does seem to have some sort of spin to it but its more then likely just a very displaced MLC, watch way to the SW of that region for where any center may be present.

[xironman]

The early visible images make me think that around 20.5N and 63W. The buoy west of there had some decent pressure falls earlier http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

[jlauderdal]

IF something tropical forms and hits anywhere in Florida,the consequences are dire for those who can barely afford the exhorbitant home insurance costs..'cause it'll surely wil rise!..let's hope it's stays a weak wave,or a tc that skirts the coast.

well florida is going to get hit sooner rather than later so anyone that can barely afford it better make alternate plans. furthermore, we dont have a state income tax so that certainly helps unless of course you dont make much which means you wouldnt have much to insure, its not that bad in florida besides real estate is real cheap right now. all that being said, this one looks to miss florida to the east but one of these days...

[Thunder44]

Models split into two camps with the CMC, Euro, UKMET on one side and GFS & GFDL on the other. The big difference is the cutoff ULL over the northern Gulf. The models that bring 92L furthest west retrograde this ULL into SW La while the GFS is more progressive. This could get interesting since models in general don't usually handle ULLs well - most tend to lift them out too soon.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_0z/ecmwfloop.html

I actually don't see the 0z GFS this morning handling the ULL much differently than other models. The main difference seems to be where the models initializes the center. The GFS looks further north than other models.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
358 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...



WED-FRI...AXIS OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
STATE AT MIDWEEK WITH A INITIALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. UPR
LOW OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPECTED TO BECOME CUTOFF WHILE
REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WL LEAD TO ISOLD/SCT PRECIP
OVER THE COAST AND MARINE AREA TRANSITIONING INLAND WITH SCT
COVERAGE INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT
TROPICAL FEATURE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITH A FORECAST RECURVATURE NORTHWARD
WHILE REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE STATE. NO DIRECT WEATHER EFFECTS
ON LOCAL WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED. BY FRIDAY UPR TROUGH ASCD WITH
REMNANT OF GULF UPR LOW AND WEAK STEERING WL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POP ACROSS AREA.




.MARINE...

SEAS SHOW A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BUT WL
INCREASE DUE TO INITIAL FETCH FROM DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL EAST OF
THE STATE AROUND THURSDAY WITH FULLY ARISEN CONDITIONS THU OR
EARLY FRI. ABSOLUTE SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF DEVELOPMENT OF FEATURE AND HAVE UNDERCUT
ADVERTISED WAVE WATCH ADVERTISED PEAK HEIGHTS AT THIS EARLY STAGE.
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATER FOR SEAS AROUND THURSDAY.

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

[wxman57]

Looks more impressive to me today, but I doubt there's any low at the surface yet. Heading to the office now. There are a lot of surface obs in the region, so it should be easy to confirm whether anything is happening at the surface yet. If I was in the Carolinas, I'd be paying close attention to this system.

[gatorcane]

FYIW The 00Z ECMWF is slightly more west than the 12Z, with this system brushing the NW bahamas whereas previously it was east of the Bahamas. A few more shifts and it could be close to Florida. Although it does not look like it will impact FL, we know how things can change quickly with the path and intensity of tropical systems.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082500!!/

[Blown Away]

Closest point is about 200 miles. Not real concerned about 92L at this point.

[sandyb]

I'm in North Carolina and I am paying real close attention, the canadian models is showing a hit right here where I live how reliable is that? I know its early as nothing has developed yet

[cycloneye]

Code Red

ABNT20 KNHC 251146
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EARLY MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

Plane will go this afternoon.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 300
MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. EARLY MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Plane departs at 3:00 PM EDT from ST Croix.

[ROCK]

must had a hiccup in the software....the red is gone now....