ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[apocalypt-flyer]

Geogia hasn't experienced a major landfall in a good 100 years. 50 years ago Gracie came close enough.

That said they're statistically overdue of a bigger Hurricane event but they were lucky so far.


Erike looks quite good tonight.

[HURAKAN]

114
URNT15 KNHC 012256
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 41 20090901
224700 1624N 05803W 8425 01582 0101 +178 +156 269010 011 022 000 00
224730 1625N 05802W 8434 01573 0100 +178 +156 258009 009 021 000 00
224800 1625N 05802W 8434 01573 0100 +178 +156 265010 010 021 000 03
224830 1627N 05759W 8433 01575 0103 +173 +155 276010 010 019 001 00
224900 1628N 05758W 8428 01578 0099 +176 +153 266011 012 019 000 03
224930 1630N 05757W 8433 01573 0097 +179 +152 277008 009 016 000 00
225000 1631N 05756W 8429 01575 0097 +175 +151 270007 008 017 000 03
225030 1632N 05754W 8430 01573 0100 +175 +151 256007 007 014 000 00
225100 1633N 05753W 8432 01574 0098 +177 +151 249008 008 017 000 00
225130 1634N 05752W 8429 01577 0099 +180 +151 244008 008 016 000 03
225200 1636N 05751W 8428 01580 0101 +180 +151 241008 008 016 000 03
225230 1637N 05749W 8433 01573 0101 +178 +152 245008 009 015 000 00
225300 1638N 05748W 8428 01580 0101 +175 +153 251009 009 018 000 03
225330 1639N 05747W 8432 01577 0102 +175 +153 260010 010 019 000 03
225400 1641N 05745W 8427 01582 0103 +178 +154 260009 009 017 000 00
225430 1642N 05744W 8432 01577 0102 +179 +154 257009 009 019 000 03
225500 1643N 05743W 8431 01576 0102 +178 +155 261008 008 020 000 03
225530 1644N 05742W 8425 01581 0101 +178 +155 265008 008 019 000 03
225600 1645N 05741W 8434 01576 0099 +180 +155 268007 007 020 000 03
225630 1647N 05739W 8426 01583 0098 +184 +156 272007 007 020 000 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[vacanechaser]

Erika's closets approach to Florida is 350 miles going by the NHC track. I'm not worried.The trough is our friend.

Maybe the through is our friend, maybe not. The latest GFS has a giant ridge in place, not showing a ridge at all, and of course, things will change. It really is to soon to tell who this will effect.

yea, i dont see a trough there... looks like a ridge building in...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

970
URNT15 KNHC 012306
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 42 20090901
225700 1648N 05738W 8430 01578 0099 +182 +156 279007 008 019 000 03
225730 1649N 05737W 8426 01580 0098 +182 +156 273008 009 999 999 03
225800 1650N 05736W 8430 01577 0097 +183 +156 278009 010 018 000 03
225830 1651N 05734W 8430 01577 0095 +186 +156 283010 010 019 000 03
225900 1653N 05733W 8426 01582 0097 +184 +157 283010 010 018 000 03
225930 1654N 05732W 8433 01575 0094 +187 +157 275009 009 019 000 03
230000 1655N 05731W 8429 01578 0094 +186 +158 268009 010 019 000 03
230030 1656N 05729W 8429 01575 0092 +187 +159 263009 010 019 000 00
230100 1658N 05728W 8430 01575 0091 +185 +160 253008 009 018 000 03
230130 1659N 05727W 8430 01573 0089 +187 +161 261009 010 018 000 03
230200 1700N 05725W 8429 01574 0086 +190 +161 269009 010 999 999 03
230230 1701N 05724W 8426 01575 0084 +193 +161 269009 009 019 000 03
230300 1702N 05723W 8434 01567 0087 +188 +163 272009 010 018 000 03
230330 1704N 05722W 8429 01572 0088 +185 +163 271008 009 999 999 03
230400 1705N 05721W 8433 01567 0087 +185 +164 278008 008 021 000 03
230430 1707N 05721W 8422 01575 0085 +188 +164 283008 009 021 000 03
230500 1708N 05720W 8433 01566 0085 +190 +164 287007 008 020 000 03
230530 1710N 05720W 8429 01573 0085 +190 +164 301008 009 023 000 03
230600 1712N 05719W 8429 01573 0086 +190 +164 312008 008 022 000 03
230630 1713N 05718W 8432 01570 0084 +195 +164 331007 008 023 000 03
$$
;

[Scorpion]

Erika's closets approach to Florida is 350 miles going by the NHC track. I'm not worried.The trough is our friend.

You're trusting a 5 day track?

[HURAKAN]

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Man at least to me his seems like a replay of last years Ike. Even though Ike was 10 x's stronger at this time the 5 day forecast cone and models kept saying curve to the north, curve to the north and it never happened. I am concerned the trough is just not going to be that strong this time around in 4-5 days and allows a stronger high than forecast to build in and keeps Erika on a westerly track.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Was it the Euro that was showing a decent ridge building in over the southeast yesterday? What is it showing today? Will have to watch and see if other models start joining the gfs in showing a large high building in as well.

[Derek Ortt]

with Ike there was also 30KT of northerly flow. That was a case where a stronger TC would go more west

[HURAKAN]

265
URNT15 KNHC 012317
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 43 20090901
230700 1714N 05717W 8429 01576 0082 +196 +165 333009 010 025 000 03
230730 1715N 05716W 8432 01568 0081 +195 +165 342012 013 029 000 03
230800 1716N 05714W 8433 01566 0079 +196 +166 336011 012 029 000 03
230830 1716N 05712W 8428 01570 0075 +200 +167 322011 011 999 999 03
230900 1717N 05711W 8430 01568 0071 +203 +168 311012 013 999 999 03
230930 1718N 05710W 8430 01564 0067 +205 +169 301013 013 025 000 03
231000 1720N 05709W 8426 01565 0065 +205 +169 297014 015 024 000 03
231030 1721N 05707W 8435 01553 0059 +211 +170 293015 016 999 999 03
231100 1722N 05706W 8425 01564 0056 +212 +172 300016 017 999 999 03
231130 1724N 05706W 8431 01555 0050 +220 +173 304015 016 999 999 03
231200 1725N 05705W 8425 01558 0043 +223 +175 319011 012 999 999 03
231230 1727N 05704W 8423 01550 0038 +221 +177 286010 012 999 999 03
231300 1728N 05702W 8440 01532 0033 +219 +180 245002 004 028 000 03
231330 1729N 05701W 8429 01540 0043 +199 +182 098007 009 999 999 03
231400 1730N 05700W 8428 01545 0045 +197 +182 105014 016 999 999 03
231430 1731N 05659W 8427 01545 0048 +197 +180 113023 026 032 000 03
231500 1732N 05658W 8429 01547 0058 +186 +179 117035 036 037 000 03
231530 1734N 05657W 8390 01596 0075 +166 +166 138044 050 055 007 03
231600 1735N 05655W 8452 01534 0085 +165 +165 135041 042 056 007 00
231630 1736N 05654W 8418 01574 0093 +160 +160 136044 046 051 005 00
$$
;

Extra. 1003 mb

[HURAKAN]

The convection appears to be playing with the center

[BensonTCwatcher]

what are the pros thoughts on the GFS? forget Erika, just the synoptics.

[Scorpion]

56 kt SFMR, not flagged

[Aric Dunn]

porbably the most amazing convective burst i have seen ..

I would bet there are almost 70 mph wind out there..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[jasons2k]

My concern is the slow movement. This will allow more time for a ridge to build in, and as we go further out, there is greater room for error.

I'll put it this way - I thought the track for Bill was very straightforward almost from the beginning. He just cruised along. With Erika, I'm becoming increasingly concerned this will not be the case. She is not forecasted to reach the Bahamas until Saturday/Sunday. A lot can change between now and then.

I'll be watching the models carefully to see what they do with this ridge/trough setup in a few more days.

[terrapintransit]

It appears the track keeps shifting more west..

[deltadog03]

might be hurakan, but i think its gonna end up being pretty close to the other center. Maybe just a bitw W of the last VDM

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Derek, I know you do not share forecast tracks out past 120 hrs, but do you see any fronts coming down later next week that could erode the high that the gfs is showing at 168 hrs? Seems by this weekend conditions will change more to a typical late summer zonal pattern after the current trough washes out off the east coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hurakan, how long is this mission supposed to last, and when is the next one?