ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[BensonTCwatcher]

Really impressive convection. She's really topping it out. must be pulling in the LLC

[HURAKAN]

371
URNT15 KNHC 012326
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 44 20090901
231700 1736N 05654W 8418 01574 0098 +159 +156 131043 047 046 007 00
231730 1738N 05652W 8429 01568 0100 +158 +151 134032 033 044 016 00
231800 1739N 05651W 8416 01581 0106 +154 +145 142037 040 044 016 00
231830 1740N 05649W 8437 01563 0107 +157 +142 131040 041 045 007 00
231900 1742N 05648W 8423 01582 0104 +166 +138 129042 043 045 005 00
231930 1743N 05647W 8437 01568 0099 +177 +135 121041 042 043 006 00
232000 1744N 05646W 8424 01583 0093 +186 +134 122042 043 045 002 00
232030 1745N 05645W 8433 01573 0099 +179 +135 124046 047 044 001 00
232100 1746N 05644W 8429 01578 0101 +178 +137 125047 049 045 000 00
232130 1747N 05642W 8425 01582 0104 +174 +140 127048 049 045 000 03
232200 1748N 05641W 8430 01580 0108 +172 +142 126047 048 042 000 00
232230 1749N 05640W 8426 01585 0114 +167 +143 130049 051 042 001 00
232300 1750N 05639W 8430 01584 0118 +165 +144 129049 050 043 001 00
232330 1751N 05638W 8430 01585 0117 +165 +144 127049 050 041 002 00
232400 1752N 05637W 8428 01586 0117 +165 +144 129048 048 042 000 00
232430 1754N 05636W 8424 01592 0118 +165 +143 131049 050 042 000 00
232500 1755N 05634W 8432 01585 0118 +166 +143 130047 049 041 000 00
232530 1756N 05633W 8425 01592 0120 +163 +143 129043 044 040 000 00
232600 1757N 05632W 8435 01583 0122 +165 +143 127043 044 040 000 00
232630 1758N 05631W 8432 01585 0122 +164 +143 127043 044 038 001 00
$$
;

[lonelymike]

Ivan the last image you posted is for a week from now. Ericka's fate will long decided by then. And let's remember the GFS is worst performing model this year. According this piece of poop Ericka was supposed to hit the DR and PR last nite

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan, how long is this mission supposed to last, and when is the next one?

SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 17.5N 56.5W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


If I'm reading this right they should have left an hour and a half ago.

Next:

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 02/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 18.0N 58.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[HURAKAN]

849
URNT12 KNHC 012333 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL942009
A. 01/23:13:10Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
057 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1470 m
D. 31 kt
E. 225 deg 17 nm
F. 302 deg 16 kt
G. 218 deg 7 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 20 C / 1521 m
J. 22 C / 1522 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 12 CCA
MAX FL WIND 51 KT NE QUAD 19:25:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 44 KT NE QUAD 23:31:50Z
;

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

Erika's closets approach to Florida is 350 miles going by the NHC track. I'm not worried.The trough is our friend.

You're trusting a 5 day track?

Yes because its showing a recurve 350 miles away.Theirs also a trough over the SE US that is amplifying too,which will keep this away as well. We haven't had a Bermuda high or even a strong one at that this summer. I'm going with the pattern at hand.

[HURAKAN]

Erratic Erika

[invest man]

Could the lastest convective burst be because the coc has made it under the main area of convection? And if so is there anyway to tell other than the recon? IM

[HurricaneHunter914]

Dang, so where is the llc now? If it moved further north, could definitely up the chances of recurve.

[HURAKAN]

821
URNT15 KNHC 012336
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 45 20090901
232700 1759N 05630W 8427 01593 0123 +163 +143 126043 043 040 002 00
232730 1800N 05629W 8433 01586 0121 +167 +143 125043 044 041 001 00
232800 1801N 05627W 8432 01588 0122 +168 +143 125043 043 040 000 00
232830 1802N 05626W 8430 01590 0122 +165 +143 127040 041 041 000 00
232900 1803N 05625W 8426 01595 0123 +165 +143 129041 042 041 000 00
232930 1804N 05624W 8429 01591 0126 +165 +143 125044 046 040 000 00
233000 1806N 05623W 8430 01591 0126 +165 +143 124045 046 040 000 00
233030 1807N 05622W 8429 01594 0126 +167 +143 122043 044 041 000 03
233100 1808N 05620W 8431 01592 0125 +170 +143 122042 043 040 000 03
233130 1809N 05619W 8428 01596 0127 +167 +143 121044 044 040 000 00
233200 1810N 05618W 8427 01602 0131 +168 +143 120043 044 999 999 03
233230 1812N 05619W 8430 01598 0134 +164 +143 117041 042 999 999 03
233300 1812N 05621W 8430 01597 0129 +167 +144 112040 041 036 001 03
233330 1812N 05623W 8424 01601 0127 +169 +144 111041 042 040 000 00
233400 1812N 05625W 8430 01594 0126 +170 +144 112042 043 042 000 00
233430 1812N 05627W 8433 01592 0124 +172 +144 112044 046 041 000 03
233500 1812N 05629W 8428 01597 0124 +172 +144 111044 045 041 000 03
233530 1813N 05631W 8433 01592 0126 +170 +145 111044 044 041 000 03
233600 1813N 05633W 8425 01601 0126 +170 +145 112043 044 042 000 00
233630 1813N 05636W 8430 01595 0127 +167 +145 112043 043 041 000 00
$$
;

[BensonTCwatcher]

I dunno the trough does not look strong 5 days out on any model? lots of ridging with some mild weakness. It looks like a more zonal pattern later in the period. Not liking the CMC I think it's too bullish on the ridge and Erika

[HURAKAN]

[Macrocane]

I haven't seen such strong convection since Hurricane Omar last year, very impressive. The GFDL and HWRF intensity forecast could be right, they did well with Jimena's intensity.

[deltadog03]

The LLC is dancing all around the convection. It may continue to do that for awhile.

[wxman57]

Dang, so where is the llc now? If it moved further north, could definitely up the chances of recurve.

Don't pay too much attention to these fixes now, as it's just starting to wrap up with the center tucking under the convection. Once the relocation/organization is complete it'll be easier to determine motion. I think hurricane strength is looking more likely, by the way. And I still think most (if not all) of the 1-min TS winds will remain north of the eastern Caribbean. Probably just a grazing event for you folks in the BVI. Recurve east of the U.S. is most likely, but I'm not making any guarantees yet.

[HURAKAN]

465
WTNT31 KNHC 012343
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
800 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2009

...ERIKA BARELY MOVING...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN...ANTIGUA AND
BARBUDA ST.KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MARTIN AND ST.
BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
TONIGHT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.66 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT INFORMATION...

LOCATION...17.2N 57.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Evil Jeremy]

New GFDL in, looks like 1.5 degrees to the west of the previous run at the end.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Derek, I know you do not share forecast tracks out past 120 hrs, but do you see any fronts coming down later next week that could erode the high that the gfs is showing at 168 hrs? Seems by this weekend conditions will change more to a typical late summer zonal pattern after the current trough washes out off the east coast.

['CaneFreak]

They still haven't sampled the east side where the deepest convection is....I wonder why????