WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[ozonepete]

well... they do form an eye. You just won't see it on conventional sat imagery until ~75KT

if this intensifies quickly, you may see the eye on the Guam NWS radar starting at ~50KT. I'm looking at the long range now and there is no eye yet (as we'd expect given a 35KT cyclone)

center looks north of Guam. Track may be near Saipan, however

Yes, thanks for the clarification, Derek. I was referring to the cloud-free eye we are used to seeing on the satellite images.

[metenthusiast]

WTPQ52 PGUM 261608
TCEPQ2

TROPICAL STORM 23W POSITION ESTIMATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM CHST TUE OCT 27 2009

AT 159 AM CHST...1559Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
23W WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 147.4 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF THE GUAM WSR-88D RADAR AT AN
ELEVATION OF 24000 FEET. THIS IS ALSO 163 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
ROTA AND 177 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

$$

ZIOBRO

Thanks cycloneye! I'm watching the sat loop from wunderground and it seems the system is already over Guam. I'm wondering if they're already experiencing the system's effects...

[Derek Ortt]

radar shows only an outer band is over Guam

[metenthusiast]

radar shows only an outer band is over Guam

Thanks Derek! nice to hear it from a pro. I'm awfully concerned by the forecast track of this system. I am from Manila, and the track seems to be heading straight towards us (and yet again, it chooses to hit or close in on Saturday, which, coincidentally is my dialysis schedule). When do you think we could get hold of a more stable forecast? Or would this be another "Lupit", being unpredictable as it gets?

[cycloneye]

Guam Long Range Radar

[cycloneye]

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 261704
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM 23W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
304 AM CHST TUE OCT 27 2009

...23W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 40 NM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR GUAM AND SURROUNDING WATERS
OUT TO 40 NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 23W WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 147.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE.
TROPICAL STORM 23W WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH AND
HAD MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY TROPICAL STORM 23W AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. THOSE AT
PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT. REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A
WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. FOR
THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A
WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.
DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT. CLOSELY
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR
OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS
RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-271715-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.A.0005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
304 AM CHST TUE OCT 27 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREPARATIONS FOR THIS STORM SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED...THIS AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL
STORM 23W MOVES THROUGH THE MARIANAS. NORTH WINDS TODAY SHOULD
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH BY TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE OF ABOUT ONE FOOT ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS POSSIBLE. SURF
WILL BE HAZARDOUS ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-271715-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
304 AM CHST TUE OCT 27 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS. SECURE
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A
TIN-ROOF HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS
AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THE SECURING
OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE
STARTING LATER THIS MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
REMAINING INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS 23W MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
NORTH WINDS TODAY SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTH BY TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE OF ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS
POSSIBLE. SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-271715-
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
304 AM CHST TUE OCT 27 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED
BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS. SECURE
LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU LIVE IN A
TIN-ROOF HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. BOAT OWNERS
AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THE SECURING
OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS 23W MOVES THROUGH
THE MARIANAS. EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN DIRECTION BEFORE DECREASING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
A STORM SURGE OF ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS
POSSIBLE. SURF WILL BE HAZARDOUS ON WINDWARD EXPOSURES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM 23W POSITION ESTIMATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 AM CHST TUE OCT 27 2009

AT 359 AM CHST...1759Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
23W WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 146.3 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES EAST OF THE GUAM WSR-88D RADAR AT AN
ELEVATION OF 10000 FEET. THIS IS ALSO 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
ROTA AND 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

$$

ZIOBRO

[Derek Ortt]

center looks better defined than poorly defined on radar

[cycloneye]

Anyone knows why JMA has not issued yet its first warning with a forecast track for this system?

[HURAKAN]

Organizing

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 OCT 2009 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 13:28:30 N Lon : 147:02:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 989.6mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.1 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -41.9C Cloud Region Temp : -56.9C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[P.K.]

Anyone knows why JMA has not issued yet its first warning with a forecast track for this system?

They haven't issued any Dvorak bulletins yet so I don't know how strong they are seeing this, clearly below what others think. As far as I can see the JTWC are the only agency in the region currently warning on this.

JTWC are now up to T3.0 at 18Z.

Edit - Knew this would happen. Advisory issued just as I posted that.

WTPQ21 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 13.7N 146.6E POOR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 13.8N 141.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Derek Ortt]

really starting to organize now on the radar. I'd expect an eye to be visible on radar within the next couple of hours if current trends continue

[cycloneye]

That happens many times Peter Here is the first forecast track by JMA.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

WTPQ32 PGUM 261912
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 23W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232009
500 AM CHST TUE OCT 27 2009

...23W STILL SPEEDING TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39
MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39
MPH OR HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 500 AM CHST...1900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 23W WAS SHOWN
BY PGUA WSR-88D RADAR TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 146.2 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF GUAM
70 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN.

TROPICAL STORM 23W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL
STORM 23W IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN GUAM AND ROTA WITHIN THE NEXT
6 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 23W IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF 23W.

REPEATING THE 500 AM CHST POSITION...13.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 146.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 11 AM.

$$

STANKO

[oaba09]

well... they do form an eye. You just won't see it on conventional sat imagery until ~75KT

if this intensifies quickly, you may see the eye on the Guam NWS radar starting at ~50KT. I'm looking at the long range now and there is no eye yet (as we'd expect given a 35KT cyclone)

center looks north of Guam. Track may be near Saipan, however

Yes, thanks for the clarification, Derek. I was referring to the cloud-free eye we are used to seeing on the satellite images.

Thanks for the clarification guys

[oaba09]

Seems to be moving west...shouldn't it be moving a little to the WNW based on the forecast?

[ozonepete]

Seems to be moving west...shouldn't it be moving a little to the WNW based on the forecast?

You often can't rely on how it looks from the satellite and radar loops to determine the direction of movement. Remember that immauture storms often have a center that's not yet consolidated and mature storms, especially the really strong ones, tend to wobble along, as you saw with Melor and Lupit. So if you think you see different movement than forecast you could be right, but wait until you can compare real position fixes from the agencies to see what's really going on. They use microwave satellite and other observational tools to get the best track.

[oaba09]

Seems to be moving west...shouldn't it be moving a little to the WNW based on the forecast?

You often can't rely on how it looks from the satellite and radar loops to determine the direction of movement. Remember that immauture storms often have a center that's not yet consolidated and mature storms, especially the really strong ones, tend to wobble along, as you saw with Melor and Lupit. So if you think you see different movement than forecast you could be right, but wait until you can compare real position fixes from the agencies to see what's really going on. They use microwave satellite and other observational tools to get the best track.

I see...I'll be waiting for the latest JTWC update then