ricmood wrote:oaba09 wrote:ricmood wrote:What's preventing Lupit to go northeast for good???
The trough is not deep enough and I believe the forecasts are saying that the ridge is going to rebuild...
Rebuild somewhere east?
From JTWC:
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE AND INCREASE IN
SIZE OF THE EYE SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A RAPID
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AND IS NOW BEING
CLASSIFIED AS A SUPER TYPHOON. THE TRACK HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO A
MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN NORTH OF LUPIT FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE TROUGH IS WEAKENING AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD, AND HAS LED TO A
WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF
LUPIT, AND THE RECENT TRACK CHANGES OBSERVED. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
STY 22W TO KEEP ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS, SLOWLY SHIFTING TO A NORTHWARD TRACK AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT
AND THE STR TO THE EAST BUILDS. IT APPEARS THAT LUPIT WILL SLOWLY
LOOP BACK TO THE WEST AS A MID-LEVEL STR BUILDS FROM CENTRAL CHINA
OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC, NORTH OF STY 22W. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR AND TCLP, CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN
