For our friends in the Philliphines,the forecast track of intensity looks worse now as it makes landfall at 115kts or more.
WTPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHRE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.6N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.3N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.0N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.5N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.6N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.9N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 15.2N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 146.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST
OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RE-ASSESSMENT OF THE 06Z FORECAST
SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY WAS LESS THAN 35 KNOTS, SO WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT SEEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
STILL AT 35 KNOTS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM SAIPAN SHOW A 04 MB
PRESSURE FALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
SURFACE PRESSURES NEAR 1004 MB. RADAR IMAGERY FROM ANDERSON AIR
FORCE BASE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF TS 23W INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES
TO WRAP INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE NORTH
OF TS 23W. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, IS DIGGING
SOUTHWARD AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LINK UP
WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, CAUSING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST. IN
TURN THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SEE A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS TS 23W TRACKS OVER A
REGION OF WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W
(LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
The latest track seems to be similar w/ ketsana...........basically, the exact areas that faced disaster's during ketsana's onslaught is in trouble once more w/ a more powerful storm...
) but you can't take any current solution as quite probable or very likely this far away from the expected event. I'm sure we will all be seeing a more clear solution of one or two scenarios by Wednesday.