WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[cycloneye]

JMA 0300 utc track.

[oaba09]

When do you think Lupit will start moving west(if it will)?

[ozonepete]

When do you think Lupit will start moving west(if it will)?

From JTWC and JMA looks like around Monday morning Philippines time.

[oaba09]

When do you think Lupit will start moving west(if it will)?

From JTWC and JMA looks like around Monday morning Philippines time.

Ok thanks...I'm gonna watch out for that.....It has been cloudy here from time to time...There are no rains yet though...
I'm not sure if this is a direct effect of Lupit....

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2009 Time : 040000 UTC
Lat : 17:12:22 N Lon : 133:17:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 923.9mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.2 6.4 6.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -13.1C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[ozonepete]

This is a really close one. I'm not sure it's going to make it under the trough after all. It's moving northeast at a pretty good clip now, and if it doesn't slow down and/or turn southeast really soon it will ride up the eastern side of the trough and head out to the northeast for good, i.e. recurve.

[Derek Ortt]

doing exactly what MM5 has been saying consistently. It should move back west starting late today

[ozonepete]

doing exactly what MM5 has been saying consistently. It should move back west starting late today

I agree basically, but I wouldn't say exactly. It appears to be moving more to the northeast and faster than MM5 has forecast. The eye is almost abreast of the bottom of the trough but more east of it sooner than forecast. I'm still pretty much "with the program" but I'm not as convinced as I was this morning. Although Im quite aware (and very happy) that the models are almost never wrong on track anymore, this one is kind of a cliffhanger because the timing of the passage of the trough axis and the rate of rebuilding of the STR are much more critical than they usually would be in this case.

[metenthusiast]

I just hope it gets caught by the passing trough, veer away, and completely miss the philippines

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 434
WTPQ20 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 17.2N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 17.9N 132.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 200000UTC 18.4N 129.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 210000UTC 18.9N 125.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
NNNN

[metenthusiast]

although I don't know how high the chances Ty Lupit doing exactly that. Are there new forecast track models that's been issued?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[metenthusiast]

ZCZC 434
WTPQ20 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 17.2N 133.1E GOOD
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 270NM SOUTHWEST 220NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 17.9N 132.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 200000UTC 18.4N 129.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 210000UTC 18.9N 125.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =
NNNN

Thanks Hurakan. So today would be the ultimate wait for the nest move Lupit would do...

[metenthusiast]

I viewed this from Weather Underground (wunderground.com). It seems like a forecast track model although I'm not entirely sure. Could I have some Met expert's opinion on this? Thanks guys!



http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp200922_ensmodel.html#a_topad

[theavocado]

I viewed this from Weather Underground (wunderground.com). It seems like a forecast track model although I'm not entirely sure. Could I have some Met expert's opinion on this? Thanks guys!

That's the GFS tracker (formally known as the Aviation Model (AVN)) produced by NCEP in the U.S. It uses an algorithm to track the center of the circulation within the model fields to produce that track. I know it's used by JTWC as part of their consensus forecast, but I don't know if it's used by the local RSMC (JMA).

[oaba09]

JTWC now refers to Lupit as a Super Typhoon...

[ricmood]

What's preventing Lupit to go northeast for good???

[oaba09]

What's preventing Lupit to go northeast for good???

The trough is not deep enough and I believe the forecasts are saying that the ridge is going to rebuild...

[ricmood]

What's preventing Lupit to go northeast for good???

The trough is not deep enough and I believe the forecasts are saying that the ridge is going to rebuild...

Rebuild somewhere east?

[erg123]

Each big organization forecasts changes