ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't think this should be a code red just yet. Anyways, I am watching this one closely from South Florida. It does not seem likely it will affect us right now, but things change.

[jlauderdal]

must had a hiccup in the software....the red is gone now....

the written word from the analysis at 8 is more important than the cheesy graphics

[jlauderdal]

I don't think this should be a code red just yet. Anyways, I am watching this one closely from South Florida. It does not seem likely it will affect us right now, but things change.

why not code red, the code red criteria has been met according to their 8 am outlook

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't think this should be a code red just yet. Anyways, I am watching this one closely from South Florida. It does not seem likely it will affect us right now, but things change.

why not code red, the code red criteria has been met according to their 8 am outlook

Just my opinion, sure it is getting better organized but it does not look like a Red yet, but that is just me.

[Recurve]

I'd make a wild guess that 20n 65w is where lowering pressure might be, if it were focusing.

In any case, what is the track prognosis with no development -- where would you expect the moisture/convection go if it stays a wave?

[RevDodd]

I don't think this should be a code red just yet. Anyways, I am watching this one closely from South Florida. It does not seem likely it will affect us right now, but things change.

why not code red, the code red criteria has been met according to their 8 am outlook

Just my opinion, sure it is getting better organized but it does not look like a Red yet, but that is just me.

FWIW, it's back to Code Red on the Tropical Oulook page...

[KWT]

The thing to watch is when the ULL moves away the NE most convection should die down quite a lot as well and refocus closer to where any developing center may be. The NHC are watching the furtherest east convection whilst looking at the obs any circulation will be forming somewhat further west...however the area the NHC are watching does have decent convection over it so that could also need watching for development.

For now it seems like its just got one big broad circulation, where it pinpoints is going to be key for the eventual track.

[wxman57]

Nope, nothing at the surface yet but a weak wave axis. Surface obs don't lie:

[KWT]

Remember 200 miles really isn't that much away, think of what the cone of error would look like and it'd be close enough to the shore at this stage to at least warrent watching if nothing else.

Of course the main risk looking at the models has to be to the Carolinas and possibly places north of that if the recurve isn't sharp enough.

[cycloneye]

57,the plane will tell the truth about what is there.

[Chacor]

WTNT01 KNGU 251201
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251200Z AUG 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 58.0W TO 22.0N 64.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 250900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.5N 58.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE UPPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
IS WEAKENING AS IT IS TRACKING NORTHWARD. WITH WARMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE TROUGH WEAKING, EXPECT POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

That's too fast!

[Blown Away]

The center relocated more NE?

[HURAKAN]

Convection is popping everywhere, not really a good indication of a center.

[cycloneye]

If I say where to focus it may be around 20N-61W.

[ROCK]

Nope, nothing at the surface yet but a weak wave axis. Surface obs don't lie:

I dont think "X" marks the spot for the center on that plot. I would put it more NW up in the covection. IN the vis you can see low level clouds streaming into convection area from SW to NE. Makes me believe if something was trying to get down to the surface it would be in this area.....also to note there are no surface obs in that area that I can find.

Just my 2 cents

[KWT]

Sounds like they think there is a possible developing center right on the SE side of the convection.

Lots of convection blowing up thanks to the interaction with the ULL, will be very interesting 24hrs I'd suspect. It just looks like a very odd system right now, then again systems that interact with a ULL usually don't look that impressive.

[ROCK]

must had a hiccup in the software....the red is gone now....

the written word from the analysis at 8 is more important than the cheesy graphics

I dont know JL...I tend to enjoy cheesy graphics.....

[wxman57]

57,the plane will tell the truth about what is there.

The plane will help with the winds/temps aloft, but there are plenty of surface obs around the disturbance that don't lie. No LLC yet.

[srainhoutx]

57,the plane will tell the truth about what is there.

The plane will help with the winds/temps aloft, but there are plenty of surface obs around the disturbance that don't lie. No LLC yet.

Check your pm's wxman57