CPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA (08E)

[HURAKAN]

Continues to go down

[senorpepr]

028
FXHW60 PHFO 071356
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI AUG 7 2009

SYNOPSIS

A STRONG HIGH FAR TO THE NORTH WILL SUSTAIN MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN. WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS. THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA MAY BE EXPERIENCED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.



DISCUSSION

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FCST REASONING FROM EARLIER IN THE
SHIFT. HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN TRADE
WINDS AND A WINDWARD TERRAIN FOCUSED WEATHER PATTERN THRU MOST OF
THE WKND. KEEPING MAINLY SCT POPS FOR WINDWARD AREAS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A FEW ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REACH LEEWARD/INTERIOR
SECTIONS. AS OF NOW...FAIR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FRI INTO THE
WKND.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GENERAL FCST OF HURCN FELICIA
PER THE 0900 UTC NHC ADVISORY. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS MON AS
TROPICAL STORM OR DEPRESSION. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS TO MORE
BROADLY BLANKET THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT THRU TUE TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTIES. REGARDLESS OF MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE
TRACK/INTENSITY FCST...HEAVY FLOODING RAINS... INCREASED WIND...AND
ELEVATED SURF CONTINUE TO BE THE EXPECTED PRIMARY THREATS ASSOCD
WITH FELICIA. FOR MORE SPECIFICS REGARDING FELICIA PLEASE SEE LATEST
ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS ISSUED BY NHC. CPHC WILL BE TAKING OVER
FCST RESPONSIBILITY FOR FELICIA SAT MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES
140W.

HIGH PRES SHOULD REMAIN FIXED WELL N OF THE STATE THRU THE PERIOD.
ONCE FELICIA PASSES SOMETIME MID WEEK...PRES GRADIENTS AROUND THE
BASE OF THE ERN NPAC HIGH SHOULD FLATTEN ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO
RETURN INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 824 PM HST THU NIGHT/
STILL SEEING SOLID AGREEMENT AMONG GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES REGARDING
THE LOCAL WEATHER THRU THE WKND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE/BREEZY TRADES AND A PRIMARILY WINDWARD TERRAIN
FOCUSED SHOWER PATTERN. LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL PULL IN
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS. SATELLITE DERIVED MOISTURE FIELDS REVEAL THE
HIGHEST PWAT VALUES WELL S OF THE STATE. THE STRONG HIGH SHOULD KEEP
THIS MOISTURE DISPLACED S OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR MAINLY PLEASANT
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE FELICIA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION TO
START THE NIGHT SHIFT. SHE IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1400 MILES ESE
OF THE BIG ISLAND MOVING WNW AROUND 10 KT WITH MAX WINDS OF 115 KT
GUSTING TO 140 KT PER THE 0300 UTC NHC ADVISORY. FELICIA IS EXPECTED
TO NEAR THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED
WINDS...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WARNING LEVEL
SHORT/MID PERIOD SURF ALONG WINDWARD SHORES. OVERALL THE CURRENT
FCST LOOKS ON TRACK NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGE CHANGES ON THE NIGHT
SHIFT. WILL DO MY BEST TO FINE TUNE SOME OF THE LONGER TERM
POPS/WX/WINDS AS THE OFFICIAL FCST TRACK/INTENSITY FOR FELICIA
ADJUSTED IN 07/09Z AND 07/15Z ADVISORY PACKAGES. ONCE FELICIA PASSES
THRU THE AREA...TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON HURRICANE FELICIA...PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN
MIAMI FLORIDA. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU
IS EXPECTED TO ASSUME FORECAST RESPONSIBILITY FOR FELICIA STARTING
SAT MORNING AS IT CROSSES 140W.



FIRE WEATHER

KBDI INDICES ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING JUST BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OF
600 AT THIS TIME. MIN RH VALUES AND WINDS SHOULD COOPERATE AND
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAGH/FIRE WX WATCH CRITERIA AS WELL. MIN RH VALUES
SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS FELICIA AND
ASSOCD MOISTURE APPROACH.



MARINE

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/SCA FOR THE KAUAI/KAIWI CHANNELS WILL
EXPIRE SHORTLY AT 6 AM HST THIS MORNING. THE SCA FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER AREAS FROM THE PAILOLO CHANNEL EWD...WILL CONTINUE THRU 6 AM
HST SAT MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH.

MID PERIOD ERLY SWELL FROM FELICIA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT EXPOSED E
FACING SHORES OF THE ISLANDS SOMETIME LATE IN THE WKND. SURF HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE WITH POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS SUN. EXPECT THIS
SURF TO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY INTO MONDAY EASILY EXCEEDING ADVISORY
LEVELS OF 8 FT...AND POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING CRITERIA OF 15 FT.
ADJACENT N AND S FACING SHORELINES/REEFS MAY ALSO SEE INCREASED
SHORT PERIOD WINDSWELL...WHICH AGAIN IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK
OF FELICIA.

SRN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL FOR QUITE A WHILE
RUNNING MOSTLY KNEE TO WAIST HIGH WITH SOME SCATTERED CHEST HIGH
SETS SNEAKING THRU NOW AND THEN.



AVIATION

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY. ANY MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED WITH WINDWARD/MT TERRAIN. PHNY MAY SEE THE
TYPICAL AFTN MVFR CIGS DUE TO THE FIELD ELEVATION. SOME AREAS
INVOF...AND S THRU W OF KILAUEA VOLCANO MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR VIS BTN
3 AND 5 SM DUE TO FUHZ.

WITH A WELL DEVELOPED INVERSION AND PERSISTING TRADES...AIRMET TANGO
FOR MOD LLVL TURB AOB 070 WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

NO LARGE SCALE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OF FELICIA SEVERAL DAYS FROM NOW.



HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KAUAI
CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL.





DEJESUS

[Derek Ortt]

an AMSU estimate from 15Z was still 96KT and this doesn't look to have deteriorated

Another concerning aspect is the acceleration of the storm. This is giving the storm less time over the cooler water

[CrazyC83]

Raw T#'s back up - preparing to re-strengthen? I can definitely believe that AMSU; I'd say it is still a pretty solid storm, although nowhere near what it was 24-36 hours ago.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2009 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 18:08:33 N Lon : 136:20:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 988.8mb/ 65.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.0 5.4 5.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -33.5C Cloud Region Temp : -60.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

[hawaiigirl]

Hi guys, I have been reading your discussions from the beginning of felicia and am so happy to have found this site. very informative.
I live in hawaii and was wondering if you guys think felicia still has a chance of it being a hurricane when she comes my way?
thanx

[Derek Ortt]

Hi guys, I have been reading your discussions from the beginning of felicia and am so happy to have found this site. very informative.
I live in hawaii and was wondering if you guys think felicia still has a chance of it being a hurricane when she comes my way?
thanx

it will depend upon the shear

I am giving full forecasts every 12 hours on the storm, with 6 hourly updates (see the analysis forum, PNJ.com or nwhhc.com for more information). Will also have 6 hourly audio updates on nwhhc.com once this crosses 140W (3 hourly if hurricane conditions are possible or expected or TS conditions expected)

[cycloneye]

Hi guys, I have been reading your discussions from the beginning of felicia and am so happy to have found this site. very informative.
I live in hawaii and was wondering if you guys think felicia still has a chance of it being a hurricane when she comes my way?
thanx

First,welcome to Storm2k and enjoy it all.About Felicia,it is not going to be a hurricane or even a moderate tropical storm when it reaches the island chain by early next week.However,you can see plenty of rain and some winds in the form of gusts but that will be about it.Stay tuned to the latest information about Felicia.

[cycloneye]

Mantains at 85kts

658
WTPZ43 KNHC 072032
TCDEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009

VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT FELICIA REMAINS A RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED
HURRICANE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND IMPRESSIVE SPIRAL BANDING.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 1649 SSMIS PASS SHOW THAT THE
EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER WITH ONLY ABOUT 50
PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE KEPT AT
85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...INITIALLY DUE TO COOL WATERS...THEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MARGINAL SSTS AND INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT CONTINUES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT
290/12. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
SHOULD FORCE A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE TOMORROW AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER
RANGE WITH THE GFS/NOGAPS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET/GFDL/HWRF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. THE
AFTERNOON MODEL CONSENSUS LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST...AND WITH NO CLEAR SIGNALS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION TO
PREFER...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 18.3N 136.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 18.8N 138.7W 75 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 19.3N 141.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 19.5N 143.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 19.5N 146.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 19.5N 152.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 157.5W 25 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Derek Ortt]

the latest satellite images once again look like a T 5.5

it appeared as if there was a little shear from the south earlier today and that has abated

[Derek Ortt]

Hi guys, I have been reading your discussions from the beginning of felicia and am so happy to have found this site. very informative.
I live in hawaii and was wondering if you guys think felicia still has a chance of it being a hurricane when she comes my way?
thanx

First,welcome to Storm2k and enjoy it all.About Felicia,it is not going to be a hurricane or even a moderate tropical storm when it reaches the island chain by early next week.However,you can see plenty of rain and some winds in the form of gusts but that will be about it.Stay tuned to the latest information about Felicia.

Luis, it is best not to speak in certanties with regards to the tropics. I ended up wearing a dunce cap while giving a map discussion for that once for guaranteeing the wave that became Felix had zero chance of developing

[srainhoutx]

Hi guys, I have been reading your discussions from the beginning of felicia and am so happy to have found this site. very informative.
I live in hawaii and was wondering if you guys think felicia still has a chance of it being a hurricane when she comes my way?
thanx

First,welcome to Storm2k and enjoy it all.About Felicia,it is not going to be a hurricane or even a moderate tropical storm when it reaches the island chain by early next week.However,you can see plenty of rain and some winds in the form of gusts but that will be about it.Stay tuned to the latest information about Felicia.

Luis, it is best not to speak in certanties with regards to the tropics. I ended up wearing a dunce cap while giving a map discussion for that once for guaranteeing the wave that became Felix had zero chance of developing

Very true words. Never say never concerning the Tropics.

[hawaiigirl]

in the last hour it looks like the storm is getting stronger?or am I just hallucinating ? Would it go back and forth??

[Derek Ortt]

you're seeing the same thing I am and was not expecting this

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... dt08E.html

CI now back up to 4.9 and the raw is near cat 4 again

[Derek Ortt]

and yet the rapid dissipation flag is on? The changes today nearly broke the system, lol

[srainhoutx]

In my humble opinion, convection continues to fire and wrap around the center of circulation. Visible and Infared satellite imagery show that the eye may be clearing out again. Something to keep an eye on.

[RL3AO]

What are you up to Felicia?

[Derek Ortt]

the little bit of shear it encountered earlier today is gone

[I-wall]

Cloud tops are cooling again and the eye is trying to clear out. This thing might be trying to strenghten again.

[tolakram]

Flash Loop:
VIS
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/flash-vis.html
AVN
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/flash-avn.html

Looks impressive. Gotta hope the shear to the west stays strong.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g9sht.html

[Derek Ortt]

I want to see a SHIPS shear forecast that actually has the shear hitting this thing BEFORE 48 hours. The onset of the shear has remained the same for the last 24 hours