WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

[CrazyC83]

Seems to be an ERC now underway.

[ozonepete]

Yeah, there's an ERC underway, but it looks like NIDA is starting to recurve, which is expected if you look at the forecast tracks or this CIMSS steering chart. The ERC will most likely get interrupted off and on now by the recurve into the westerlies and ingestion of drier air. While the eyewall is clearly contracting and the cyclone is still VERY impressive, you can see that its symmetry has begun to erode a little bit from that awesome configuration earlier today.

[cycloneye]

JMA 00:50 UTC Warning - 115 KTS - 905 mbs

Same intensity and pressure as the previous warning.

TY 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 26 November 2009
<Analyses at 26/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N14°30'(14.5°)
E140°40'(140.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Intense
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E139°05'(139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Intense
Center position of probability circle N18°00'(18.0°)
E138°40'(138.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 29/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°50'(18.8°)
E138°35'(138.6°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 460km(250NM)

[oaba09]

chart showing the changes in intensity and dvorak numbers...

[CrazyC83]

Looking at that chart, it intensified at Wilma-like rates yesterday - from a Cat 1 (maybe low Cat 2) to a Cat 5 in 18 hours - in fact, it was probably a Cat 5 as early as 25/0600 as intensification was busting Dvorak constraints...that would be a 12 hour jump!

[oaba09]

DOWN TO 150 KTS

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 140.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 140.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.2N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.4N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 18.2N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.8N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.9N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.8N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 27.9N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 140.4E.
SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 44 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

That seems reasonable as it is definitely weakening. I expect rapid weakening tomorrow since the shear ahead is extreme.

[oaba09]

That seems reasonable as it is definitely weakening. I expect rapid weakening tomorrow since the shear ahead is extreme.

There seems to be 2 islands on the path of the typhoon......if it continues to weaken, that should be good news for those 2.....This is the most impressive storm I have ever tracked....

[ozonepete]

That seems reasonable as it is definitely weakening. I expect rapid weakening tomorrow since the shear ahead is extreme.

There seems to be 2 islands on the path of the typhoon......if it continues to weaken, that should be good news for those 2.....This is the most impressive storm I have ever tracked....

Hi oaba09. Long time no see. Very impressive, indeed. Glad to see it will miss all of you!

[oaba09]

That seems reasonable as it is definitely weakening. I expect rapid weakening tomorrow since the shear ahead is extreme.

There seems to be 2 islands on the path of the typhoon......if it continues to weaken, that should be good news for those 2.....This is the most impressive storm I have ever tracked....

Hi oaba09. Long time no see. Very impressive, indeed. Glad to see it will miss all of you!

Doing great ...Yeah, this is a record breaking system...We're fortunate to not have felt it's wrath.

[Aslkahuna]

STY June was more Wilma like as it bombed in November 1975 down to a measured 876 mb (which was then a new record) and a 3 mile diameter eye. It was also a large storm with 70kt gusts on Guam 200 miles away.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[neil40]

Greetings to all!

This system really stressed me out! Even a sub-amateur like myself will hold his breath upon seeing the size and strength of Nida. I hope it dies on open waters. Been reading all of your inputs and comments for the last 3 days.

[oaba09]

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA) HAS MAINTAINED A SYMMETRICAL
STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING VERY TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED 20-NM EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
DERIVED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND A
T7.5 FROM RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED TO REFLECT A
RECURVATURE SCENARIO.
B. STY NIDA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AN
AREA OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 48, IT IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE RIDGE AXIS
AND BEGIN RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST. A 26/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING
FROM CHICHIJIMA (NEAR 27N 142E) SHOWS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
SUPPORTING A RECURVATURE SCENARIO.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY NIDA WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
BECOMING A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH THE
NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF UKMET AND JGSM. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A
DRASTIC DEVIATION TO THE THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE TOWARDS THE
PHILIPPINES AFTER TAU 24.//
NNNN


**************************
Interesting, UKMET and JGSM still indicates a shift of direction going west......I dunno, I find this pretty unlikely considering the system's strength and the weakness on the STR....

[oaba09]

I'm not sure if I'm seeing a wobble but it seems like there's some sort of movement to the west on the latest sat loops...

[drdavisjr]

Hello everyone! Been super busy with work but this storm is grabbing my attention. Looks like most models indicate recurve with a couple outliers. I wonder how possible the UKMET scenario is?

Looking at the latest loops, it appears that the ridge to the north is building up...

Really an amazing storm so far - Did it surpass Tip?

[StormingB81]

Ozonepete..Long time no talk was wondering where you been. how you been

[ozonepete]

Ozonepete..Long time no talk was wondering where you been. how you been

Hello my friend, all is fine. And I hope all's well with you too. You'll always find me where the heaviest TCs are, and I'm sure I'll find you there too. As long as we're all safe and sound.

[ricmood]

Guys question, if incase (hope not) Nida turns to the west, will it still loose intensity?


BTW, I think last 3 sat loops shows NIDA moving more to the north.

[dexterlabio]

the power of positive thinking somehow works NIDA is really one heck of a supertyphoon, for the first time in my storm tracking, i have encountered a 160kt-STY. well, i hate to see this impressive typhoon die, haha, but of course i also hate to see a storm like this causing massive destruction. it becomes more certain, nida is expected to recurve and weaken as it moves into a unfavorable environment.