EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK (20E)

[CrazyC83]

Linda had better be scared now - T7.6 supports a 160 kt intensity if that is what it can get to...

-----------------------------

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2009 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 14:54:17 N Lon : 105:39:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 911.8mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.4 7.6 7.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +19.0C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Weather Watcher]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=EP202009&starting_image=2009EP20_4KMIRIMG_200910151845.GIF

That is one impressive storm, look at the yellows surrounding the eye...

[srainhoutx]

Linda had better be scared now - T7.6 supports a 160 kt intensity if that is what it can get to...

-----------------------------

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2009 Time : 011500 UTC
Lat : 14:54:17 N Lon : 105:39:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 911.8mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.4 7.6 7.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +19.0C Cloud Region Temp : -76.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Dramatic changes today.

[Weather Watcher]

Huge Storm

[O Town]

Wonder why CIMSS is seeing double? lol
Gorgeous storm none the less.

[Weather Watcher]

YIPES!!!

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 180235
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SEVERE HURRICANE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES
...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 180
MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES...250 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB...26.75 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 105.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


WTPZ45 KNHC 180236
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE
WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY
VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE
COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE
HURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 7.0 AND 7.5
ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE
SECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER
LINDA IN 1997.

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL
FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE
WHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS ALREADY REACHED...OR IS
VERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.

RICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR
SO...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM
MEXICO WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS
NEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD
MAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS
RICK MOVING WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE
IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND
AND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT APPROACHES
BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. INTERESTS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W 155 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W 160 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W 150 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W 40 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Weather Watcher]

Wonder why CIMSS is seeing double? lol
Gorgeous storm none the less.

LOL

[HurricaneRobert]

WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997


He's going to get stronger so he might beat stupid Linda.

[Weather Watcher]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 180235
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SEVERE HURRICANE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES
...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 180
MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155
MILES...250 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB...26.75 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...15.0N 105.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Thats iINCREDIBLE!!! BTW Which Hurricane Typhoon had winds at 200 mph sustained? I don't know.

[cycloneye]

[HurricaneRobert]

Thats iINCREDIBLE!!! BTW Which Hurricane Typhoon had winds at 200 mph sustained? I don't know.

Typhoon Tip. I want to see this become the first to drop below 900 mb.

[Weather Watcher]

Thats iINCREDIBLE!!! BTW Which Hurricane Typhoon had winds at 200 mph sustained? I don't know.

Typhoon Tip. I want to see this become the first to drop below 900 mb.

Thank You

[Weather Watcher]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180236
TCDEP5
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE
WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY
VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE
COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE
HURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 7.0 AND 7.5
ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4
DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE
SECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER
LINDA IN 1997.

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL
FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE
WHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS ALREADY REACHED...OR IS
VERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.

RICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR
SO...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM
MEXICO WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS
NEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD
MAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS
RICK MOVING WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE
IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND
AND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT APPROACHES
BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. INTERESTS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W 155 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W 160 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W 150 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W 40 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Weather Watcher]

[RL3AO]

Oh what I'd do for recon right now.

[ozonepete]

Thats iINCREDIBLE!!! BTW Which Hurricane Typhoon had winds at 200 mph sustained? I don't know.

Typhoon Tip. I want to see this become the first to drop below 900 mb.

Tip was 870mb.

Wilma was 882mb.

[CrazyC83]

Thats iINCREDIBLE!!! BTW Which Hurricane Typhoon had winds at 200 mph sustained? I don't know.

Typhoon Tip. I want to see this become the first to drop below 900 mb.

Tip was 870mb.

Wilma was 882mb.

With its windfield and structure, this is certainly not headed to Wilma levels pressure-wise.

[Ptarmigan]

Rick was a tropical storm yesterday. Now a Category 5 hurricane. It took four days for Wilma to become a Category 5 hurricane. They should do recon on this hurricane. Really impressive hurricane, especially for this year. Rick is the strongest since Linda. Rick sorta reminds me of Monica in 2006. Tip had sustained winds of 190 mph (165 knots). By comparison, Katrina had 175 mph (150 knots) for comparison.

[Ptarmigan]

Typhoon Tip. I want to see this become the first to drop below 900 mb.

Could very well do that.