ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2009 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 11:50:38 N Lon : 27:50:07 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.2 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -47.4C Cloud Region Temp : -50.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Thunder44]

Best Track now has 55kts:

AL, 07, 2009090812, , BEST, 0, 118N, 280W, 55, 994, TS,

[Frank2]

The models look about as clustered as they did for Bill - next system...

Frank

[Gustywind]

From SSD latest:
Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/1145 UTC 11.8N 27.9W T3.5/3.5 07L

[Bocadude85]

Yup looks like Fred will be going on a fishing trip

[Bocadude85]

Based on satellite images and specially the microwave, the next advisory the intensity will likely be 60-65 mph.

Looking good.. looks like we will have our 2nd hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season.

[leanne_uk]

yep I think so, eye wall becoming clearer

[Fego]

Fred want to see it all...

[artist]

so if Fred really ramps up, what will that do to his movement?

[artist]

[artist]

Tue Sep 8 09:49:55 EDT 2009
WHXX01 KWBC 081236

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1236 UTC TUE SEP 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FRED (AL072009) 20090908 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090908 1200 090909 0000 090909 1200 090910 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 28.0W 12.6N 30.9W 13.1N 33.9W 13.3N 36.3W
BAMD 11.8N 28.0W 12.2N 30.5W 12.9N 32.5W 13.7N 33.8W
BAMM 11.8N 28.0W 12.2N 30.5W 12.5N 32.8W 12.9N 34.3W
LBAR 11.8N 28.0W 12.4N 30.4W 13.5N 32.9W 14.5N 35.4W
SHIP 55KTS 66KTS 74KTS 76KTS
DSHP 55KTS 66KTS 74KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090910 1200 090911 1200 090912 1200 090913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 37.9W 12.2N 37.8W 9.8N 36.0W 8.4N 33.9W
BAMD 14.8N 34.6W 16.9N 33.6W 18.4N 32.1W 21.9N 31.5W
BAMM 13.5N 35.1W 14.7N 33.8W 15.3N 32.5W 17.7N 33.8W
LBAR 15.8N 37.4W 18.5N 38.8W 21.8N 38.5W 25.3N 37.1W
SHIP 74KTS 66KTS 48KTS 30KTS
DSHP 74KTS 66KTS 48KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 28.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 25.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 22.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 40NM


WHXX01 KWBC 080642

CHGHUR

[artist]

Tue Sep 8 10:04:53 EDT 2009
WHXX04 KWBC 081115

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL STORM FRED 07L



INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 8



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 11.9 27.0 270./13.0

6 11.7 28.1 259./10.9

12 12.1 29.1 293./10.9

18 12.3 30.2 277./11.2

24 13.0 31.1 309./10.8

30 13.6 32.2 299./12.4

36 14.4 33.3 304./12.8

42 14.9 34.2 300./10.6

48 15.5 34.8 318./ 8.5

54 16.3 35.2 335./ 8.8

60 17.2 35.6 335./ 9.6

66 17.7 35.9 327./ 5.5

72 18.2 36.2 330./ 6.1

78 18.7 36.2 354./ 4.7

84 19.4 36.2 8./ 6.9

90 19.8 36.0 13./ 4.3

96 19.9 36.3 300./ 2.9

102 20.2 36.4 333./ 2.7

108 20.6 36.7 330./ 4.3

114 21.0 37.0 318./ 5.2

120 21.4 37.4 316./ 6.0

126 22.4 37.8 339./10.6






270



WHXX04 KWBC 080514

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

[artist]

Tue Sep 8 10:04:17 EDT 2009



944

WTNT80 EGRR 080600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.09.2009

TROPICAL STORM LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 127.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2009 15.2N 127.5W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2009 15.3N 128.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2009 14.8N 129.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2009 14.7N 130.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2009 14.8N 130.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2009 15.6N 130.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2009 16.3N 130.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2009 17.4N 131.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2009 17.9N 132.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2009 18.5N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2009 18.5N 134.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2009 18.5N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2009 18.5N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 25.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072009

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2009 12.0N 25.7W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2009 12.4N 28.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2009 13.0N 30.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2009 13.3N 33.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2009 14.3N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2009 14.3N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2009 15.8N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2009 15.9N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2009 16.0N 35.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2009 15.2N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2009 15.5N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2009 16.9N 35.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2009 16.8N 36.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :
33.9N 77.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2009 33.9N 77.2W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2009 34.8N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2009 35.8N 74.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2009 36.9N 72.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2009 36.5N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2009 37.3N 74.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2009 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.5N 158.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2009 11.5N 158.1W WEAK
12UTC 10.09.2009 11.6N 159.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2009 12.2N 160.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2009 12.4N 162.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2009 13.8N 163.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2009 14.1N 166.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2009 14.4N 168.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2009 15.4N 170.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2009 16.1N 171.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

[Sanibel]

I wonder what that says about conditions that Fred has an eye so early?


Is that the remnant of 95L swirling down in front of Fred?

[HURAKAN]

Is that the remnant of 95L swirling down in front of Fred?

Yes, still there.

[HURAKAN]

164
WTNT32 KNHC 081434
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

...FRED CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST OR ABOUT 345
MILES...555 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND FRED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.9N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


477
WTNT22 KNHC 081433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 28.6W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 28.6W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 28.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 12.4N 30.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.3N 32.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.4N 33.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.7N 34.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.7N 34.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 19.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 28.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


231
WTNT42 KNHC 081434
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING. IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE
DATA SHOW THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF INNER CORE FEATURES AND THE
FIRST SIGNS OF AN EYE. AN 0808 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM
WINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT...AND 1200 UTC SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE 55 KT
FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB. THE LATTER VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN WARM WATERS
AND LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. THEREAFTER...SSTS DECREASE
AND AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 40W COULD START TO INDUCE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY
OF FRED AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHILE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS
LESS ROBUST BUT STILL MAKES FRED A HURRICANE. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THAT GUIDANCE AND IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS. IN THE LONGER-TERM...
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS OVER MARGINAL SSTS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND THE DAY 3-5 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
MODEL.

OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF
ABOUT 275/12. FOR THE TIME BEING...FRED IS BEING STEERED PRIMARILY
BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS RIDGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR
40W MOVES EASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A
TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...THEN TOWARD THE NORTH
BY DAY THREE. STEERING CURRENTS BECOME LIGHT AFTER THAT
TIME...WITH SOME HINTS OF A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE NORTH CAUSING A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THE CANADIAN AND THE UKMET ARE THE
ONLY TWO MODELS THAT HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION TO THE
PATTERN...SHOWING FRED MISSING THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH CAUSES A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS HAVE THE CYCLONE MOVING
NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 11.9N 28.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 12.4N 30.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 13.3N 32.1W 75 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 14.4N 33.2W 80 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 15.7N 34.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 17.7N 34.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 19.0N 34.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 20.5N 35.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.9N 28.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB

Expected to become a hurricane by tomorrow

[HURAKAN]

Fred could be a hurricane sooner than expected

[leanne_uk]

Latest advisores showing Fred is likely to become a cane by tomorrow .... I like this news.

What are the chances of Fred holding on west past 35 .......

Time will tell I guess

[HURAKAN]

Leanne, it looks like the shear will be quite strong as the system reaches 20°N.