GOM: INVEST 90L

[KWT]

Most models do suggest that low Wxman57 has possibly 5-6 days over the gulf, that would be enough time to at least raise some interest I suspect, but I agree any transition would take a long ole time.

[tailgater]

Quick scat Clearly shows low forming over the Keys.

[Stormcenter]

No surprise in the short term.....maybe a weak sub-tropical low later this week.

[NEXRAD]

The low forming south/southwest of the Keys is the anticipated non-tropical frontal low. Raob out of Key West shows some pretty cool temperatures far aloft, and guidance suggests that the mid level temps will cool further through the next 24 hours as the mid-level cut-off low tightens today.

- Jay

[gatorcane]

Progressing as I expected - no significant low development until Wednesday at the earliest, along the cold front. Chances it'll get named are low, as there is just too much cold air advection across the Gulf.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree. I also think it should never have been an invest in the first place. Could they just be treating this as a practice run to warm up the GFDL and HWRF?

Widespread showers and some tstorms for Florida, Bahamas, and spreading into the GOM.. that is about it with this one. No TS, no Hurricane, not even a depression will form in my opinion.

The GFS is trying to develop a true tropical system in the EPAC later on this week -- that will have a higher chance of developing than this invest. My attention is turning towards the EPAC for the next several weeks.

[KWT]

Yep, might be an idea to re open the thread in the talking tropics forum about this non tropical low, going to take a long time for such a system gain even a shallow warm core but towards the early weekend maybe the time we need to watch.

[gatorcane]

Time to bring out Bones for 90L Wxman???

I say bring Bones out -- this one is done.

[wxman57]

Time to bring out Bones for 90L Wxman???

I say bring Bones out -- this one is done.

Definitely not! I have a 3-day weekend coming up, so I'm sure this low will have something up its sleeve.

[gatorcane]

Time to bring out Bones for 90L Wxman???

I say bring Bones out -- this one is done.

Definitely not! I have a 3-day weekend coming up, so I'm sure this low will have something up its sleeve.

Darn I am just hoping memorial weekend is not impacted -- it looks like this will be long gone for Florida by then. But hopefully you won't have to work.

[micktooth]

[Evil Jeremy]

This Invest will be deactivated shortly. There have been no model runs for the system since the 00z runs.

[NEXRAD]

Tuesday AM Analysis

Good Tuesday, all. This morning the HPC analyzed two weak surface lows at 09Z, one situated near Key West and the Dry Tortugas while the other is fixed in vicinity of Andros Island. The broad low south/southwest of the Keys is visible on doppler radar; both lows are apparent on shortwave-IR imagery. IR imagery reveals widespread moderate to deep convection continuing mainly offshore Florida in an area of deepest PW's, moisture transport, and precipitation potential placement. These precipitation/moisture fields are being dominated by mid-level - not surface - features, as the cut-off upper low has formed over the Central to Southwest Florida Peninsula. RUC2 analysis (12Z) captures this feature quite well, though the mid/upper low is likely a bit more elongated E-W per 13Z VAD profiles. This mid/upper low is presently nearly stationary, but is expected to retreat Wward today as midwest ridging builds Eward to the north. IRWV imagery shows the mid/upper low to be stationary given increased moisture fields aloft across the Eastern Florida Panhandle. This moisture surge westward well north of this feature likewise indicates that it is the primary meteorological feature in handling ongoing weather across the Ern Gulf, Florida, and SW Atlantic. IRWV trends during the past hour or two show that dry air offshore West Central Florida has ceased its eastward progression and has even back-tracked west with further moistening. This suggests that 1) deeper moisture aloft is fully rotating around the mid/upper low as it becomes better organized and 2) this feature may be starting to edge westward. For today, this will translate into deeper moisture fields presently east of the Peninsula edging back alongshore Florida's East Coast. Widespread shower activity with likely rain and embedded heavy showers/t'storms will be probable today, especially east of a line from Key West to Lake Okeechobbee to Orlando to Jacksonville.

Wind... a tight pressure gradient is ongoing across Northeast and parts of Central Florida. If the surface low near Key West further deepens, then the pressure gradient will likely expand a little with areas of Florida and Southeast Georgia north of a line from Port Charlotte to Melbourne seeing at least breezy conditions. General winds across these areas will likely become 15 to 25 mph sustained with gusts to 35 mph. Slightly higher winds will be felt along the Northeast Florida coast potentially extending as far south as Cape Canaveral during the afternoon. Gale-force gusts will be possible here for coastal communities.

Severe threat... The saturated, rain-cooled airmass across most of Florida precludes a notable severe threat today. With the upper feature deepening and cooler temperatures poised to establish aloft, an isolated strong to severe cell cannot be ruled out. The main threat from any stronger cells that get-going today will be strong wind gusts. While respectable helicity is found across parts of North Central Florida this morning, the lack of any focused forcing combined with little CAPE suggests that only a minimal risk for rotating storm cells exists. If the surface low wraps-up deeper and quicker, then it may be able to develop more organized bands of heavier showers/t'storms to move onshore Florida's East Coast this afternoon. Until deep sustained cells can form, however, the severe weather risk looks minimal today.

For rainfall, additional totals of 1 to 3 inches look to be in the works for much of the Peninsula with highest totals existing along the Northeast and East Central Florida areas. Locally higher amounts can be expected, especially if deeper convection moves back onshore this afternoon.

Tropical development... None likely during the next 48 hours. The Andros Island low is quite weak and is likely to dissipate or become absorbed in the larger scale non-tropical forcing farther west.

- Jay

[HURAKAN]

Chances of development appear low at the moment but never say never in the tropics.

[cycloneye]

A new thread is now open at Talking Tropics forum top continue the discussions and analysis of the low in EGOM.

[Evil Jeremy]

So now that we know this inst going to form into anything, does this still present a rain threat to Florida?

[artist]

seems this thread is actually still open guys.
Won't it remain open until it is off the nrl site?

[cycloneye]

seems this thread is actually still open guys.
Won't it remain open until it is off the nrl site?

It will remain open until it is not anymore on NRL.Any member can come here while 90L is up and makes comments but the main discussion thread is now at talking tropics forum with the low pressure thread there.

[MGC]

90L looks bad this morning. ULL is getting spun up over Florida and should start to retrograde. Nice wedge of dry air moving into S Fla. At least central and north Florida is getting some rain. Big question will be if a significant low develops in the GOM....MGC

[cycloneye]

Invest 90L officially deactivated!

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[Category 5]

SEASON CANCEL