ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[KWT]

Unless it has a tiny one like Claudette did wxman57!

Still more then likely if there is any ciruclation its going to be aloft at the moment, as others have said if there is any development over the next 24hrs its going to be slow. I also still think this has a decent enough chance of being a hurricane 4-5 days down the line just before any landfall, should have good conditions IMO.

[otowntiger]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
358 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...



WED-FRI...AXIS OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
STATE AT MIDWEEK WITH A INITIALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME. UPR
LOW OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPECTED TO BECOME CUTOFF WHILE
REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WL LEAD TO ISOLD/SCT PRECIP
OVER THE COAST AND MARINE AREA TRANSITIONING INLAND WITH SCT
COVERAGE INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION TURNS TO NEXT
TROPICAL FEATURE CURRENTLY NORTH OF LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITH A FORECAST RECURVATURE NORTHWARD
WHILE REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE STATE. NO DIRECT WEATHER EFFECTS
ON LOCAL WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED. BY FRIDAY UPR TROUGH ASCD WITH
REMNANT OF GULF UPR LOW AND WEAK STEERING WL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POP ACROSS AREA.




.MARINE...

SEAS SHOW A SLOW DECREASE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK BUT WL
INCREASE DUE TO INITIAL FETCH FROM DEVELOPING SYSTEM WELL EAST OF
THE STATE AROUND THURSDAY WITH FULLY ARISEN CONDITIONS THU OR
EARLY FRI. ABSOLUTE SEA HEIGHTS REMAIN QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES OF DEVELOPMENT OF FEATURE AND HAVE UNDERCUT
ADVERTISED WAVE WATCH ADVERTISED PEAK HEIGHTS AT THIS EARLY STAGE.
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED LATER FOR SEAS AROUND THURSDAY.

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

Well if the local weather office sounds this confident about it missing us, then I won't worry about it. Usually they err on the side of caution but they very clearly say its not going to be a problem for us. That's saying a lot. For the most part Florida has been very lucky the last 3-4 years.

[Derek Ortt]

floater on it at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[Derek Ortt]

center may be just north of Puerto Rico. While a little better organized, it is doing so slowly

[Blown Away]

Wxman, you think the broad center is back near 57W??

[jlauderdal]

I don't think this should be a code red just yet. Anyways, I am watching this one closely from South Florida. It does not seem likely it will affect us right now, but things change.

why not code red, the code red criteria has been met according to their 8 am outlook

Just my opinion, sure it is getting better organized but it does not look like a Red yet, but that is just me.

keep in mind that the coding system is based on the feature out in time not how it looks now but how it is expected to look down the road

[KWT]

center may be just north of Puerto Rico. While a little better organized, it is doing so slowly

Yeah thats what some of us were thinking until the TCFA came out placing the center in the deep convection furtherest SE. Certainly seems to be a little confusing!

[Shaun2453]

Convection is popping everywhere, not really a good indication of a center.

Newbie question:

How can you tell convection is popping. Is there something you can see/ identify (perhaps the several 'mushrooms' in the image) or is it something else?

Thanks in advance.

[jlauderdal]

must had a hiccup in the software....the red is gone now....

the written word from the analysis at 8 is more important than the cheesy graphics

I dont know JL...I tend to enjoy cheesy graphics.....

well i do like there shaded area better than just sticking an "L" on the map and letting us a guess where the actual area of concern is...if you like cheesy graphics than zip over to accuwx and checkout their tropical maps, its great for anyone that likes to be in the cone of destruction because they like the all encompassing cone

[otowntiger]

FYIW The 00Z ECMWF is slightly more west than the 12Z, with this system brushing the NW bahamas whereas previously it was east of the Bahamas. A few more shifts and it could be close to Florida. Although it does not look like it will impact FL, we know how things can change quickly with the path and intensity of tropical systems.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082500!!/

nah, we're good. The local NWS office, Melbourne has already pretty much said we ain't got nothin' to worry about out of this system anyway.

[Steve H.]

Truely looks to be the year of the Trough. Good news for us, unless the Caribbean is cooking next month. But we in Florida should still watch it no doubt.

[Derek Ortt]

center may be just north of Puerto Rico. While a little better organized, it is doing so slowly

Yeah thats what some of us were thinking until the TCFA came out placing the center in the deep convection furtherest SE. Certainly seems to be a little confusing!

that TCFA is in the wrong position

[Air Force Met]

Just my opinion, sure it is getting better organized but it does not look like a Red yet, but that is just me.

I would say it is red...there is at least a 50% chance of development and that is all red is saying. You have sustained convection over a sharp wave (no...no LLC yet)...and an improving upper level environment.

Red isn't saying it will go...just the odds are there.

[Derek Ortt]

Will say something else

the chances of a landfall may be just a little lower than this time yesterday. This looks to have move every so slightly slower than forecast. Yes, EC/CMC still indicate landfall. However, we need to watch for a center to form closer to the GFS (it sure is not there now, the greatest turning is not far from Puerto Rico). If we get formation or reformation to the north, this thing i likely a goner

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

AL, 92, 2009082512, , BEST, 0, 216N, 630W, 25, 1010, DB

[wxman57]

center may be just north of Puerto Rico. While a little better organized, it is doing so slowly

Lowest pressure is just north of PR, well south of convection. I think we'll have a TD in 24-36 hours, not today though.

[HURAKAN]

Convection is popping everywhere, not really a good indication of a center.

Newbie question:

How can you tell convection is popping. Is there something you can see/ identify (perhaps the several 'mushrooms' in the image) or is it something else?

Thanks in advance.

Normally when there is a center you will see convection developing where the low pressure is. In this case, since there is no low level circulation at the moment, convection is popping (those overshooting cloudtops that you see in the image) everywhere.

[KWT]

I heard earlier on that PR did breifly have west winds showing which would back up the idea of something maybe slowly trying to start developing in that area but we shall see, it may be in the early phases of trying to do something but recon wil lgive us a good idea.

[ronjon]

I see a broad center of CC turning north of PR near 21N-65.5W. If low pressure develops here, it is much closer to the Euro/CMC position than GFS. The 06Z GFS develops its low at 21N-61W under the heavy convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[Blown Away]

center may be just north of Puerto Rico. While a little better organized, it is doing so slowly

Lowest pressure is just north of PR, well south of convection. I think we'll have a TD in 24-36 hours, not today though.

Hey Wxman how about posting one of those purdy maps w/ the crosshair for the center.