ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[jinftl]

Ida may or may not get added to that list....she would actually have to make landfall as a hurricane before she transitions to extratropical to count. Technically, if she stays off the coast of Louisiana and MS while a hurricane...a big 'if' as the NHC explained...and later comes ashore as an extratropical system in the panhandle, there won't be a 'landfalling hurricane'.

This is totally unbelievable! A hurricane watch for the Mississippi Gulf Coast. I do not know of a tropical system affecting our area ever in November.

Only 4 hurricanes have hit the US (since 1900) in the month of November.....they were all Cat 1 and they all hit Florida.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Cancun radar shows a well structured Ida with a distintive eyewall and a rounded eye.

[HURAKAN]

Windfield in the northern gulf

[RL3AO]

dropsondes also catch wind gusts. What was the MBL wind?

MBL was only 94

[dixiebreeze]

Don't forget Charlie

[artist]

Hurakin, or someone with the skills, can you overlay the track that Ida has followed on top of the sst's map?

[cycloneye]

OB 8

URNT15 KNHC 081551
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 08 20091108
154330 2638N 08825W 3926 07682 0365 -184 -244 178023 025 999 999 03
154400 2635N 08824W 3925 07683 0366 -180 -244 176026 027 999 999 03
154430 2633N 08823W 3922 07689 0366 -181 -244 175026 027 999 999 03
154500 2631N 08822W 3928 07676 0365 -178 -243 175028 030 999 999 03
154530 2629N 08821W 3922 07689 0366 -183 -243 170026 027 999 999 03
154600 2627N 08820W 3926 07682 0365 -183 -242 170026 027 999 999 03
154630 2625N 08819W 3926 07682 0366 -180 -242 171027 027 999 999 03
154700 2622N 08818W 3925 07684 0366 -180 -242 173025 026 999 999 03
154730 2620N 08817W 3926 07679 0366 -179 -242 174024 025 999 999 03
154800 2618N 08816W 3925 07683 0366 -179 -242 177024 024 999 999 03
154830 2616N 08815W 3926 07683 0366 -175 -242 177024 024 999 999 03
154900 2614N 08814W 3925 07683 0367 -179 -241 177024 024 999 999 03
154930 2611N 08813W 3926 07679 0366 -180 -241 179025 025 999 999 03
155000 2609N 08812W 3926 07683 0366 -180 -240 181025 026 999 999 03
155030 2607N 08811W 3925 07684 0367 -180 -240 182025 026 999 999 03
155100 2605N 08810W 3926 07681 0366 -180 -240 180022 023 999 999 03
155130 2603N 08809W 3926 07681 0368 -180 -239 186021 021 999 999 03
155200 2600N 08808W 3926 07683 0368 -180 -239 194024 026 028 001 03
155230 2558N 08806W 3925 07684 0366 -182 -239 196025 026 027 000 00
155300 2556N 08805W 3926 07683 0366 -185 -238 195025 026 027 001 00

[Dean4Storms]

Just so no one gets confused by the discussion here....the discussion is a general one....there is no forecast that is calling for Ida to have 115 mph winds...either as a hurricane or extratropical system...as she approaches the Gulf Coast and Florida. The current forecast calls for a 50 mph tropical storm transitioning into an equally squally extratropical low pressure late Tuesday. The biggest threats could be from coastal flooding and beach erosion in susceptible areas like the Florida Big Bend.

The probability of hurricane force winds during the next 5 days is under 5% for the entire U.S.

looking at the windfield of Ida per predictions from the models, it looks like they think she will be tropical. the highest winds tightly wrapped around the center. and i would think that a gale of that strength would be nearly impossible this far south. the 93' storm was probably a 1000 year event, though im just guessing at that one. lol

I was speaking of the models not the NHC forecast.

Those are probabilities from where she is positioned now, those probabilities will move northward and grow if she reaches the central Gulf and is still a hurricane as forecasted. There is good potential that the immediate coast could see hurricane force winds in gusts if nothing else depending on how fast the transition takes place, thus the Hurricane Watches!!

[tampastorm]

I am suprised they are saying IDA is going NW, The coordinates show a NNW motion and to me so does the radar. I guess they are assuming she resume NW?

[Sanibel]

I think the eye raggedness was merely Ida hitting the ridge. The new round shape is just Ida transitioning into the new steering feature and continuing on. It isn't accompanied by the black IR bursts Ida was showing last night:



http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

[tolakram]

And now a Hurricane, though of questionable tropical nature, on the coast.

I sense the NHC is going to handle this correctly, and ride the swirl all the way in, for consistency sake.



Impressive high speed visible images, if you missed it before.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Like some have said, it seems to be intensifying again

[cycloneye]

OB 9

URNT15 KNHC 081601
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 09 20091108
155330 2554N 08804W 3925 07682 0366 -185 -237 193026 026 028 000 00
155400 2552N 08803W 3926 07680 0365 -181 -236 190028 030 027 000 00
155430 2549N 08802W 3926 07680 0365 -176 -236 178027 028 027 000 00
155500 2547N 08801W 3926 07679 0365 -175 -236 176026 027 027 000 00
155530 2545N 08800W 3926 07680 0365 -173 -236 181025 027 026 000 00
155600 2543N 08759W 3922 07688 0364 -173 -235 172023 024 027 000 00
155630 2541N 08758W 3926 07680 0364 -173 -235 153024 024 027 000 00
155700 2539N 08757W 3925 07681 0363 -175 -233 149025 026 028 000 00
155730 2536N 08756W 3927 07676 0363 -175 -233 151025 028 028 000 00
155800 2534N 08755W 3924 07681 0363 -180 -232 147021 022 028 000 00
155830 2532N 08754W 3929 07671 0362 -176 -231 152022 023 028 000 00
155900 2530N 08753W 3926 07679 0362 -175 -229 153020 020 028 000 00
155930 2528N 08752W 3926 07677 0361 -176 -228 145019 019 029 000 00
160000 2525N 08751W 3926 07674 0359 -175 -226 137020 020 029 000 00
160030 2523N 08750W 3926 07672 0358 -175 -226 136021 021 029 000 00
160100 2521N 08749W 3926 07674 0359 -175 -225 134021 021 029 000 00
160130 2519N 08748W 3927 07672 0361 -176 -224 130028 031 030 000 00
160200 2516N 08747W 3928 07683 0371 -177 -225 117041 043 031 000 00
160230 2514N 08746W 3925 07691 0369 -181 -225 122039 041 032 000 00
160300 2512N 08745W 3926 07674 0372 -180 -225 137038 039 031 000 00

[Derek Ortt]

dropsondes also catch wind gusts. What was the MBL wind?

MBL was only 94

that yields 75-80KT at the surface

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z going more conventional with a Panhandle landfall and turning her in to a MONSTER Noreaster rater than the dive SE....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[cycloneye]

I find it interesting that recon is flying at 400mb level right now on there way to IDA and in there obs there are indicating that the winds are only 23kt at that level. Not too bad right now over the northern gom.

Winds increasing in the central gulf.

160200 2516N 08747W 3928 07683 0371 -177 -225 117041 043 031 000 00
160230 2514N 08746W 3925 07691 0369 -181 -225 122039 041 032 000 00
160300 2512N 08745W 3926 07674 0372 -180 -225 137038 039 031 000 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

back pendaling all day today.. hehe I love it.. Im sure everyone is having fun.. lol

Im waiting for that pretty little eye to show up anytime time now...

[cycloneye]

OB 10

URNT15 KNHC 081611
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 10 20091108
160330 2510N 08744W 3927 07707 0394 -174 -225 141037 038 033 000 00
160400 2508N 08743W 3927 07707 0395 -174 -225 135032 034 033 002 00
160430 2506N 08742W 3923 07719 0396 -175 -225 137028 029 030 005 00
160500 2504N 08741W 3927 07706 0395 -175 -224 140026 027 028 001 00
160530 2502N 08740W 3926 07718 0397 -176 -224 137026 027 025 000 00
160600 2500N 08739W 3927 07708 0396 -178 -224 139028 028 025 000 00
160630 2458N 08739W 3926 07703 0396 -176 -224 125032 034 026 000 00
160700 2456N 08738W 3929 07708 0397 -175 -225 129031 031 026 000 00
160730 2454N 08737W 3927 07711 0397 -175 -226 138032 033 026 000 00
160800 2452N 08736W 3925 07711 0397 -172 -226 131033 033 027 000 00
160830 2450N 08735W 3926 07708 0396 -171 -226 135031 032 026 000 00
160900 2448N 08734W 3928 07709 0396 -174 -225 129033 034 027 000 00
160930 2446N 08733W 3926 07713 0396 -171 -225 120036 037 028 000 00
161000 2445N 08732W 3926 07715 0395 -170 -225 120038 038 029 001 00
161030 2443N 08731W 3927 07706 0396 -167 -225 121035 036 029 004 00
161100 2441N 08731W 3927 07708 0396 -168 -224 118032 033 031 005 00
161130 2439N 08730W 3926 07715 0397 -167 -223 119034 036 031 003 00
161200 2437N 08729W 3926 07711 0397 -165 -221 123035 036 030 003 00
161230 2435N 08728W 3924 07714 0395 -163 -219 120035 037 029 002 00
161300 2433N 08727W 3924 07713 0394 -168 -216 118031 034 030 003 00