ATL: TROPICAL LOW ex-FRED (ex-07L)

[cyclonic chronic]

Fred very close to hurricane status. t.s. to cat 1 in less than 24 hrs?!! will this throw a monkey wrench in the track forecast?

[wxman57]

Fred very close to hurricane status. t.s. to cat 1 in less than 24 hrs?!! will this throw a monkey wrench in the track forecast?

Makes no difference. Fred's a pure fish. There's nothing to steer it westward toward the Caribbean Sea or the U.S.

[ozonepete]

Fred very close to hurricane status. t.s. to cat 1 in less than 24 hrs?!! will this throw a monkey wrench in the track forecast?

Makes no difference. Fred's a pure fish. There's nothing to steer it westward toward the Caribbean Sea or the U.S.

Below is part of the 11AM NHC discussion. There's no way of knowing for sure what will happen if that trough doesn't pick up Fred and then a new ridge builds in to the north of Fred at the end of the week. That's too far away (next Sunday) for any reasonable speculation, right?

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...THEN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAY THREE. STEERING CURRENTS BECOME LIGHT AFTER THAT TIME...WITH SOME HINTS OF A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE NORTH CAUSING A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THE CANADIAN AND THE UKMET ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN...SHOWING FRED MISSING THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH CAUSES A MORE WESTWARD MOTION...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS HAVE THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

[HURAKAN]

OHC

[Evil Jeremy]

Fred very close to hurricane status. t.s. to cat 1 in less than 24 hrs?!! will this throw a monkey wrench in the track forecast?

Makes no difference. Fred's a pure fish. There's nothing to steer it westward toward the Caribbean Sea or the U.S.

Below is part of the 11AM NHC discussion. There's no way of knowing for sure what will happen if that trough doesn't pick up Fred and then a new ridge builds in to the north of Fred at the end of the week. That's too far away (next Sunday) for any reasonable speculation, right?

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...THEN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAY THREE. STEERING CURRENTS BECOME LIGHT AFTER THAT TIME...WITH SOME HINTS OF A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE NORTH CAUSING A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THE CANADIAN AND THE UKMET ARE THE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN...SHOWING FRED MISSING THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH CAUSES A MORE WESTWARD MOTION...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS HAVE THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

The through that is coming for Fred is big and strong, and will pick it up and sweep it out. Fred might hang around afterward and move a little west, but it makes no difference, the next through will move it out. The through is going to pick up Fred without a doubt. And one of the models that shows Fred missing the through right now is the CMC, which is not really the most reliable model out there, even with it's recent improvements.

Anyways, welcome to Storm2k!

I have little doubt Fred will be a hurricane by the end of the day. Likely by 5, if not, by 11. NHC still being conservative.

[ozonepete]

Thanks, Evil Jeremy. Anyway, I'm still thinking that this one could be wandering around out there for a long time if the first trough doesn't recurve it all of the way. We could still be talking about it next week.

[SapphireSea]

I have a good confidence that this storm is going to RI before encountering the higher shear as it gains latitude. I believe this will be our 2nd major this year. Without a doubt it should be at most a marine hazard, and a wave hazard in the coasts of Cape Verde.

[leanne_uk]

Am i right to think you are saying a cane by 5 US Time?? If so that puts me at around 11GMT ......

Another late night for me

[HURAKAN]

Burst of convection over the "eye"

[wxman57]

This graphic might clear things up as far as Fred's distant future. It's the 00Z GFS forecast of the mean flow from 700-400mb (10,000-20,000 ft). This should be a good steering level. Note Fred's position to the west of a ridge next Monday evening. All the mean flow streamlines from Fred west to the U.S. are from south to north. There's nothing to carry Fred westward. It's heading north to its death, not west next week.

Purple lines are streamlines, yellow are isobars at 2 mb increments.

[artist]

This graphic might clear things up as far as Fred's distant future. It's the 00Z GFS forecast of the mean flow from 700-400mb (10,000-20,000 ft). This should be a good steering level. Note Fred's position to the west of a ridge next Monday evening. All the mean flow streamlines from Fred west to the U.S. are from south to north. There's nothing to carry Fred westward. It's heading north to its death, not west next week.

Purple lines are streamlines, yellow are isobars at 2 mb increments.

thanks for posting that wxman57. It really helps to see what is going on.

[SapphireSea]

Without a doubt I can agree on your analysis wxman57. The intense troughing is clearly visible looking at WV, causing that ridge to erode heavily. Once its N of 20N it should probobly finish the recurve around the periphery of that high + westerlies.

[Evil Jeremy]

Great analysis wxman. I wish the mets on TV would show and explain the graphs and models and forecasts like you do lol.

[StormClouds63]

Fred goes fishing and then drops dead. It's the year of the trough (like 2006), which keeps the EC relatively safe. Impressive looking system getting better organized. At least, there's something now to track.

[HURAKAN]

Fred is pushing for hurricane status at 5 pm.

[ozonepete]

This graphic might clear things up as far as Fred's distant future. It's the 00Z GFS forecast of the mean flow from 700-400mb (10,000-20,000 ft). This should be a good steering level. Note Fred's position to the west of a ridge next Monday evening. All the mean flow streamlines from Fred west to the U.S. are from south to north. There's nothing to carry Fred westward. It's heading north to its death, not west next week.

Purple lines are streamlines, yellow are isobars at 2 mb increments.

thanks for posting that wxman57. It really helps to see what is going on.

Thanks for posting that wxman57. I also feel this will never hit land, but my only question was what's the percentage accuracy for the 7th day out on a 7-day forecast chart? I look at them too but a lot can change in a chart like that over a few days. They have it at 25N 40W but it could be 300 miles east or west of there by next Monday. And maybe there is no longwave trough off the east coast by then but a ridge.

[ozonepete]

Also, that chart shows Fred to be at 1014mb (really weak). Although it would be academic at that point (one would assume sheared to almost nothing) wouldn't you use the 700-850mb chart for steering? 700-400 would be too deep of a layer. (I'm going by the standard steering layers: for >1000mb low, use 700-850mb / for 990-999mb low use 850-500mb etc...

[AJC3]

This graphic might clear things up as far as Fred's distant future. It's the 00Z GFS forecast of the mean flow from 700-400mb (10,000-20,000 ft). This should be a good steering level. Note Fred's position to the west of a ridge next Monday evening. All the mean flow streamlines from Fred west to the U.S. are from south to north. There's nothing to carry Fred westward. It's heading north to its death, not west next week.

Purple lines are streamlines, yellow are isobars at 2 mb increments.

In other words "Right, said Fred" (surprised noone came up with that one yet)

[ozonepete]

[cycloneye]

The SSD Floater #1 is now over Fred.